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Stock Analysis Compilation
Platinium AM on Kuaishou $KUAISHOU HK
Thesis: Kuaishou is a highly engaged Chinese short-video platform with a significant user base and improving profitability, making it materially undervalued.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/EoYZwI1byv
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Platinium AM on Kuaishou $KUAISHOU HK
Thesis: Kuaishou is a highly engaged Chinese short-video platform with a significant user base and improving profitability, making it materially undervalued.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/EoYZwI1byv
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Alex Schultz explains how Facebook resurrects churned users
Alex is asked by a founder in the audience how Facebook resurrects churned users, to which he responds:
“I think there’s a big question about why people leave. Generally folks over-index on the idea that people don’t like the product and leave. Usually what happens though is they don’t actually get to the point where they see the value in the product.”
As Alex explains, most Facebook users churn because they didn’t find their friends. So their resurrection strategy is all about getting them to that magic moment of finding their friends.
“The best thing we can do is have their friends send friend requests so we can notify them, they come back, see more and more friends, and get a a fuller newsfeed and have a great experience…. That’s really the main reason people don’t ramp up on Facebook. And realistically, most of the leaving Facebook is not leaving, it’s not ramping up. And so what we do is optimize on getting them to the magic moment when they’re on the site. If they’re not on the site, get someone else to send them a friend request. Notify them of that. When they come back, get them more friends. It’s very focused and we’ve stayed that way for 8 years, and it’s really worked.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2015)
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Alex Schultz explains how Facebook resurrects churned users
Alex is asked by a founder in the audience how Facebook resurrects churned users, to which he responds:
“I think there’s a big question about why people leave. Generally folks over-index on the idea that people don’t like the product and leave. Usually what happens though is they don’t actually get to the point where they see the value in the product.”
As Alex explains, most Facebook users churn because they didn’t find their friends. So their resurrection strategy is all about getting them to that magic moment of finding their friends.
“The best thing we can do is have their friends send friend requests so we can notify them, they come back, see more and more friends, and get a a fuller newsfeed and have a great experience…. That’s really the main reason people don’t ramp up on Facebook. And realistically, most of the leaving Facebook is not leaving, it’s not ramping up. And so what we do is optimize on getting them to the magic moment when they’re on the site. If they’re not on the site, get someone else to send them a friend request. Notify them of that. When they come back, get them more friends. It’s very focused and we’ve stayed that way for 8 years, and it’s really worked.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2015)
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InsideArbitrage
Beacon’s $BECN Board has implemented a stockholder rights agreement in response to QXO’s $QXO buyout offer -
✴️On February 7, 2025, each shareholder will receive one preferred share purchase right per Beacon share they own.
✴️These rights are initially inactive but become active if someone acquires 15% or more of Beacon’s stock without approval.
✴️If triggered, shareholders can buy more Beacon shares at a 50% discount. If Beacon is later sold in a merger to an unapproved buyer, shareholders can purchase the acquiring company’s stock at a 50% discount.
✴️The plan expires on January 26, 2026, or earlier if redeemed, exchanged, or a Board-approved merger occurs.
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Beacon’s $BECN Board has implemented a stockholder rights agreement in response to QXO’s $QXO buyout offer -
✴️On February 7, 2025, each shareholder will receive one preferred share purchase right per Beacon share they own.
✴️These rights are initially inactive but become active if someone acquires 15% or more of Beacon’s stock without approval.
✴️If triggered, shareholders can buy more Beacon shares at a 50% discount. If Beacon is later sold in a merger to an unapproved buyer, shareholders can purchase the acquiring company’s stock at a 50% discount.
✴️The plan expires on January 26, 2026, or earlier if redeemed, exchanged, or a Board-approved merger occurs.
QXO $QXO Launches Hostile Tender Offer to Acquire Beacon Roofing $BECN for $11 Billion in Cash -
✴️QXO will commence a tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Beacon for $124.25 per share, representing a 4.92% premium from the stock’s last close.
✴️QXO plans to complete the acquisition promptly after the tender offer expires in 20 business days, on February 24, 2025.
https://t.co/HXmmy0WylJ tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x
•5-Year Mean: 42.92x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.01%
•5-Year Mean: 2.32%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~42% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 26.0%
•2023: 16.2%
•2024: 60.5%
•LTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 26.0%
•2021: 29.8%
•2022: 44.8%
•2023: 17.9%
•2024: 91.5%
•LTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2020: $10.92B
•2025E: $129.23B
•CAGR: 63.94%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $4.27B
•2025E: $64.54B
•CAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $0.14
•2025E: $2.95
•CAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅ (nominal change)
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
“✅” as $NVDA is investing in its own growth, driving innovation, and expanding its market leadership. This strategic use of capital is generating higher returns for investors
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~42% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 15.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.6% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.2% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $168.30💵 … ~19.1% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.69💵 … ~17.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $157.08💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $151.47💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $145.86💵 … ~10.9% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN IF we assume >26x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple that’s justified given the company’s growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a good consideration today at $118.58💵
Given its volatility, I’d likely strategically buy in tranches, enhancing margin of safety, while positioning myself to win-win regardless of short-term price action
E.g. purchase 1/3 at ~$118, 1/3 at ~$100, & 1/3 at ~$87
If the stock price goes 📉 I can accumulate more shares at an even more attractive valuation, if the stock price goes 📈 I’m in the green
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬�[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x
•5-Year Mean: 42.92x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.01%
•5-Year Mean: 2.32%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~42% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 26.0%
•2023: 16.2%
•2024: 60.5%
•LTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 26.0%
•2021: 29.8%
•2022: 44.8%
•2023: 17.9%
•2024: 91.5%
•LTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2020: $10.92B
•2025E: $129.23B
•CAGR: 63.94%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $4.27B
•2025E: $64.54B
•CAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $0.14
•2025E: $2.95
•CAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅ (nominal change)
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
“✅” as $NVDA is investing in its own growth, driving innovation, and expanding its market leadership. This strategic use of capital is generating higher returns for investors
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~42% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 15.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.6% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.2% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $168.30💵 … ~19.1% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.69💵 … ~17.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $157.08💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $151.47💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $145.86💵 … ~10.9% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN IF we assume >26x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple that’s justified given the company’s growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a good consideration today at $118.58💵
Given its volatility, I’d likely strategically buy in tranches, enhancing margin of safety, while positioning myself to win-win regardless of short-term price action
E.g. purchase 1/3 at ~$118, 1/3 at ~$100, & 1/3 at ~$87
If the stock price goes 📉 I can accumulate more shares at an even more attractive valuation, if the stock price goes 📈 I’m in the green
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬�[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x •5-Year Mean: 42.92x •NTM FCF Yield: 3.01% •5-Year Mean: 2.32% As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investors…
�𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Platinium AM on Rentokil $RTO LN
Thesis: Rentokil is a global leader in pest control with a stable business model and potential for growth through acquisitions, despite current market concerns.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/Pv7KlcU7mB
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Platinium AM on Rentokil $RTO LN
Thesis: Rentokil is a global leader in pest control with a stable business model and potential for growth through acquisitions, despite current market concerns.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/Pv7KlcU7mB
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi vs. The Market.
Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver. https://t.co/LQvRxax7GD
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Nancy Pelosi vs. The Market.
Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver. https://t.co/LQvRxax7GD
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InsideArbitrage
Bain Capital submitted a non-binding proposal to the Board of Surgery Partners $SGRY on January 27, to buy all outstanding shares for $25.75 per share in cash.
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Bain Capital submitted a non-binding proposal to the Board of Surgery Partners $SGRY on January 27, to buy all outstanding shares for $25.75 per share in cash.
Bain-Backed Surgery Partners $SGRY Is Exploring Potential Sale - Bloomberg
📢The Brentwood, Tennessee-based operator of surgical facilities is working with a financial adviser to gauge buyer interest.
📢Surgery Partners could appeal to strategic buyers or private equity firms. tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.
She bought up to:
- $15K of Bitcoin
- $60K of Tesla
- $15K of Facebook
- $60K of Amazon
- $45K of Johnson & Johnson
Full trades list up on Quiver, lots of other interesting moves. https://t.co/7cH618BX2p
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BREAKING: Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.
She bought up to:
- $15K of Bitcoin
- $60K of Tesla
- $15K of Facebook
- $60K of Amazon
- $45K of Johnson & Johnson
Full trades list up on Quiver, lots of other interesting moves. https://t.co/7cH618BX2p
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InsideArbitrage
🚢Shipping company $USEA United Maritime Corporation - Announces Sale of its Oldest Capesize and Extension of Share Repurchase Plan
⚓️ The company’s Board has authorised the extension of its existing $3 million share repurchase plan for a further 12-month period ending December 31, 2025. As of today, approximately $1.9 million remains available for repurchase
⚓️ CEO: “We are pleased to announce the well-timed sale of our oldest Capesize bulker, the 21-year-old Gloriuship, at a sizeable premium over her scrap value, taking advantage of the favourable valuation environment in this sector. The net sale proceeds after the repayment of the existing indebtedness will enhance the Company’s cash reserves by approximately $7 million, while the sale will have a positive impact on the average age of United’s fleet"
“Regarding our existing share repurchase plan, we have completed approximately $1.1 million of buybacks so far. Its extension amidst today’s volatile capital markets conditions is intended to permit opportunities to deliver accretion for our shareholders"
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🚢Shipping company $USEA United Maritime Corporation - Announces Sale of its Oldest Capesize and Extension of Share Repurchase Plan
⚓️ The company’s Board has authorised the extension of its existing $3 million share repurchase plan for a further 12-month period ending December 31, 2025. As of today, approximately $1.9 million remains available for repurchase
⚓️ CEO: “We are pleased to announce the well-timed sale of our oldest Capesize bulker, the 21-year-old Gloriuship, at a sizeable premium over her scrap value, taking advantage of the favourable valuation environment in this sector. The net sale proceeds after the repayment of the existing indebtedness will enhance the Company’s cash reserves by approximately $7 million, while the sale will have a positive impact on the average age of United’s fleet"
“Regarding our existing share repurchase plan, we have completed approximately $1.1 million of buybacks so far. Its extension amidst today’s volatile capital markets conditions is intended to permit opportunities to deliver accretion for our shareholders"
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