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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: A federal judge has ruled that actions taken by Elon Musk and DOGE to close USAID were unconstitutional.
Has ordered DOGE reinstate almost all of USAID's functionality. https://t.co/2AOOrroQVI
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BREAKING: A federal judge has ruled that actions taken by Elon Musk and DOGE to close USAID were unconstitutional.
Has ordered DOGE reinstate almost all of USAID's functionality. https://t.co/2AOOrroQVI
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The Kobeissi Letter
US consumers are pulling back spending on dining out:
Restaurant and bar retail sales dropped -1.5% month-over-month in February, the biggest decline in 2 years.
This marks the second monthly decrease out of the last three.
As a result, restaurant sales have plummeted by an -8.5% annual rate over the last 3 months, the most since Q1 2022 when GDP contracted by -1.0%.
This is a sharp decline from the high-single-digit growth seen in Q3 2024.
This comes as food inflation has been a major issue with food away from home prices rising ~30% over the last 5 years.
Dining out is officially a luxury.
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US consumers are pulling back spending on dining out:
Restaurant and bar retail sales dropped -1.5% month-over-month in February, the biggest decline in 2 years.
This marks the second monthly decrease out of the last three.
As a result, restaurant sales have plummeted by an -8.5% annual rate over the last 3 months, the most since Q1 2022 when GDP contracted by -1.0%.
This is a sharp decline from the high-single-digit growth seen in Q3 2024.
This comes as food inflation has been a major issue with food away from home prices rising ~30% over the last 5 years.
Dining out is officially a luxury.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund on Intertek $ITRK LN
Thesis: Intertek is a leading global testing and assurance company poised to benefit from increasing regulatory demands and the green transition, supported by high barriers to entry and a growing focus on quality assurance.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund on Intertek $ITRK LN
Thesis: Intertek is a leading global testing and assurance company poised to benefit from increasing regulatory demands and the green transition, supported by high barriers to entry and a growing focus on quality assurance.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Finding Compounders
Great read
Capital Cycle Analysis helps to identify investments with high and sustainable returns https://t.co/85vLuoiKpU
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Great read
Capital Cycle Analysis helps to identify investments with high and sustainable returns https://t.co/85vLuoiKpU
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The Kobeissi Letter
How often do market corrections lead to a recession in the US?
There have been 60 S&P 500 corrections including the most recent one, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
Historically, in 12% of corrections, a recession had already begun in the previous 12 months.
32% of the time a recession took place within the next 12 months.
In 56% of corrections, the US avoided an economic downturn within the next 12 months.
In other words, market corrections are only accompanied by a recession ~44% of the time.
Can we avoid a recession this time?
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How often do market corrections lead to a recession in the US?
There have been 60 S&P 500 corrections including the most recent one, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
Historically, in 12% of corrections, a recession had already begun in the previous 12 months.
32% of the time a recession took place within the next 12 months.
In 56% of corrections, the US avoided an economic downturn within the next 12 months.
In other words, market corrections are only accompanied by a recession ~44% of the time.
Can we avoid a recession this time?
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Novonesis $NSISB DC
Thesis: Novonesis is a global biosolutions powerhouse formed from the merger of Novozym and Chr Hansen, focused on sustainable innovations in consumer products and industrial processes, with strong growth potential driven by effective commercialization and cost synergies.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Novonesis $NSISB DC
Thesis: Novonesis is a global biosolutions powerhouse formed from the merger of Novozym and Chr Hansen, focused on sustainable innovations in consumer products and industrial processes, with strong growth potential driven by effective commercialization and cost synergies.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Kobeissi Letter
Just 63% of Americans are currently able to come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need, the lowest in at least 10 years.
This percentage has declined by 9 points since February 2020, according to the NY Fed.
This comes as household debt hits record highs with pandemic-era savings have been depleted.
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been spent by Americans since mid-2021.
At the same time, US household debt has risen to a record $18.0 trillion.
All while core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 46 straight months.
US consumers are struggling.
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Just 63% of Americans are currently able to come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need, the lowest in at least 10 years.
This percentage has declined by 9 points since February 2020, according to the NY Fed.
This comes as household debt hits record highs with pandemic-era savings have been depleted.
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been spent by Americans since mid-2021.
At the same time, US household debt has risen to a record $18.0 trillion.
All while core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 46 straight months.
US consumers are struggling.
The collapse of US consumers:
Unemployment expectations in the US are now ABOVE 2020 levels and at their highest since 2008.
In 2024, a poll showed that a whopping 56% of Americans thought the US was in a recession.
Is the US set to enter a recession?
(a thread) https://t.co/iQhcQkRGUv tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is concerning:
41.8% of US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages have received an application rejection, the highest share in over 12 years.
The percentage has QUADRUPLED since October 2023, according to the NY Fed.
Many Americans are seeking to refinance to tap into their recently accumulated housing equity.
This would help to cover rising costs of living and other debt expenses.
Lack of refinancing could at some point force people to sell their homes.
Something must give.
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This is concerning:
41.8% of US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages have received an application rejection, the highest share in over 12 years.
The percentage has QUADRUPLED since October 2023, according to the NY Fed.
Many Americans are seeking to refinance to tap into their recently accumulated housing equity.
This would help to cover rising costs of living and other debt expenses.
Lack of refinancing could at some point force people to sell their homes.
Something must give.
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App Economy Insights
Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security.
Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. https://t.co/cEyUTLaejr
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Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security.
Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. https://t.co/cEyUTLaejr
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