โ Quiver Quantitative
The net worth numbers on this 38M view post appear to be made up.
Nancy Pelosi is actually worth significantly more: $269M by our estimates.
McConnell, Warren, and Schumer are all worth significantly less.
I'd encourage people to use Quiver for politician portfolio tracking, because there are a lot of celebrity net worth sites that just make up numbers.
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The net worth numbers on this 38M view post appear to be made up.
Nancy Pelosi is actually worth significantly more: $269M by our estimates.
McConnell, Warren, and Schumer are all worth significantly less.
I'd encourage people to use Quiver for politician portfolio tracking, because there are a lot of celebrity net worth sites that just make up numbers.
Nancy Pelosi
Annual salary: $223,000
Net worth: $202 million
Mitch McConnell
Annual salary: $200,000
Net worth: $95 million
Chuck Schumer
Annual salary: $210,000
Net worth: $75 million
Elizabeth Warren
Annual salary: $285,000
Net worth: $67 million
@elonmusk @DOGE tweet
twitter.com
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โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: ๐จBREAKING: New Insider Purchase
The Chief Commercial Officer of $AMD has just reported purchasing $500K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 16%.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
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RT @InsiderRadar: ๐จBREAKING: New Insider Purchase
The Chief Commercial Officer of $AMD has just reported purchasing $500K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 16%.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
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AkhenOsiris
Ok Larry Balik can fuck off now. The gaming thesis was bullshit.
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Ok Larry Balik can fuck off now. The gaming thesis was bullshit.
Too many Larry Balik posts, can APP just go up after earns - AkhenOsiristweet
Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: @elonmusk released the first version of a government-wide org chart on the @DOGE website.
You can view breakdowns of the federal workforce by agency, seeing the average employee wage, age, and tenure. https://t.co/jSUphmtgtp
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BREAKING: @elonmusk released the first version of a government-wide org chart on the @DOGE website.
You can view breakdowns of the federal workforce by agency, seeing the average employee wage, age, and tenure. https://t.co/jSUphmtgtp
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Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
Abrams Capital (ex Baupost) increased its stake in Vistry to 10.2%
#Vistry $VTY.L https://t.co/yAaUuCYx5e
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Abrams Capital (ex Baupost) increased its stake in Vistry to 10.2%
#Vistry $VTY.L https://t.co/yAaUuCYx5e
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
ARAR Fund on Nippon Shindo $5753 JT
Thesis: Nippon Shindo is a Japanese Net-Net with significant cash on its balance sheet, a low P/E of 5, growing profits, and potential for future shareholder value creation amidst pressure to utilize its cash.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/8oxafkgJ7H
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ARAR Fund on Nippon Shindo $5753 JT
Thesis: Nippon Shindo is a Japanese Net-Net with significant cash on its balance sheet, a low P/E of 5, growing profits, and potential for future shareholder value creation amidst pressure to utilize its cash.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/8oxafkgJ7H
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Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
Who would have guessed? European banks performed in line with Mag7 since 2021!
"The striking statistic is partly a reminder of the importance of choosing the right time series โ go back to the start of 2015 and banking sector returns are pretty much static; the Mag 7 rises to 2,700%. Still, it does highlight that, sometimes, beaten down value stocks do rear their heads again."
h/t @NicholasMegaw
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Who would have guessed? European banks performed in line with Mag7 since 2021!
"The striking statistic is partly a reminder of the importance of choosing the right time series โ go back to the start of 2015 and banking sector returns are pretty much static; the Mag 7 rises to 2,700%. Still, it does highlight that, sometimes, beaten down value stocks do rear their heads again."
h/t @NicholasMegaw
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Offshore
Video
โ Startup Archive
Marc Andreessen on why we shouldnโt encourage people to be entrepreneurs
โThe idea of being an entrepreneur has been a romanticized concept. There used to be TV shows talking about how fun it was. And people ask questions, โHow do we encourage more people to be entrepreneurs?โ And my answer was always: no, we shouldnโt do that. People shouldnโt be encouraged to do something that painful. They should do it because they really want to do it. In fact, they should do it because they canโt not do it.โ
Marc continues:
โItโs tremendously painful. Most of the experience of being in business as a startup is being told no. You need all these things: employees, financing, customers. Then you go around all day long asking people for those things and they tell you no. Half the time they donโt even respond. And then just when you think you get it working, a new competitor emerges and just starts punching you square in the face. The minute you think your product is working, thereโs a problem in it, and you have to do a recall. Itโs just this constant rolling horror story.โ
Video source: @ChrisWillx (2024)
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Marc Andreessen on why we shouldnโt encourage people to be entrepreneurs
โThe idea of being an entrepreneur has been a romanticized concept. There used to be TV shows talking about how fun it was. And people ask questions, โHow do we encourage more people to be entrepreneurs?โ And my answer was always: no, we shouldnโt do that. People shouldnโt be encouraged to do something that painful. They should do it because they really want to do it. In fact, they should do it because they canโt not do it.โ
Marc continues:
โItโs tremendously painful. Most of the experience of being in business as a startup is being told no. You need all these things: employees, financing, customers. Then you go around all day long asking people for those things and they tell you no. Half the time they donโt even respond. And then just when you think you get it working, a new competitor emerges and just starts punching you square in the face. The minute you think your product is working, thereโs a problem in it, and you have to do a recall. Itโs just this constant rolling horror story.โ
Video source: @ChrisWillx (2024)
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $NVR ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 14.44x
โข10-Year Mean: 15.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 6.99%
โข10-Year Mean: 6.43%
As you can see, $NVR appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~6% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVR is a good business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $2.56B
โขLong-Term Debt: $0.91B
$NVR has a strong balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & >50x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 34.7%
โข2020: 24.4%
โข2021: 35.7%
โข2022: 50.8%
โข2023: 36.2%
โข2024: 41.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 42.3%
โข2020: 33.1%
โข2021: 40.5%
โข2022: 53.0%
โข2023: 40.4%
โข2024: 39.2%
$NVR has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $4.45B
โข2024: $10.69B
โขCAGR: 9.15%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $0.15B
โข2023*: $1.47B
โขCAGR: 28.86%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $63.50
โข2024: $506.69
โขCAGR: 23.08%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 4.44M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 3.32M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~25%, $NVR increased its EPS by ~33% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 25.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 20.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 15.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVR has to grow earnings at a 7.22% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (7.22%) required growth rate:
2025E: $505.44 (-0.2% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $553.26 (9.5% YoY)
2027E: $608.00 (9.9% YoY)
$NVR has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $NVR ends 2027 with $608.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
17x P/E: $804.48๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR
16x P/E: $779.34๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR
15x P/E: $9120๐ต โฆ ~8.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $8512๐ต โฆ ~5.5% CAGR
13x P/E: $7904๐ต โฆ ~2.8% CAGR
We would have to assume >16x multiple for $NVR to have attractive return potential
While $NVR is an excellent business, I donโt want to rely on 16x as this doesnโt leave us with a margin of safety
As you can see in the first photo, $NVR traded for <13x ~5 times in the past 5 years & given the nature of its business, we may very likely see it trade for ~13x within the next couple of years
i consider $nvr a good purchase with a decent margin of safety closer to $6500๐ต, or ~13x ntm earnings (~10% below todays price)
given todayโs estimates, at $6500๐ต i can reasonably expect ~10% cagr while assuming 14x
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. <a href='ht[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $NVR ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 14.44x
โข10-Year Mean: 15.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 6.99%
โข10-Year Mean: 6.43%
As you can see, $NVR appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~6% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVR is a good business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $2.56B
โขLong-Term Debt: $0.91B
$NVR has a strong balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & >50x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 34.7%
โข2020: 24.4%
โข2021: 35.7%
โข2022: 50.8%
โข2023: 36.2%
โข2024: 41.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 42.3%
โข2020: 33.1%
โข2021: 40.5%
โข2022: 53.0%
โข2023: 40.4%
โข2024: 39.2%
$NVR has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $4.45B
โข2024: $10.69B
โขCAGR: 9.15%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $0.15B
โข2023*: $1.47B
โขCAGR: 28.86%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $63.50
โข2024: $506.69
โขCAGR: 23.08%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 4.44M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 3.32M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~25%, $NVR increased its EPS by ~33% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 25.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 20.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 15.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVR has to grow earnings at a 7.22% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (7.22%) required growth rate:
2025E: $505.44 (-0.2% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $553.26 (9.5% YoY)
2027E: $608.00 (9.9% YoY)
$NVR has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $NVR ends 2027 with $608.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
17x P/E: $804.48๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR
16x P/E: $779.34๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR
15x P/E: $9120๐ต โฆ ~8.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $8512๐ต โฆ ~5.5% CAGR
13x P/E: $7904๐ต โฆ ~2.8% CAGR
We would have to assume >16x multiple for $NVR to have attractive return potential
While $NVR is an excellent business, I donโt want to rely on 16x as this doesnโt leave us with a margin of safety
As you can see in the first photo, $NVR traded for <13x ~5 times in the past 5 years & given the nature of its business, we may very likely see it trade for ~13x within the next couple of years
i consider $nvr a good purchase with a decent margin of safety closer to $6500๐ต, or ~13x ntm earnings (~10% below todays price)
given todayโs estimates, at $6500๐ต i can reasonably expect ~10% cagr while assuming 14x
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. <a href='ht[...]