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The Kobeissi Letter
Americans are becoming less bullish on equities:
46.8% of consumers expected stock prices to rise over the next 12 months in February, the lowest share since April 2024.
This was down from 54.2% in January, marking the largest monthly drop since the March 2020 crash.
Despite that, this percentage is still near its highest levels since 1987.
To put this into perspective, the long-term average is 35.1%.
Meanwhile, 32.8% of Americans anticipated stock prices to decrease over the year in February, up from 24.8% in the prior month.
Sentiment is shifting.
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Americans are becoming less bullish on equities:
46.8% of consumers expected stock prices to rise over the next 12 months in February, the lowest share since April 2024.
This was down from 54.2% in January, marking the largest monthly drop since the March 2020 crash.
Despite that, this percentage is still near its highest levels since 1987.
To put this into perspective, the long-term average is 35.1%.
Meanwhile, 32.8% of Americans anticipated stock prices to decrease over the year in February, up from 24.8% in the prior month.
Sentiment is shifting.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
CI Australian Equities Fund on HMC Capital $HMC AU
Thesis: HMC Capital is positioned for significant growth, aiming to increase its AUM from ~$17.5bn to ~$50bn over the next 3-5 years, leveraging its strong management team and diverse investment platforms.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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CI Australian Equities Fund on HMC Capital $HMC AU
Thesis: HMC Capital is positioned for significant growth, aiming to increase its AUM from ~$17.5bn to ~$50bn over the next 3-5 years, leveraging its strong management team and diverse investment platforms.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Hidden Value Gems
“Marginal companies, cheap as hell in 1929, did not outperform the Coca-Cola's who were brutally expensive. The Coca-Cola's went down 75%, but the very cheap stocks, the number 7, 8, 9 automobile companies and so on, they all went out of business, and the ones that survived went down 96%. And when you're starting from 4 out of 100, to go back and catch up the Coca-Cola's who are still at 30, you have to go up 6 or 7 times just to get back in the game.
The 30s was a pretty good ultimate reminder that things are cheap, usually for a pretty good reason, so you have to tread carefully. If you're going to play the cheap game, you've got to make sure it is armor-plated with as much quality as you can get into it.”
- Jeremy Grantham
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“Marginal companies, cheap as hell in 1929, did not outperform the Coca-Cola's who were brutally expensive. The Coca-Cola's went down 75%, but the very cheap stocks, the number 7, 8, 9 automobile companies and so on, they all went out of business, and the ones that survived went down 96%. And when you're starting from 4 out of 100, to go back and catch up the Coca-Cola's who are still at 30, you have to go up 6 or 7 times just to get back in the game.
The 30s was a pretty good ultimate reminder that things are cheap, usually for a pretty good reason, so you have to tread carefully. If you're going to play the cheap game, you've got to make sure it is armor-plated with as much quality as you can get into it.”
- Jeremy Grantham
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The Kobeissi Letter
How low will Bitcoin go in 2025?
Over the last 5 days, prediction markets have shifted forecasts for Bitcoin to bottom at $62,000.
Since February 23rd, this forecast has fallen by ~$18,000, per @Kalshi.
Furthermore, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 before 2026 have fallen from 55% down to 29%.
There has been a clear shift in sentiment.
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How low will Bitcoin go in 2025?
Over the last 5 days, prediction markets have shifted forecasts for Bitcoin to bottom at $62,000.
Since February 23rd, this forecast has fallen by ~$18,000, per @Kalshi.
Furthermore, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 before 2026 have fallen from 55% down to 29%.
There has been a clear shift in sentiment.
tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
President Trump says that the US will use Ukrainian rare earths for AI and weapons: https://t.co/urrhar2Nvi
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President Trump says that the US will use Ukrainian rare earths for AI and weapons: https://t.co/urrhar2Nvi
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 US GDP growth has dropped from +3.9% to -1.5% in 3 weeks.
This means the Atlanta Fed now sees the US economy shrinking in Q1 2025.
What is happening here? https://t.co/7pLbo95dKG
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RT @TKL_Adam: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 US GDP growth has dropped from +3.9% to -1.5% in 3 weeks.
This means the Atlanta Fed now sees the US economy shrinking in Q1 2025.
What is happening here? https://t.co/7pLbo95dKG
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