⁠App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: $MSFT Microsoft Q2 FY25 (ending December):

☁️ Azure +31% Y/Y fx neutral (vs. 34% in Q1).
🤖 AI revenue annual rate +175% Y/Y to $13B.

• Revenue +12% Y/Y to $69.6B ($0.8B beat).
• Gross margin 69% (+1pp Y/Y)
• Operating margin 45% (+2pp Y/Y).
• EPS $3.13 ($0.13 beat). https://t.co/5WLaFHFZUW
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New Insider Purchase

A director of $GM has just reported purchasing $607K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 225%.

This is the first insider trade he has made since joining the company's board last September.
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AkhenOsiris
Atta boy Andy, make Daddy Musk happy...until he gets booted by Trump

Amazon is ramping up ad spending on Elon Musk’s X, according to people familiar with the situation, a major shift after pulling much of its advertising more than a year ago, a time when many brands had concerns about hate speech on the platform.

Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy was involved in the decision, which could result in the company spending significantly more on X. Apple, which pulled all of its ad dollars from X in late 2023, in recent weeks has had discussions about testing out ads on the platform, according to a person familiar with the situation.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: @chettan_guevara That’s how I approach investing as well 💯 … patience & knowing when to buy can really enhance returns while simultaneously increasing margin of safety

Investment professionals generally advise against market timing, but I advocate for patience in selecting individual stocks, waiting for the market to offer exceptional opportunities with quality compounders

Looking back at 2024, here are 8 examples where my timing paid off🧵 - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @EntryLevelInves: There are few people I can trust when it comes to valuing good companies. One is Dimitry.

You can never time the market but you can always be rational and not over pay.

Investment professionals generally advise against market timing, but I advocate for patience in selecting individual stocks, waiting for the market to offer exceptional opportunities with quality compounders

Looking back at 2024, here are 8 examples where my timing paid off🧵 - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: $TSLA Tesla Q4 FY24:

• Revenue +2% Y/Y to $25.7B ($1.4B miss).
• Gross margin 16% (-1pp Y/Y).
• Operating margin 6% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Capex +21% Y/Y to $2.8B.
• Free cash flow -2% Y/Y to $2.0B.
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.73 ($0.04 miss). https://t.co/d6lzAWh4Fo
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⁠Capital Employed
38 ‘fresh-off-the-press’ stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks 👇

https://t.co/3XUaCb1nU6 https://t.co/1j56z3WYaK
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⁠InsideArbitrage
RT @JusticeATR: Justice Department Sues to Block Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s Proposed $14 Billion Acquisition of Rival Wireless Networking Technology Provider Juniper Networks

https://t.co/sN1iQ3MBnq
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Symmetry on CTT $CTT PL

Thesis: CTT is poised for significant growth, with a strong transition from mail delivery to a leading Express & Parcel operator in Iberia, underpinned by favorable market conditions, high barriers to entry, recent transformative M&A deals, and a projected 250% upside in stock value within three years.

(Extract from their report)
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⁠Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on what he doesn’t like about the Lean Startup

Thiel believes there are merits to the Lean Startup, but he thinks founders today may have over-indexed on it:

“I do think we tend to be dominated by a somewhat nihilistic bias where we claim not to know anything. And when you don’t know anything, you end up defaulting too much to the experimental search, A/B testing approach of ‘Let’s ask the customers.’ And I would say the problem with that is that the search space is simply way too big.”

In practice, Thiel argues for a more definite view of the future: “This is an important problem that needs to be solved, and this is the set of things we have to combine in just this way to do it.”

To be fair, Steve Blank—who pioneered the Lean Startup methodology—isn’t necessarily against this approach. Blank just recommends treating your assumptions as “a series of untested hypotheses.”

But there’s clearly a balance between having a definite view of the future and rigorously trying to disprove your assumptions.

As Thiel explains, many of the PayPal founding team’s initial assumptions were wrong:

“At PayPal, our original business plan was to have payments on Palm Pilots, then it was wireless payments, then it was payments linked to email. So we had a few fairly big pivots in the first year. I’m not sure there’s anything especially virtuous about that — if you have a dumb idea, it’s important to change it — but it’s not virtuous to have a really bad idea in the first place.”

Video source: @OxfordSBS (2015)
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @ArthurMacwaters: Super helpful framework

1) treat your company as a set of hypotheses and test them empirically + through user interviews

2) have a definite view of what the world will look like

Peter Thiel on what he doesn’t like about the Lean Startup

Thiel believes there are merits to the Lean Startup, but he thinks founders today may have over-indexed on it:

“I do think we tend to be dominated by a somewhat nihilistic bias where we claim not to know anything. And when you don’t know anything, you end up defaulting too much to the experimental search, A/B testing approach of ‘Let’s ask the customers.’ And I would say the problem with that is that the search space is simply way too big.”

In practice, Thiel argues for a more definite view of the future: “This is an important problem that needs to be solved, and this is the set of things we have to combine in just this way to do it.”

To be fair, Steve Blank—who pioneered the Lean Startup methodology—isn’t necessarily against this approach. Blank just recommends treating your assumptions as “a series of untested hypotheses.”

But there’s clearly a balance between having a definite view of the future and rigorously trying to disprove your assumptions.

As Thiel explains, many of the PayPal founding team’s initial assumptions were wrong:

“At PayPal, our original business plan was to have payments on Palm Pilots, then it was wireless payments, then it was payments linked to email. So we had a few fairly big pivots in the first year. I’m not sure there’s anything especially virtuous about that — if you have a dumb idea, it’s important to change it — but it’s not virtuous to have a really bad idea in the first place.”

Video source: @OxfordSBS (2015) - Startup Archive
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @JacquesThibs: Agree with Thiel, we’ve over-indexed on the ‘lean startup’ and downplayed founder taste and vision too much.

Also related to the “Compound Startups” (aka companies with a multi-product portfolio rather than a point solution) coined by Rippling founder Parker Conrad.

Peter Thiel on what he doesn’t like about the Lean Startup

Thiel believes there are merits to the Lean Startup, but he thinks founders today may have over-indexed on it:

“I do think we tend to be dominated by a somewhat nihilistic bias where we claim not to know anything. And when you don’t know anything, you end up defaulting too much to the experimental search, A/B testing approach of ‘Let’s ask the customers.’ And I would say the problem with that is that the search space is simply way too big.”

In practice, Thiel argues for a more definite view of the future: “This is an important problem that needs to be solved, and this is the set of things we have to combine in just this way to do it.”

To be fair, Steve Blank—who pioneered the Lean Startup methodology—isn’t necessarily against this approach. Blank just recommends treating your assumptions as “a series of untested hypotheses.”

But there’s clearly a balance between having a definite view of the future and rigorously trying to disprove your assumptions.

As Thiel explains, many of the PayPal founding team’s initial assumptions were wrong:

“At PayPal, our original business plan was to have payments on Palm Pilots, then it was wireless payments, then it was payments linked to email. So we had a few fairly big pivots in the first year. I’m not sure there’s anything especially virtuous about that — if you have a dumb idea, it’s important to change it — but it’s not virtuous to have a really bad idea in the first place.”

Video source: @OxfordSBS (2015) - Startup Archive
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