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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: After properly assessing the company’s overvaluation, here’s a brief update on $MANH
Using 2027 EPS estimate of $5.85:
45x P/E: $263.25💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
40x P/E: $234.00💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
35x P/E: $204.75💵 … ~1.0% CAGR
I’d have to assume >40x given today’s estimates which leaves me with no margin of safety
While it is an excellent business, I’d likely get more interested in $MANH closer to $170💵 where I could reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 35x multiple
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RT @DimitryNakhla: After properly assessing the company’s overvaluation, here’s a brief update on $MANH
Using 2027 EPS estimate of $5.85:
45x P/E: $263.25💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
40x P/E: $234.00💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
35x P/E: $204.75💵 … ~1.0% CAGR
I’d have to assume >40x given today’s estimates which leaves me with no margin of safety
While it is an excellent business, I’d likely get more interested in $MANH closer to $170💵 where I could reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 35x multiple
10 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH suggesting it was overvalued at $257💵
I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵
Despite a strong run, $MANH just plummeted -23% post-Q4 earnings 📉
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”
#stocks #investing tweet
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 📊 This Week in Visuals:
☁️ Amazon $AMZN
💊 Eli Lilly $LLY
🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk $NVO
🦠 Merck $MRK
🏰 Disney $DIS
🥤 PepsiCo $PEP
🕵️ Palantir $PLTR
and more!
https://t.co/iYGlk19a9k
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RT @EconomyApp: 📊 This Week in Visuals:
☁️ Amazon $AMZN
💊 Eli Lilly $LLY
🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk $NVO
🦠 Merck $MRK
🏰 Disney $DIS
🥤 PepsiCo $PEP
🕵️ Palantir $PLTR
and more!
https://t.co/iYGlk19a9k
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Offshore
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Startup Archive
The five things Sam Altman looks for in a founder
In the clip below, Sam Altman talks through the five things he believes makes really great founders special and what he would look for in a cofounder.
#1: “I always figure it out” and “I never give up”
“There are two phrases that come to mind if I were trying to pick what our top 10 most successful founders would have said about themselves when we were interviewing them at YC: ‘I always figure it out’ and ‘I never give up’… Everyone thinks that really matters is how smart they are, or their domain expertise, or their network… But it really is this kind of personality trait. People have different phrases for it: determination, relentlessly resourceful is one that Paul Graham uses. But that spirit is the most important factor, I think, in successful founders.”
#2 Focus, self-belief, personal connections
“There are three things that we have observed about how successful founders get things done: Focus, self-belief, and personal connections… And in fact, if I were looking for a cofounder, I would look for that. Does this person have a relentless focus? Are they just going to get this one thing done and keep their blinders on and not get distracted by shiny objects along the way? Do they actually believe that this is possible? Because momentum is this crazily self-fulfilling prophecy. Can they form the personal connections that it takes to be successful? Will they be able to recruit and retain a world-class team? Will they be able to sell their product? Will they be able to raise money? Will they be able to talk to the press? The ability to form these personal connections is super important.”
#3 Clear vision, thought, and communication
“Almost all of the best startups that we have ever been involved with, from the very first time we met those founders, they were able to very concisely and clearly communicate what they were doing in ~25 words. And I don’t know why this is so important—maybe that you need to spread the message. But I can certainly say that founders who aren’t good at this don’t really go on to be successful… You can prove this to yourself quickly by looking at the founders of really successful companies. They’re all good at this. So I think this is an area to invest in and get better at.”
#4 Ability to attract people to work on the company
“Recruiting that 20th employee is really hard. You need an exciting vision and you need to be good at communication and personal relationships.
#5 Ability to get a huge amount of work done themselves
“The best founders just get a huge amount of work done themselves. So in the early days especially, you kind of have to do everything and there’s a lot to do. And so having focus and maniacal productivity is really important.”
Video source: @WaterlooENG (2017)
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The five things Sam Altman looks for in a founder
In the clip below, Sam Altman talks through the five things he believes makes really great founders special and what he would look for in a cofounder.
#1: “I always figure it out” and “I never give up”
“There are two phrases that come to mind if I were trying to pick what our top 10 most successful founders would have said about themselves when we were interviewing them at YC: ‘I always figure it out’ and ‘I never give up’… Everyone thinks that really matters is how smart they are, or their domain expertise, or their network… But it really is this kind of personality trait. People have different phrases for it: determination, relentlessly resourceful is one that Paul Graham uses. But that spirit is the most important factor, I think, in successful founders.”
#2 Focus, self-belief, personal connections
“There are three things that we have observed about how successful founders get things done: Focus, self-belief, and personal connections… And in fact, if I were looking for a cofounder, I would look for that. Does this person have a relentless focus? Are they just going to get this one thing done and keep their blinders on and not get distracted by shiny objects along the way? Do they actually believe that this is possible? Because momentum is this crazily self-fulfilling prophecy. Can they form the personal connections that it takes to be successful? Will they be able to recruit and retain a world-class team? Will they be able to sell their product? Will they be able to raise money? Will they be able to talk to the press? The ability to form these personal connections is super important.”
#3 Clear vision, thought, and communication
“Almost all of the best startups that we have ever been involved with, from the very first time we met those founders, they were able to very concisely and clearly communicate what they were doing in ~25 words. And I don’t know why this is so important—maybe that you need to spread the message. But I can certainly say that founders who aren’t good at this don’t really go on to be successful… You can prove this to yourself quickly by looking at the founders of really successful companies. They’re all good at this. So I think this is an area to invest in and get better at.”
#4 Ability to attract people to work on the company
“Recruiting that 20th employee is really hard. You need an exciting vision and you need to be good at communication and personal relationships.
#5 Ability to get a huge amount of work done themselves
“The best founders just get a huge amount of work done themselves. So in the early days especially, you kind of have to do everything and there’s a lot to do. And so having focus and maniacal productivity is really important.”
Video source: @WaterlooENG (2017)
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App Economy Insights
$MCD McDonald's Q4 FY24:
• Global comparable sales +0.4% Y/Y.
• Systemwide sales +2% Y/Y.
• Revenue -0.3% Y/Y to $6.4B ($90M miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.83 ($0.03 miss). https://t.co/nhaNfJAAb6
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$MCD McDonald's Q4 FY24:
• Global comparable sales +0.4% Y/Y.
• Systemwide sales +2% Y/Y.
• Revenue -0.3% Y/Y to $6.4B ($90M miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.83 ($0.03 miss). https://t.co/nhaNfJAAb6
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Quiver Quantitative
Facebook stock, $META, has now risen 26% since Marjorie Taylor Greene bought in. https://t.co/7RcnUTXY0X
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Facebook stock, $META, has now risen 26% since Marjorie Taylor Greene bought in. https://t.co/7RcnUTXY0X
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Quiver Quantitative
This keeps getting wilder.
We posted this report on Nancy Pelosi's purchase of Tempus AI call options last month.
$TEM has now risen 123% since her trade.
Up again today. https://t.co/Qns4yq5Ihm
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This keeps getting wilder.
We posted this report on Nancy Pelosi's purchase of Tempus AI call options last month.
$TEM has now risen 123% since her trade.
Up again today. https://t.co/Qns4yq5Ihm
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: We just received an update on the portfolio of Florida's state retirement fund.
They opened a $1.9M position in Trump Media, $DJT.
They are now one of the largest institutional holders of the stock, per our data. https://t.co/OKnOaUwCIx
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BREAKING: We just received an update on the portfolio of Florida's state retirement fund.
They opened a $1.9M position in Trump Media, $DJT.
They are now one of the largest institutional holders of the stock, per our data. https://t.co/OKnOaUwCIx
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