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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Delta Air Lines stock, $DAL, falls as much as -14% after reporting earnings and cutting guidance due to "weaker US demand."
This puts the stock down nearly -20% including its regular hours decline.
Consumer spending is dialing back. https://t.co/yS7wEtdsuS
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BREAKING: Delta Air Lines stock, $DAL, falls as much as -14% after reporting earnings and cutting guidance due to "weaker US demand."
This puts the stock down nearly -20% including its regular hours decline.
Consumer spending is dialing back. https://t.co/yS7wEtdsuS
The interview that BROKE the market:
24 hours ago, President Trump joined Fox News and acknowledged a recession MAY be coming.
This marked a CLEAR shift in sentiment today, with the S&P 500 now down -$5 TRILLION in 13 trading days.
Here's exactly what happened.
(a thread) https://t.co/1MRGl8gx6p tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
Our thoughts on today's market crash, the worst drop since 2022:
1. Heading into this week, investor confidence was at a pivot point.
2. We were at the point where investors were debating whether to "buy the dip" or a broader decline has begun.
3. President Trump saying he is "not watching the stock market" on March 6th began the first signs of panic selling.
4. Then, his interview on Fox News Sunday night made it clear that Trump is WILLING to weather a market downturn to obtain his policy objectives.
5. These objectives include lowering interest rates, lowering inflation, and reducing the US trade deficit.
6. Why is this important? Because the precedent in Trump's first term is that he would do whatever it takes to support asset prices.
7. This now marks the first sign of willingness to allow markets to fall to obtain goals which Trump believes will be a net benefit to the US long-term.
Effectively, the market is trading on the narrative that President Trump has said himself, multiple times.
"Short-term pain for long-term gain" has become a reality.
Read more in our thread below.
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Our thoughts on today's market crash, the worst drop since 2022:
1. Heading into this week, investor confidence was at a pivot point.
2. We were at the point where investors were debating whether to "buy the dip" or a broader decline has begun.
3. President Trump saying he is "not watching the stock market" on March 6th began the first signs of panic selling.
4. Then, his interview on Fox News Sunday night made it clear that Trump is WILLING to weather a market downturn to obtain his policy objectives.
5. These objectives include lowering interest rates, lowering inflation, and reducing the US trade deficit.
6. Why is this important? Because the precedent in Trump's first term is that he would do whatever it takes to support asset prices.
7. This now marks the first sign of willingness to allow markets to fall to obtain goals which Trump believes will be a net benefit to the US long-term.
Effectively, the market is trading on the narrative that President Trump has said himself, multiple times.
"Short-term pain for long-term gain" has become a reality.
Read more in our thread below.
The interview that BROKE the market:
24 hours ago, President Trump joined Fox News and acknowledged a recession MAY be coming.
This marked a CLEAR shift in sentiment today, with the S&P 500 now down -$5 TRILLION in 13 trading days.
Here's exactly what happened.
(a thread) https://t.co/1MRGl8gx6p tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Echoes of 2020 - 2022 over-extended pumps followed by strong sell offs $PLTR $HIMS $MSTR https://t.co/jFl3Pj3Z2l
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Echoes of 2020 - 2022 over-extended pumps followed by strong sell offs $PLTR $HIMS $MSTR https://t.co/jFl3Pj3Z2l
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Jim Cramer says “don’t let Monday’s sell-off scare you out of the market entirely.” https://t.co/TSiVcqZpH1
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BREAKING: Jim Cramer says “don’t let Monday’s sell-off scare you out of the market entirely.” https://t.co/TSiVcqZpH1
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures fall another -160 points in after hours trade.
Nasdaq futures are now down nearly -900 points today. https://t.co/4YnyDqF0ck
tweet
BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures fall another -160 points in after hours trade.
Nasdaq futures are now down nearly -900 points today. https://t.co/4YnyDqF0ck
The interview that BROKE the market:
24 hours ago, President Trump joined Fox News and acknowledged a recession MAY be coming.
This marked a CLEAR shift in sentiment today, with the S&P 500 now down -$5 TRILLION in 13 trading days.
Here's exactly what happened.
(a thread) https://t.co/1MRGl8gx6p tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @KobeissiLetter: The REAL reason markets are crashing:
Over the last 2 months, the S&P 500 and crypto have erased a combined -$5.5 TRILLION of market cap.
We have just witnessed one of the most SUDDEN shifts in sentiment since 2020.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/uPh9qGWfa5
tweet
RT @KobeissiLetter: The REAL reason markets are crashing:
Over the last 2 months, the S&P 500 and crypto have erased a combined -$5.5 TRILLION of market cap.
We have just witnessed one of the most SUDDEN shifts in sentiment since 2020.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/uPh9qGWfa5
tweet
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The All-In Podcast
2025 has been brutal for the mag 7 📉
as of monday's close, mag 7 market caps were down a collective ~$2T
-- $tsla -45%
-- $nvda -20%
-- $goog -12%
-- $amzn -11%
-- $msft -10%
-- $aapl -9%
-- $meta +2%
on this year's predictions show in early january, @chamath picked the mag 7 as his biggest business loser for 2025.
" I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
" And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
this year, we partnered with @polymarket to turn bestie prognostications into prediction markets:
"Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?"
what do you think? 👇
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2025 has been brutal for the mag 7 📉
as of monday's close, mag 7 market caps were down a collective ~$2T
-- $tsla -45%
-- $nvda -20%
-- $goog -12%
-- $amzn -11%
-- $msft -10%
-- $aapl -9%
-- $meta +2%
on this year's predictions show in early january, @chamath picked the mag 7 as his biggest business loser for 2025.
" I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
" And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
this year, we partnered with @polymarket to turn bestie prognostications into prediction markets:
"Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?"
what do you think? 👇
Major Mag 7 Drawdown: You Heard It Here First 🔮
So far this year, the Mag 7 has seen over $1.5T wiped off of their collective market caps.
Who could have seen that coming!?
On the 2025 All-In predictions show, @chamath predicted a Mag 7 pullback in the trillions of dollars:
"I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
"And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
" And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown."
"And unfortunately, I don't see how you can inoculate yourself from that risk."
"It could even be 10%, but 10% will be a couple trillion bucks." tweet