Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
2025 has been brutal for the mag 7 📉
as of monday's close, mag 7 market caps were down a collective ~$2T
-- $tsla -45%
-- $nvda -20%
-- $goog -12%
-- $amzn -11%
-- $msft -10%
-- $aapl -9%
-- $meta +2%
on this year's predictions show in early january, @chamath picked the mag 7 as his biggest business loser for 2025.
" I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
" And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
this year, we partnered with @polymarket to turn bestie prognostications into prediction markets:
"Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?"
what do you think? 👇
tweet
2025 has been brutal for the mag 7 📉
as of monday's close, mag 7 market caps were down a collective ~$2T
-- $tsla -45%
-- $nvda -20%
-- $goog -12%
-- $amzn -11%
-- $msft -10%
-- $aapl -9%
-- $meta +2%
on this year's predictions show in early january, @chamath picked the mag 7 as his biggest business loser for 2025.
" I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
" And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
this year, we partnered with @polymarket to turn bestie prognostications into prediction markets:
"Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?"
what do you think? 👇
Major Mag 7 Drawdown: You Heard It Here First 🔮
So far this year, the Mag 7 has seen over $1.5T wiped off of their collective market caps.
Who could have seen that coming!?
On the 2025 All-In predictions show, @chamath predicted a Mag 7 pullback in the trillions of dollars:
"I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
"And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
" And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown."
"And unfortunately, I don't see how you can inoculate yourself from that risk."
"It could even be 10%, but 10% will be a couple trillion bucks." tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Tesla stock, $TSLA, falls another -5% in overnight trading, now down over -20% including the regular trading session’s drop.
The stock is on track to open near its most oversold daily RSI reading in history. https://t.co/PekkxWa5q9
tweet
BREAKING: Tesla stock, $TSLA, falls another -5% in overnight trading, now down over -20% including the regular trading session’s drop.
The stock is on track to open near its most oversold daily RSI reading in history. https://t.co/PekkxWa5q9
The REAL reason markets are crashing:
Over the last 2 months, the S&P 500 and crypto have erased a combined -$5.5 TRILLION of market cap.
We have just witnessed one of the most SUDDEN shifts in sentiment since 2020.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/uPh9qGWfa5 tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Bitcoin officially falls below $77,000 for the first time since November 10th.
Bitcoin is now down -30% from its all time high. https://t.co/bOvoBLrvrH
tweet
BREAKING: Bitcoin officially falls below $77,000 for the first time since November 10th.
Bitcoin is now down -30% from its all time high. https://t.co/bOvoBLrvrH
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
This is insane:
Nasdaq 100 futures are currently casually down another -300 points in after hours trading.
This puts today's total losses at -1050 points, or -5.8%, today ALONE.
If the market was open, we would be -1.2% away from a circuit breaker.
Panic selling has arrived. https://t.co/qpErqYwkMo
tweet
This is insane:
Nasdaq 100 futures are currently casually down another -300 points in after hours trading.
This puts today's total losses at -1050 points, or -5.8%, today ALONE.
If the market was open, we would be -1.2% away from a circuit breaker.
Panic selling has arrived. https://t.co/qpErqYwkMo
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
A reminder on how market Circuit Breakers work:
With many retail investors now facing their first potential bear market, Circuit Breakers are back in discussion.
1. Circuit Breaker 1: If the S&P 500 falls -7% below the previous day’s close before 3:25 PM ET, trading stops for 15 minutes.
2. Circuit Breaker 2: If the S&P 500 falls -13% below the previous day’s close before 3:25 PM ET, trading stops for 15 minutes.
3. Circuit Breaker 3: If the S&P 500 falls -20% below the previous day’s close, trading stops for the remainder of the day, regardless of what time it is.
NOTE: For Circuit Breakers 1 and 2, if the S&P 500 falls -7% or -13% AFTER 3:25 PM ET, trading will NOT stop.
These thresholds also apply for the Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
tweet
A reminder on how market Circuit Breakers work:
With many retail investors now facing their first potential bear market, Circuit Breakers are back in discussion.
1. Circuit Breaker 1: If the S&P 500 falls -7% below the previous day’s close before 3:25 PM ET, trading stops for 15 minutes.
2. Circuit Breaker 2: If the S&P 500 falls -13% below the previous day’s close before 3:25 PM ET, trading stops for 15 minutes.
3. Circuit Breaker 3: If the S&P 500 falls -20% below the previous day’s close, trading stops for the remainder of the day, regardless of what time it is.
NOTE: For Circuit Breakers 1 and 2, if the S&P 500 falls -7% or -13% AFTER 3:25 PM ET, trading will NOT stop.
These thresholds also apply for the Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Total US put option volume just hit its highest level on record, per ZeroHedge.
Shorts are going all-in. https://t.co/aX7CHkYbHA
tweet
BREAKING: Total US put option volume just hit its highest level on record, per ZeroHedge.
Shorts are going all-in. https://t.co/aX7CHkYbHA
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures post a near 400-point reversal in 3 hours and turn GREEN overnight. https://t.co/lSbON4YhKb
tweet
BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures post a near 400-point reversal in 3 hours and turn GREEN overnight. https://t.co/lSbON4YhKb
tweet
Offshore
Video
App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 📊 This Week in Visuals:
$AVGO $COST $SE $MRVL $JD $TGT $FLUT $VEEV $IOT $HPE $MDB $BBY $ONON $OKTA $GTLB $CELH
Check out the latest earnings 👇 https://t.co/JiHKY0Btf4
tweet
RT @EconomyApp: 📊 This Week in Visuals:
$AVGO $COST $SE $MRVL $JD $TGT $FLUT $VEEV $IOT $HPE $MDB $BBY $ONON $OKTA $GTLB $CELH
Check out the latest earnings 👇 https://t.co/JiHKY0Btf4
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Heading into tomorrow:
1. Nasdaq 100 futures have posted a 350+ point red to green reversal
2. Nasdaq 100 index is down -12% in 13 trading days
3. Total US put option volume just hit its highest level on record
4. Many large cap tech stocks are down 30%+ from all time high
5. Fear & Greed Index is at Extreme Fear levels
Are we overdue for a massive short squeeze?
tweet
Heading into tomorrow:
1. Nasdaq 100 futures have posted a 350+ point red to green reversal
2. Nasdaq 100 index is down -12% in 13 trading days
3. Total US put option volume just hit its highest level on record
4. Many large cap tech stocks are down 30%+ from all time high
5. Fear & Greed Index is at Extreme Fear levels
Are we overdue for a massive short squeeze?
tweet