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โ Quiver Quantitative
Wow.
We caught these trades last week, and posted this report.
Ripple, $XRP, has now risen almost 30% since then. https://t.co/mY7lZfHPT6
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Wow.
We caught these trades last week, and posted this report.
Ripple, $XRP, has now risen almost 30% since then. https://t.co/mY7lZfHPT6
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Offshore
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Black Bear value partners on ARCH Resources, Inc. $ARCH US
Thesis: ARCH is well-positioned to benefit from a projected rise in met coal demand driven by economic growth in Asia, despite current valuation concerns, due to limited local supply and a looming shortage.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Black Bear value partners on ARCH Resources, Inc. $ARCH US
Thesis: ARCH is well-positioned to benefit from a projected rise in met coal demand driven by economic growth in Asia, despite current valuation concerns, due to limited local supply and a looming shortage.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Offshore
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โ Startup Archive
Netflix founder Reed Hastings on how to fire someone
Netflix is famous for its โkeeper testโ: If a team member was leaving for a similar role at another company, would the manager fight to keep them?
If the manager wouldnโt fight to keep them, the employee is given a generous severance package so the company can find someone even better for that position.
At a Stanford GSB talk, Reed is asked to demonstrate how to fire someone.
The whole video is worth watching, but the key takeaway is that Reed tries to treat the company like a professional sports team: โit really sucks to get cut from the team, but itโs not an ethical judgment or a moral judgment or a judgment of you as a person.โ
He continues:
โWhat weโre trying to do is get away from โyou suck.โ.. and Iโm being honest as opposed to being hurtfulโฆ The more it is socialized with all of you as if it was in sportsโwhere itโs not as much a life kind of thing, itโs a performance kind of thingโthe better.โ
Video source: @StanfordGSB (2024)
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Netflix founder Reed Hastings on how to fire someone
Netflix is famous for its โkeeper testโ: If a team member was leaving for a similar role at another company, would the manager fight to keep them?
If the manager wouldnโt fight to keep them, the employee is given a generous severance package so the company can find someone even better for that position.
At a Stanford GSB talk, Reed is asked to demonstrate how to fire someone.
The whole video is worth watching, but the key takeaway is that Reed tries to treat the company like a professional sports team: โit really sucks to get cut from the team, but itโs not an ethical judgment or a moral judgment or a judgment of you as a person.โ
He continues:
โWhat weโre trying to do is get away from โyou suck.โ.. and Iโm being honest as opposed to being hurtfulโฆ The more it is socialized with all of you as if it was in sportsโwhere itโs not as much a life kind of thing, itโs a performance kind of thingโthe better.โ
Video source: @StanfordGSB (2024)
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Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Senator Rick Scott has proposed a bill that would repeal pay raises for members of Congress.
Scott is the richest member of Congress, per our estimates.
We estimate that he is currently worth $547M. https://t.co/gwctsKCYJj
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RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Senator Rick Scott has proposed a bill that would repeal pay raises for members of Congress.
Scott is the richest member of Congress, per our estimates.
We estimate that he is currently worth $547M. https://t.co/gwctsKCYJj
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Offshore
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Royce Invest on ESAB Corporation $ESAB US
Thesis: ESAB Corporation is a global leader in welding technology experiencing strong growth and transformation in a favorable market.
(Extract from their article) https://t.co/VayU3NgauF
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Royce Invest on ESAB Corporation $ESAB US
Thesis: ESAB Corporation is a global leader in welding technology experiencing strong growth and transformation in a favorable market.
(Extract from their article) https://t.co/VayU3NgauF
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 33.80x
โข1-Year Mean: 37.21x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.67%
โข1-Year Mean: 2.39%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 19.1%
โข2021: 19.1%
โข2022: 26.0%
โข2023: 16.2%
โข2024: 60.5%
โขLTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 26.0%
โข2021: 29.8%
โข2022: 44.8%
โข2023: 17.9%
โข2024: 91.5%
โขLTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $16.68B
โข2025E: $129.14B
โขCAGR: 63.89%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $4.27B
โข2025E: $64.54B
โขCAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.14
โข2025E: $2.95
โขCAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐ (nominal change)
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 16.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (16.90%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.5% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.1% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $178.88๐ต โฆ ~15.5% CAGR
31x P/E: $173.29๐ต โฆ ~13.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $167.70๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.11๐ต โฆ ~10.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $156.52๐ต โฆ ~8.2% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >30x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple thatโs justified given the companyโs growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a fair consideration today at $133๐ต
I am more inclined to buy $NVDA closer to $120๐ต where I could reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a 27x end multiple, ensuring a decent margin of safety
What stands out to me is $NVDA consistent ability to exceed ambitious expectations, not just meeting but significantly beating estimates. This impressive performance has justified its previously demanding valuation, with the company effectively growing into its premium valuation ๐๐ฝ
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 33.80x
โข1-Year Mean: 37.21x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.67%
โข1-Year Mean: 2.39%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 19.1%
โข2021: 19.1%
โข2022: 26.0%
โข2023: 16.2%
โข2024: 60.5%
โขLTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 26.0%
โข2021: 29.8%
โข2022: 44.8%
โข2023: 17.9%
โข2024: 91.5%
โขLTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $16.68B
โข2025E: $129.14B
โขCAGR: 63.89%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $4.27B
โข2025E: $64.54B
โขCAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.14
โข2025E: $2.95
โขCAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐ (nominal change)
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 16.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (16.90%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.5% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.1% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $178.88๐ต โฆ ~15.5% CAGR
31x P/E: $173.29๐ต โฆ ~13.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $167.70๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.11๐ต โฆ ~10.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $156.52๐ต โฆ ~8.2% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >30x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple thatโs justified given the companyโs growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a fair consideration today at $133๐ต
I am more inclined to buy $NVDA closer to $120๐ต where I could reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a 27x end multiple, ensuring a decent margin of safety
What stands out to me is $NVDA consistent ability to exceed ambitious expectations, not just meeting but significantly beating estimates. This impressive performance has justified its previously demanding valuation, with the company effectively growing into its premium valuation ๐๐ฝ
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐[...]