ay’s price)

At that price, I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming 27x & ~10.2% CAGR while assuming 26x, a multiple I view as fair for $DHR

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: @investsavuri I prefer $DHR over $TMO (in general), yet given today’s valuations relative to growth I prefer $TMO
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
On 11/15/24 I stated that $TMO is more attractive than $DHR given their respective valuations at that time 💵

Since then?

$TMO +12.30% 📈
$DHR +0.26% 🟰 https://t.co/DfPKQQbuEQ

@investsavuri I prefer $DHR over $TMO (in general), yet given today’s valuations relative to growth I prefer $TMO - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
We've seen members of Congress buying an unusual amount of one specific stock.

Here's what we are seeing: https://t.co/2n4ucJF53C
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Laughing Water Capital on Lifecore Biomedical $LFCR US

Thesis: Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR) is experiencing a turnaround under new management, with plans for significant revenue growth and potential change of control by 2028, suggesting more than 100% upside in the future.

(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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⁠InsideArbitrage
Japan's NEC Weighs Offer for Software Provider CSG Systems $CSGS - Reuters

NEC has been working with investment bankers at Morgan Stanley on a potential offer for CSG, which has explored a sale over the past year.
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: BREAKING: Senator Brian Schatz has introduced bipartisan legislation to ban social media for people under the age of 13.

Do you support this?

Poll below. https://t.co/pinblOZT9I
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Wow.

The California Public Employees Retirement System sold $1.2B of Tesla stock last quarter.

This was their largest move by far.

$TSLA has now risen 48% since the report date. https://t.co/x3XUpqJnKt
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⁠Startup Archive
Marc Andreessen on the 5 personality traits of an innovator

“When you’re talking about real innovators—people who actually do really creative, breakthrough work—I think you’re talking about a couple things:”

1. Very high in trait openness. “Just flat-out open to new ideas… And the nature of trait openness means you’re not just open to new ideas in one category—you’re open to many different kinds of new ideas… But of course, just being open is not sufficient because if you’re just open, you could just be curious and explore and spend your entire life reading, talking to people, but never actually create something.”

2. High level of conscientiousness. “You need somebody who’s really willing to apply themselves—typically over a period of many years to accomplish something great… For most of these people, it’s years and years of applied effort. You need somebody with an extreme willingness to basically defer gratification… Of course, this is why there aren’t many of these people—there aren’t many people who are high in openness and high in conscientiousness because to a certain extent, they’re opposed traits.”

3. High in disagreeableness. “If they’re not ornery, they’ll be talked out of their ideas… Because the reaction most people have to new ideas is ‘Oh, that’s dumb.’ So, somebody who’s too agreeable will be easily dissuaded to not pull on the thread anymore.”

4. High IQ. “They just need to be really smart because it’s hard to innovate in any category if you can’t synthesize large amounts of information quickly.”

5. Relatively low neuroticism. “If they’re too neurotic, they probably can’t handle the stress.”

Video source: @hubermanlab (2023)
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @bwinterrose: it’s easy to look at a company like Airbnb and say “ofc they were successful”

but so few people are willing to do this work to make these things happen

watch and learn

Brian Chesky explains how Airbnb solved the chicken-and-egg problem

“Marketplaces are incredibly defensible at scale, and maybe it’s because they’re incredibly hard to start. And the problem is simple - they call it the chicken and egg problem.”

As Brian explains, it was tough to bootstrap Airbnb in the beginning because travelers couldn’t book homes if there was no inventory, and homeowners didn’t want to list their homes unless people were going to book them.

“We didn’t know what to do for a while .We tried a lot of different things. And I can tell you what worked. Summer of 2008, the press announces that Barack Obama is moving from a 20,000 seat basketball arena to an 80,000 seat football stadium. And we said, that’s our shot. You have 60,000 people that don’t have housing, surely at least a few of them are going to need a place to stay… And so we literally started with local people in Denver. Then we started emailing bloggers. We got the bloggers. Then the Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News covered us. Then the local ABC and NBC and CBS affiliates. And then the Wall Street Journal. Then the New York Times and CNN are in our living room… We did that in a matter of three weeks.”

Brian continues:

“We started these little infernos. You start getting a few users here, a hundred here, fifty there… And we did the same thing with the inauguration. And when you have a hundred people here and there, then you obsessively meet them… Paul Graham, our first investor, said it’s better to have a hundred people love you than a million people kind of like you. And the reason why is it’s really hard to build off of a really wide but shallow base. But with a hundred people, you can find out everything they want… You meet them, you spend a ton of time with them, and once they fall in love with your product, they’ll tell every one of their friends. That’s why [Airbnb] took a really long time to start, but it grew much faster later on.”

Video source: @cwclub (2011) - Startup Archive
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