Offshore

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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Yesterday I stated:

“Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵”

Today, $INTU opened +13%✅

As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽

“While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety

Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵

I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $525💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~7% below todays price)

Given today’s estimates, at $525💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple”

A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.74x
•10-Year Mean: 33.55x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.60%
•10-Year Mean: 3.68%

As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.63B

$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 22x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%

$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.24B
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 14.40%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.49
•2024: $16.94
•CAGR: 17.11%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%

SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 14.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.37%) required growth rate:

2025E: $19.32 (14.1% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.13 (14.5% YoY)
2027E: $25.09 (13.4% YoY)

$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.09 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

32x P/E: $802.88💵 … ~16.1% CAGR

31x P/E: $777.79💵 … ~14.6% CAGR

30x P/E: $752.70💵 … ~13.0% CAGR

29x P/E: $727.61💵 … ~11.5% CAGR

28x P/E: $702.52💵 … ~10.0% CAGR

While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety

Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵

I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $525💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~7% below todays price)

Given today’s estimates, at $525💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀[...]

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