⁠Ahmad Jivraj
RT @ConnorJBates_: Names on my WL holding up the best ~ $MRVL $TSLA $GEV $VST $PTON $NBIS $HOOD $MSTR $IBIT $GOOGL $RBRK $META $CLS $SNOW $VRT $RDDT $ALAB $CRDO $EQT $LULU https://t.co/HedniFJ1SX
tweet

⁠InsideArbitrage
$GSHD Goosehead Insurance Secures $300 Million Term Loan and Declares $5.91 Special Dividend

💰Pay Date: Jan 31, 2025; Ex-div: Jan 20, 2025

▪️ Proceeds from the new term loan agreement will be used to retire the company’s existing $93 million term loan, pay the special dividend, and other general corporate purposes. The maturation date of the new term loan facility is January 8, 2032
tweet

⁠InsideArbitrage
🏥Provider of home and alternate site infusion services - $OPCH Option Care Health Board approved a new $500 million stock repurchase program (~12% of its market cap at announcement)

💉 Completed the prior share repurchase program by deploying $90 million under share repurchases in Q4 2024
💉 The graph below shows that the company has prioritized share repurchases in recent years and intends to maintain this focus moving forward
tweet

⁠Hidden Value Gems
Best-ever first half-year results by $GAW.L

➡️Revenue (constant currency) +23%
➡️Core profit (CC) +23%
➡️Total operating profit +33%

No update on the Amazon IP deal at this point. https://t.co/tVeZuL7lhq
tweet

⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron International Growth Fund on Lynas Rare Earths Limited $LYC AU

Thesis: Lynas is a leading Australian rare earths mining company positioned to benefit from rising demand for Neodymium ore in high-performance applications, while contributing to reducing global reliance on Chinese supply chains.

(Extract from their Q3 letter)
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 33.80x
•1-Year Mean: 37.21x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.67%
•1-Year Mean: 2.39%

As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading somewhere near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.46B

$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 26.0%
•2023: 16.2%
•2024: 60.5%
•LTM: 92.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 26.0%
•2021: 29.8%
•2022: 44.8%
•2023: 17.9%
•2024: 91.5%
•LTM: 127.2%

$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2020: $16.68B
•2025E: $129.14B
•CAGR: 63.89%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $4.27B
•2025E: $64.54B
•CAGR: 72.13%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $0.14
•2025E: $2.95
•CAGR: 83.96%

SHARE BUYBACKS🆗 (nominal change)
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 16.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (16.90%) required growth rate:

2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan

2026E: $4.45 (50.5% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.1% YoY)

$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $178.88💵 … ~15.5% CAGR

31x P/E: $173.29💵 … ~13.7% CAGR

30x P/E: $167.70💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

29x P/E: $162.11💵 … ~10.1% CAGR

28x P/E: $156.52💵 … ~8.2% CAGR

As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >30x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple that’s justified given the company’s growth rate & moat

$NVDA is a fair consideration today at $133💵

I am more inclined to buy $NVDA closer to $120💵 where I could reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a 27x end multiple, ensuring a decent margin of safety

What stands out to me is $NVDA consistent ability to exceed ambitious expectations, not just meeting but significantly beating estimates. This impressive performance has justified its previously demanding valuation, with the company effectively growing into its premium valuation 👌🏽

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬[...]

𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

⁠InsideArbitrage
$PINC Premier Inc.👇👇

Significant progress in share repurchase since the $1 billion share buyback announced in Feb 2024...

▪️ November 6, 2024: The company completed its $400 million accelerated share repurchase transaction in July.
▪️ In August and September, it repurchased an additional $58 million of shares in the open market
▪️ In January 2025, the company completed execution of the additional $200 million of repurchases of its Class A Common Stock that it announced in August 2024

The company has repurchased a total of $600 million of its common stock under the share repurchase authorization
tweet