𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Riverwater Partners on Mama's Creations $MAMA US

Thesis: Mama's Creations capitalizes on fresh food growth and Costco partnerships, showcasing robust margins and scalable market opportunities

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/UTyR7ao4uT
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⁠Startup Archive
Cruise founder Kyle Vogt’s framework for choosing a startup idea

After cofounding Twitch and selling the company to Amazon for $1 billion in 2014, Kyle was trying to figure out what to do next:

“Twitch was and is today pretty successful but the result was entertainment mostly… That was a good thing. It felt good to entertain people, but… I realized I wanted something that scratched more of an existential itch.”

Twitch took eight years to become successful, so one of Kyle’s core requirements for his next idea was that he had to be willing to commit at least 10 years to it. As he explains, “When you think about things from that perspective, you certainly raise the bar for what you choose to work on.”

Ultimately Kyle came up with three requirements for his next company:

1. Interesting technology. “It had to be something where the technology itself determines the success of the product. Like hard, really juicy technology problems, because that’s what motivates me.”

2. Impactful. “It had to have a direct and positive impact on society in some way. So an example would be healthcare or self-driving cars because they save lives… There’s a clear connection to somehow improving other people’s lives.”

3. Large scale. “It had to be a big business because for the positive impact to matter, it’s got to be a large scale.”

After thinking on it more and experimenting with various side projects, he ultimately decided self driving cars was what he wanted to work on:

“I just took the plunge right then and there and said, this is something I know I can commit 10 years to. It’s probably the greatest applied AI problem of our generation. And if it works, it’s going to be both a huge business and probably the most positive impact I can possibly have on the world.”

General Motors acquired Cruise for more than $1 billion two years later, but Kyle continued to work on self-driving as CEO of Cruise through November 2023. So his 10-year forecast actually proved quite accurate.

Sam Altman gives similar advice in his blog post “Startup Advice”: “In general, don’t start a startup you’re not willing to work on for ten years.”

Video source: @lexfridman (2019)
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⁠Investing visuals
December portfolio update 💸👇

Quite some action last month:
• Added to 2 position
• Opened a new position (2nd in 2024)
• Trimmed 5 positions
• Entirely closed 1 position

If you'd like to get full insight into my portfolio, reasoning and more, follow along as a sub!
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⁠InsideArbitrage
$IMCR Immunocore appoints Travis Coy as CFO, and Head of Corporate Development, effective Jan 1, 2025.

👨‍🔬 Coy brings over 20 years of finance, business development, and chemistry experience, including senior roles at Eli Lilly.

💼Compensation Package: Coy's package includes a $500K base salary, 40% target bonus, $200K sign-on bonus, and 274,033 equity options.

🔄 Outgoing CFO: Brian Di Donato resigns as CFO, effective Dec 31, 2024, to pursue another opportunity.

📉 Immunocore stock is down 59% over the past year.
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⁠App Economy Insights
$TSLA Tesla Q4 key metrics:

🚘 Deliveries:
• Q4: +2% Y/Y to 496K (11K miss).
• FY24: -1% Y/Y to 1,789K.

⚡️ Energy storage deployments:
• Q4: +244% Y/Y to 11.0 GWh.
• FY24: +114% Y/Y to 31.4 GWh.

🗓️ Q4 earnings will be on January 29. https://t.co/LaSgxR4hjE
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Hotchkis & Wiley on Kosmos $KOS US

Thesis: Kosmos Energy's offshore expertise and undervaluation offer compelling upside amid evolving energy dynamics

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VyMl0hdAPY
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⁠Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
10-K Footnotes Deep Dive (Part 3 of 3)

Is Ford more liquid than it appears? It there a ceiling to the stock? $F

3 metrics to watch + Net Debt to EBITDA tutorial https://t.co/62KInQC0Yr
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AkhenOsiris
Sports Betting:

Brazil's 215M person market finally entered the betting space. igamingbusiness.com/legal-co…
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
NEW: We just released a new dashboard that tracks government payments to publicly traded companies.

CC: @elonmusk, @DOGE https://t.co/az2PZYRuVk
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