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The Kobeissi Letter
How often do market corrections lead to a recession in the US?
There have been 60 S&P 500 corrections including the most recent one, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
Historically, in 12% of corrections, a recession had already begun in the previous 12 months.
32% of the time a recession took place within the next 12 months.
In 56% of corrections, the US avoided an economic downturn within the next 12 months.
In other words, market corrections are only accompanied by a recession ~44% of the time.
Can we avoid a recession this time?
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How often do market corrections lead to a recession in the US?
There have been 60 S&P 500 corrections including the most recent one, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
Historically, in 12% of corrections, a recession had already begun in the previous 12 months.
32% of the time a recession took place within the next 12 months.
In 56% of corrections, the US avoided an economic downturn within the next 12 months.
In other words, market corrections are only accompanied by a recession ~44% of the time.
Can we avoid a recession this time?
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Novonesis $NSISB DC
Thesis: Novonesis is a global biosolutions powerhouse formed from the merger of Novozym and Chr Hansen, focused on sustainable innovations in consumer products and industrial processes, with strong growth potential driven by effective commercialization and cost synergies.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Novonesis $NSISB DC
Thesis: Novonesis is a global biosolutions powerhouse formed from the merger of Novozym and Chr Hansen, focused on sustainable innovations in consumer products and industrial processes, with strong growth potential driven by effective commercialization and cost synergies.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Kobeissi Letter
Just 63% of Americans are currently able to come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need, the lowest in at least 10 years.
This percentage has declined by 9 points since February 2020, according to the NY Fed.
This comes as household debt hits record highs with pandemic-era savings have been depleted.
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been spent by Americans since mid-2021.
At the same time, US household debt has risen to a record $18.0 trillion.
All while core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 46 straight months.
US consumers are struggling.
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Just 63% of Americans are currently able to come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need, the lowest in at least 10 years.
This percentage has declined by 9 points since February 2020, according to the NY Fed.
This comes as household debt hits record highs with pandemic-era savings have been depleted.
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been spent by Americans since mid-2021.
At the same time, US household debt has risen to a record $18.0 trillion.
All while core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 46 straight months.
US consumers are struggling.
The collapse of US consumers:
Unemployment expectations in the US are now ABOVE 2020 levels and at their highest since 2008.
In 2024, a poll showed that a whopping 56% of Americans thought the US was in a recession.
Is the US set to enter a recession?
(a thread) https://t.co/iQhcQkRGUv tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is concerning:
41.8% of US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages have received an application rejection, the highest share in over 12 years.
The percentage has QUADRUPLED since October 2023, according to the NY Fed.
Many Americans are seeking to refinance to tap into their recently accumulated housing equity.
This would help to cover rising costs of living and other debt expenses.
Lack of refinancing could at some point force people to sell their homes.
Something must give.
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This is concerning:
41.8% of US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages have received an application rejection, the highest share in over 12 years.
The percentage has QUADRUPLED since October 2023, according to the NY Fed.
Many Americans are seeking to refinance to tap into their recently accumulated housing equity.
This would help to cover rising costs of living and other debt expenses.
Lack of refinancing could at some point force people to sell their homes.
Something must give.
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App Economy Insights
Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security.
Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. https://t.co/cEyUTLaejr
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Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security.
Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. https://t.co/cEyUTLaejr
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 💳 Klarna IPO $KLAR
I spent hours reviewing the F-1 so you don't have to.
https://t.co/TWiuSIHqVL
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RT @EconomyApp: 💳 Klarna IPO $KLAR
I spent hours reviewing the F-1 so you don't have to.
https://t.co/TWiuSIHqVL
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AkhenOsiris
Tariff man continues and reiterates no need for Canadian cars and lumber...and NQ ticked higher!
We are fucking back!
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Tariff man continues and reiterates no need for Canadian cars and lumber...and NQ ticked higher!
We are fucking back!
Trump, asked why he’s tougher on Canada than U.S. adversaries: Only because it's meant to be our 51st state. One of the nastiest countries to deal with is Canada. — Fox interview - NewsWiretweet
The All-In Podcast
🇺🇸 all-in takes dc!
@chamath and @friedberg sat down with @USTreasury secretary @SecScottBessent for an incredible long-form interview
-- main street vs wall street
-- the trump admin's economic strategy
-- scott's involvement in the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992
-- how to de-regulate the american economy
-- doge + dc grifts
++ much more!
(0:00) chamath and friedberg describe their adventures in dc and welcome treasury secretary scott bessent!
(2:12) scott's background, what drew him to equities, the role of macro investors
(7:22) the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992, and how it relates to main street vs wall street today
(21:30) scott explains the trump administration's economic strategy
(32:45) how this administration plans to de-regulate the economy, fed relationship, re-financing debt
(42:06) doge, dc grifts, shakeup at the irs
(50:51) re-engineering social security through the us sovereign wealth fund, how energy factors in
(1:00:02) surprises, fixing affordability, thoughts on president trump
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🇺🇸 all-in takes dc!
@chamath and @friedberg sat down with @USTreasury secretary @SecScottBessent for an incredible long-form interview
-- main street vs wall street
-- the trump admin's economic strategy
-- scott's involvement in the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992
-- how to de-regulate the american economy
-- doge + dc grifts
++ much more!
(0:00) chamath and friedberg describe their adventures in dc and welcome treasury secretary scott bessent!
(2:12) scott's background, what drew him to equities, the role of macro investors
(7:22) the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992, and how it relates to main street vs wall street today
(21:30) scott explains the trump administration's economic strategy
(32:45) how this administration plans to de-regulate the economy, fed relationship, re-financing debt
(42:06) doge, dc grifts, shakeup at the irs
(50:51) re-engineering social security through the us sovereign wealth fund, how energy factors in
(1:00:02) surprises, fixing affordability, thoughts on president trump
tweet
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Alvin
This is an appreciation post for MediaTek Dimensity 9400.
Such an underrated smartphone chip.
After using phones like the OPPO Find X8 Pro and vivo X200 Pro, I noticed that they share so many common improvements. Too much of a coincidence to be a coincidence.
For example: the fact that they both run cool even after a prolonged heavy gaming session. No huge throttling too.
Also, they have improved the ISP significantly.
As a result, the camera performance of the Find X8 Pro and X200 Pro seems to be much more reliable even when compared to their Ultra predecessors running a Snapdragon chip.
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This is an appreciation post for MediaTek Dimensity 9400.
Such an underrated smartphone chip.
After using phones like the OPPO Find X8 Pro and vivo X200 Pro, I noticed that they share so many common improvements. Too much of a coincidence to be a coincidence.
For example: the fact that they both run cool even after a prolonged heavy gaming session. No huge throttling too.
Also, they have improved the ISP significantly.
As a result, the camera performance of the Find X8 Pro and X200 Pro seems to be much more reliable even when compared to their Ultra predecessors running a Snapdragon chip.
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Hidden Value Gems
I took a black cab after a concert yesterday as Uber was taking too long to connect to a driver.
The black cab cost me £50, while Uber was under 20 (Exec £37).
Bad decision financially, but got another evidence of the power of the platform. A driver always with clients can charge 60% less and the service is usually better for customers b/c of speed of delivery. Finding a black cab in a residential area is almost impossible.
Network effects can be so powerful.
Need to revisit $Uber case.
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I took a black cab after a concert yesterday as Uber was taking too long to connect to a driver.
The black cab cost me £50, while Uber was under 20 (Exec £37).
Bad decision financially, but got another evidence of the power of the platform. A driver always with clients can charge 60% less and the service is usually better for customers b/c of speed of delivery. Finding a black cab in a residential area is almost impossible.
Network effects can be so powerful.
Need to revisit $Uber case.
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