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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: MercadoLibre $MELI stock is up +28.91% YTD & yet the company trades for a valuation ~7% CHEAPER than it was at the start of the year ๐ธ Strong stock price, stronger fundamentals ๐๐ฝ https://t.co/Prjeh9bW3iโฆ
๏ฟฝ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ tweet
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ tweet
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โ Quiver Quantitative
President Trump has announced new 25% auto tariffs on cars made outside the US.
Since Teslas are made in the USA, they will likely not be as impacted as other manufacturers.
$TSLA was included in our Trump Donor Portfolio launched on Autopilot, for obvious reasons.
Performance since election:
Tesla $TSLA: +14% (though it's been bumpy)
Ford $F: -4%
General Motors $GM: -8%
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President Trump has announced new 25% auto tariffs on cars made outside the US.
Since Teslas are made in the USA, they will likely not be as impacted as other manufacturers.
$TSLA was included in our Trump Donor Portfolio launched on Autopilot, for obvious reasons.
Performance since election:
Tesla $TSLA: +14% (though it's been bumpy)
Ford $F: -4%
General Motors $GM: -8%
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
This is absolutely insane:
The US just posted a 2-month goods trade deficit of $301 BILLION as companies attempt to front-run tariffs.
We have rarely ever seen a 2-month trade deficit even HALF as large, a CLEAR sign of panic.
What is happening here?
(a thread) https://t.co/83VOlPHBGC
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This is absolutely insane:
The US just posted a 2-month goods trade deficit of $301 BILLION as companies attempt to front-run tariffs.
We have rarely ever seen a 2-month trade deficit even HALF as large, a CLEAR sign of panic.
What is happening here?
(a thread) https://t.co/83VOlPHBGC
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Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
US investor sentiment is declining:
The share of consumers expecting higher stock prices over the next 12 months fell 9.3 points in March, to 37.4%, the lowest in a year.
This marks the largest monthly decline since the March 2020 market crash.
Over the last 4 months, this percentage has plummeted 19 points from a record 56.4%.
Meanwhile, 44% of Americans now expect lower stock prices over the next 12 months, the highest share since the 2022 bear market peak of 45%.
To put this into perspective, at the 2008 peak, 55% of consumers expected lower stock prices.
Market sentiment has collapsed.
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US investor sentiment is declining:
The share of consumers expecting higher stock prices over the next 12 months fell 9.3 points in March, to 37.4%, the lowest in a year.
This marks the largest monthly decline since the March 2020 market crash.
Over the last 4 months, this percentage has plummeted 19 points from a record 56.4%.
Meanwhile, 44% of Americans now expect lower stock prices over the next 12 months, the highest share since the 2022 bear market peak of 45%.
To put this into perspective, at the 2008 peak, 55% of consumers expected lower stock prices.
Market sentiment has collapsed.
This is absolutely insane:
The US just posted a 2-month goods trade deficit of $301 BILLION as companies attempt to front-run tariffs.
We have rarely ever seen a 2-month trade deficit even HALF as large, a CLEAR sign of panic.
What is happening here?
(a thread) https://t.co/83VOlPHBGC tweet
Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @PelosiTracker_: Is your politician "Insider trading"?
Let's find out ๐งข https://t.co/Vr7d0un3o0
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RT @PelosiTracker_: Is your politician "Insider trading"?
Let's find out ๐งข https://t.co/Vr7d0un3o0
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
What is happening with consumersโ perception of the economy?
27% of Americans expect business conditions to worsen over the next 6 months, the highest share since Q2 2022.
This is even higher than 2020 and the second-highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Additionally, the employment outlook dropped to its lowest level in 12 years.
As a result, 67% of Americans perceive the likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months as somewhat likely or very likely, the highest share in 10 months.
Consumers are getting even more pessimistic about the economy.
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What is happening with consumersโ perception of the economy?
27% of Americans expect business conditions to worsen over the next 6 months, the highest share since Q2 2022.
This is even higher than 2020 and the second-highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Additionally, the employment outlook dropped to its lowest level in 12 years.
As a result, 67% of Americans perceive the likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months as somewhat likely or very likely, the highest share in 10 months.
Consumers are getting even more pessimistic about the economy.
This is absolutely insane:
The US just posted a 2-month goods trade deficit of $301 BILLION as companies attempt to front-run tariffs.
We have rarely ever seen a 2-month trade deficit even HALF as large, a CLEAR sign of panic.
What is happening here?
(a thread) https://t.co/83VOlPHBGC tweet
Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump has granted a full and unconditional pardon to Trevor Milton, the former CEO of Nikola Motors.
In October 2022, Milton was convicted on one count of securities fraud and two counts of wire fraud. https://t.co/HOFIQ7aYre
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BREAKING: President Trump has granted a full and unconditional pardon to Trevor Milton, the former CEO of Nikola Motors.
In October 2022, Milton was convicted on one count of securities fraud and two counts of wire fraud. https://t.co/HOFIQ7aYre
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AkhenOsiris
WSJ:
- Inside the Trump administration, inflation has been a concern among Trumpโs economic team, even if he rarely addresses it publicly, according to three people familiar with the matter.
- People familiar with Trumpโs thinking say he is likely to impose few, if any, tariffs on the energy sector, in large part because of those concerns.
- An executive at one of the automakers said they were baffled by the desire to both impose tariffsโbut also tell car companies they couldnโt raise prices.
โThe math would tell you, thatโs going to cost us multibillions of dollars,โ the executive said. โSo who pays for that?โ
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WSJ:
- Inside the Trump administration, inflation has been a concern among Trumpโs economic team, even if he rarely addresses it publicly, according to three people familiar with the matter.
- People familiar with Trumpโs thinking say he is likely to impose few, if any, tariffs on the energy sector, in large part because of those concerns.
- An executive at one of the automakers said they were baffled by the desire to both impose tariffsโbut also tell car companies they couldnโt raise prices.
โThe math would tell you, thatโs going to cost us multibillions of dollars,โ the executive said. โSo who pays for that?โ
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
Gold prices have moved in a straight-line higher adding $7 trillion in market cap in 12 months.
Does this ever happen in a โhealthyโ economy? https://t.co/9h6psLgHrZ
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Gold prices have moved in a straight-line higher adding $7 trillion in market cap in 12 months.
Does this ever happen in a โhealthyโ economy? https://t.co/9h6psLgHrZ
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