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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
I think it’s time for investors to begin appreciating $AMZN earnings & margin expansion potential
Historically, EPS wasn’t the best way to value $AMZN, but now it trades for slightly less than ~40x TTM (FY 24 EPS of $5.15), likely growing at ~20% a year for the next few years 💸
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I think it’s time for investors to begin appreciating $AMZN earnings & margin expansion potential
Historically, EPS wasn’t the best way to value $AMZN, but now it trades for slightly less than ~40x TTM (FY 24 EPS of $5.15), likely growing at ~20% a year for the next few years 💸
Amazon $AMZN Q4 2024 Report 🗓️
✅ Revenues: $187.8B (+10% YoY)
✅ Operating Income: $21.2B (+60% YoY)
✅ Net Income: $20.0B (+88% YoY)
☁️ AWS Revenue: $28.7B (+19% YoY)
💸 Ads Revenue: $17.3B (+18% YoY) https://t.co/JddBGLylqZ tweet
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App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon Q4 FY24:
• Revenue +10% Y/Y to $187.8B ($0.5B beat).
• Operating margin 11% (+4pp Y/Y).
• FCF $38B TTM.
• Q1 Guidance: ~$153B ($5B miss).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +19% Y/Y to $28.8B.
• Operating margin 37% (+7pp Y/Y). https://t.co/o8X8UXRGQ8
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$AMZN Amazon Q4 FY24:
• Revenue +10% Y/Y to $187.8B ($0.5B beat).
• Operating margin 11% (+4pp Y/Y).
• FCF $38B TTM.
• Q1 Guidance: ~$153B ($5B miss).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +19% Y/Y to $28.8B.
• Operating margin 37% (+7pp Y/Y). https://t.co/o8X8UXRGQ8
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Patient Capital Management on IAC Inc. $IAC US
Thesis: IAC Inc. is poised for value creation through strategic asset spin-offs and an attractive valuation that highlights untapped potential in its private holdings.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/Hx4xa1cNCS
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Patient Capital Management on IAC Inc. $IAC US
Thesis: IAC Inc. is poised for value creation through strategic asset spin-offs and an attractive valuation that highlights untapped potential in its private holdings.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/Hx4xa1cNCS
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Capital Employed
FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #107 with Sam and Joel from Chess Capital.
They provide a fantastic breakdown of two UK small caps there bullish on. 👇
https://t.co/O64YwQslhE https://t.co/vW4zExKZmI
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FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #107 with Sam and Joel from Chess Capital.
They provide a fantastic breakdown of two UK small caps there bullish on. 👇
https://t.co/O64YwQslhE https://t.co/vW4zExKZmI
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InsideArbitrage
Veritas Is Said in Talks to Acquire Data Firm Dun & Bradstreet $DNB - Bloomberg
📊The private equity firm is talking to banks about financing a potential take-private of the Jacksonville, Florida-based company.
📊The deal under discussion would value Dun & Bradstreet at or around its current market capitalization of about $5.4 billion.
📊Options that Dun & Bradstreet is considering also include separating its finance and risk unit from the sales and marketing business. It’s talking to potential strategic buyers for those assets.
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Veritas Is Said in Talks to Acquire Data Firm Dun & Bradstreet $DNB - Bloomberg
📊The private equity firm is talking to banks about financing a potential take-private of the Jacksonville, Florida-based company.
📊The deal under discussion would value Dun & Bradstreet at or around its current market capitalization of about $5.4 billion.
📊Options that Dun & Bradstreet is considering also include separating its finance and risk unit from the sales and marketing business. It’s talking to potential strategic buyers for those assets.
Dun & Bradstreet $DNB confirmed that it has received inbound interest from third parties and has retained Bank of America $BAC to assist with those inquiries. tweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Focus CM on Kingsgate Consolidated Limited $KCN AU
Thesis: Kingsgate is an undervalued Australian gold mining company poised to generate significant cash flow from its recently reopened Chatree mine in Thailand, forecasting robust production and profitability in the coming years.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Focus CM on Kingsgate Consolidated Limited $KCN AU
Thesis: Kingsgate is an undervalued Australian gold mining company poised to generate significant cash flow from its recently reopened Chatree mine in Thailand, forecasting robust production and profitability in the coming years.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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InsideArbitrage
Alumis $ALMS to Acquire Acelyrin $SLRN in an All-Stock Deal :
💊Under the terms of the agreement, Acelyrin stockholders will receive 0.4274 shares of Alumis common stock for each share of Acelyrin common stock owned. The deal is valued at $2.82 per share, representing a 48.42% premium from the stock’s last close.
💊The transaction is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2025. Post completion, Alumis stockholders will own about 55% of the combined company, while Acelyrin stockholders will hold about 45%.
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Alumis $ALMS to Acquire Acelyrin $SLRN in an All-Stock Deal :
💊Under the terms of the agreement, Acelyrin stockholders will receive 0.4274 shares of Alumis common stock for each share of Acelyrin common stock owned. The deal is valued at $2.82 per share, representing a 48.42% premium from the stock’s last close.
💊The transaction is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2025. Post completion, Alumis stockholders will own about 55% of the combined company, while Acelyrin stockholders will hold about 45%.
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Startup Archive
RT @BoredElonMusk: But number go up ⬆️ I don’t understand why this didn’t succeed.
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RT @BoredElonMusk: But number go up ⬆️ I don’t understand why this didn’t succeed.
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke explains Goodhart’s law and why he doesn’t like KPIs or OKRs
“Goodhart’s law is real. The moment a metric becomes a goal, it’s no longer a useful metric… No metric by itself is a complete heuristic for a complex business. There’s a million different tensions in a company, and you can’t keep all of them in harmony by optimizing for one thing.”
For this reason, Shopify doesn’t use KPIs or OKRs. But as Tobi explains, this doesn’t mean they don’t value data and metrics.
“We are extremely data informed. We have invested enormous amounts of money and time into systems that give us basically everything at our fingertips… But what Shopify attempts to do is just not over-fit for what’s quantifiable.”
People love optimizing for highly-quantifiable things because there’s immediate gratification that comes from seeing a number go up. But Tobi thinks that the most important aspects of a product are rarely quantifiable:
“The overlap of the most valuable things you can do with a product and the things that happen to be fully quantifiable are like maybe 20%. Which leaves 80% of a value space unaddressable by the people who only look at quantifiable things.”
He continues:
“Shopify is comfortable with unquantifiable things like taste, quality, passion, love, hate… The sort of deep satisfaction that a craftsperson feels when they’ve done a job well is actually a better proxy if you allow it to be.”
They then have robust analytics systems that tell the company if something’s wrong or a new rollout breaks something.
“We think about it as a cockpit for a pilot. The decisions are still made by pilots, and we think this leads to better results… I think there needs to be more acceptance in business of unquantifiable things… And then metrics take a support function.”
Video source: @lennysan (2025) tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 2 years ago, when $ELF traded at $104, I predicted a potential 30-40% downturn 📉
Since then, the stock trades -37% lower 🎯 https://t.co/ttf7scPOm4
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Less than 2 years ago, when $ELF traded at $104, I predicted a potential 30-40% downturn 📉
Since then, the stock trades -37% lower 🎯 https://t.co/ttf7scPOm4
On June 6, 2023 I stated: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ELF trade 30-40% lower if the fundamentals don’t substantially improve”
$ELF is now down -16% since
“In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. But in the long run, it is a weighing machine” — Ben Graham 🗣️ https://t.co/CZcMcvJpa9 tweet