Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Wynn Resorts $WYNN US
Thesis: Wynn Resorts is a compelling investment opportunity, benefiting from a rebounding gaming market and luxury travel trends, along with an undervalued portfolio and strong revenue growth.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/26MoLnMchO
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Nightview Capital on Wynn Resorts $WYNN US
Thesis: Wynn Resorts is a compelling investment opportunity, benefiting from a rebounding gaming market and luxury travel trends, along with an undervalued portfolio and strong revenue growth.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/26MoLnMchO
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @The_AI_Investor: Nvidia Quaterly Revenue from US - China - Singapore https://t.co/MGLwsF7aYe
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RT @The_AI_Investor: Nvidia Quaterly Revenue from US - China - Singapore https://t.co/MGLwsF7aYe
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Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Nancy Pelosi and Marjorie Taylor Greene have both been buying up Palo Alto Networks stock, $PANW.
Pelosi bought up to $1.2M of call options last year, and just exercised them, keeping the shares.
Greene has bought up to $75K of the stock.
Bipartisanship? https://t.co/QtxmW5wH3N
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JUST IN: Nancy Pelosi and Marjorie Taylor Greene have both been buying up Palo Alto Networks stock, $PANW.
Pelosi bought up to $1.2M of call options last year, and just exercised them, keeping the shares.
Greene has bought up to $75K of the stock.
Bipartisanship? https://t.co/QtxmW5wH3N
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Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
NEW: Just released improvements to the Quiver iOS app.
You can now get notifications on new:
- Congressional stock trades
- Government contracts
- Corporate lobbying
- Insider Trades
Should let you see the data even before we post about it.
Hopefully coming to Android soon. https://t.co/QTyi4UEQGE
tweet
NEW: Just released improvements to the Quiver iOS app.
You can now get notifications on new:
- Congressional stock trades
- Government contracts
- Corporate lobbying
- Insider Trades
Should let you see the data even before we post about it.
Hopefully coming to Android soon. https://t.co/QTyi4UEQGE
tweet
Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Merion Road Capital on United Bank of Alabama $UBAB US
Thesis: United Bank of Alabama is a strong investment due to its significant capital surplus, stock performance, and growth potential, projected to generate $7-$8 in normalized earnings.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/JCzvYFASWr
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Merion Road Capital on United Bank of Alabama $UBAB US
Thesis: United Bank of Alabama is a strong investment due to its significant capital surplus, stock performance, and growth potential, projected to generate $7-$8 in normalized earnings.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/JCzvYFASWr
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
2 weeks ago, I set a $120๐ต target stock price to accumulate $NVDA & shared my thoughts in one of my posts
Yesterday, it hit that mark ๐ฏ
This morning, I highlighted $NVDA as a good investment consideration at $118๐ต, & itโs already surged +7% since https://t.co/pOQJSO5ecX
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x
โข5-Year Mean: 42.92x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.01%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.32%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~42% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 19.1%
โข2021: 19.1%
โข2022: 26.0%
โข2023: 16.2%
โข2024: 60.5%
โขLTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 26.0%
โข2021: 29.8%
โข2022: 44.8%
โข2023: 17.9%
โข2024: 91.5%
โขLTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $10.92B
โข2025E: $129.23B
โขCAGR: 63.94%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $4.27B
โข2025E: $64.54B
โขCAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.14
โข2025E: $2.95
โขCAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ (nominal change)
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
โโ โ as $NVDA is investing in its own growth, driving innovation, and expanding its market leadership. This strategic use of capital is generating higher returns for investors
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~42% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 15.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.6% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.2% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $168.30๐ต โฆ ~19.1% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.69๐ต โฆ ~17.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $157.08๐ต โฆ ~15.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $151.47๐ต โฆ ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $145.86๐ต โฆ ~10.9% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN IF we assume >26x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple thatโs justified given the companyโs growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a good consideration today at $118.58๐ต
Given its volatility, Iโd likely strategically buy in tranches, enhancing margin of safety, while positioning myself to win-win regardless of short-term price action
E.g. purchase 1/3 at ~$118, 1/3 at ~$100, & 1/3 at ~$87
If the stock price goes ๐ I can accumulate more shares at an even more attractive valuation, if the stock price goes ๐ Iโm in the green
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐[...]
2 weeks ago, I set a $120๐ต target stock price to accumulate $NVDA & shared my thoughts in one of my posts
Yesterday, it hit that mark ๐ฏ
This morning, I highlighted $NVDA as a good investment consideration at $118๐ต, & itโs already surged +7% since https://t.co/pOQJSO5ecX
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x
โข5-Year Mean: 42.92x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.01%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.32%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~42% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 19.1%
โข2021: 19.1%
โข2022: 26.0%
โข2023: 16.2%
โข2024: 60.5%
โขLTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 26.0%
โข2021: 29.8%
โข2022: 44.8%
โข2023: 17.9%
โข2024: 91.5%
โขLTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $10.92B
โข2025E: $129.23B
โขCAGR: 63.94%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $4.27B
โข2025E: $64.54B
โขCAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.14
โข2025E: $2.95
โขCAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ (nominal change)
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
โโ โ as $NVDA is investing in its own growth, driving innovation, and expanding its market leadership. This strategic use of capital is generating higher returns for investors
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~42% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 15.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.6% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.2% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $168.30๐ต โฆ ~19.1% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.69๐ต โฆ ~17.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $157.08๐ต โฆ ~15.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $151.47๐ต โฆ ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $145.86๐ต โฆ ~10.9% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN IF we assume >26x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple thatโs justified given the companyโs growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a good consideration today at $118.58๐ต
Given its volatility, Iโd likely strategically buy in tranches, enhancing margin of safety, while positioning myself to win-win regardless of short-term price action
E.g. purchase 1/3 at ~$118, 1/3 at ~$100, & 1/3 at ~$87
If the stock price goes ๐ I can accumulate more shares at an even more attractive valuation, if the stock price goes ๐ Iโm in the green
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐[...]