Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Viasat stock has now risen 41% since we posted this report.
It's been just over a month.
Up another 6% so far today: https://t.co/nYhpBOBcHn
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Viasat stock has now risen 41% since we posted this report.
It's been just over a month.
Up another 6% so far today: https://t.co/nYhpBOBcHn
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Offshore
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InsideArbitrage
🚨 $NNDM Nano Dimension terminates CEO Yoav Stern effective immediately.
Yoav Stern, CEO since Jan 2020, was not re-elected as a director at the Dec 6, 2024 AGM.
- Appoints Julien Lederman as Interim CEO. Julien Lederman currently serves as the company's VP of Corporate Development since 2021.
- The Board is conducting a comprehensive search for a permanent CEO.
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🚨 $NNDM Nano Dimension terminates CEO Yoav Stern effective immediately.
Yoav Stern, CEO since Jan 2020, was not re-elected as a director at the Dec 6, 2024 AGM.
- Appoints Julien Lederman as Interim CEO. Julien Lederman currently serves as the company's VP of Corporate Development since 2021.
- The Board is conducting a comprehensive search for a permanent CEO.
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Silver Beech on WillScot $WSC US
Thesis: WillScot’s industry leadership, margin expansion, and cash generation create a strong foundation for continued growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/R82TvAPKcx
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Silver Beech on WillScot $WSC US
Thesis: WillScot’s industry leadership, margin expansion, and cash generation create a strong foundation for continued growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/R82TvAPKcx
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Vinod Khosla: “70% of investors add negative value to a company”
When junior team members at Khosla Ventures ask Vinod if they can serve on portfolio company boards, Vinod responds:
“You haven’t earned the right to advise an entrepreneur. Just because you got an MBA and joined a venture firm doesn’t mean you’re qualified to advise an entrepreneur.”
Vinod believes one of the best ways to earn that right (but not the only way) is to build a large company yourself:
“Have you gone through how hard it is, how uncertain it is, how traumatic it is to go through?… If somebody has never dealt with this decision-making under ambiguity, they’re not qualified to help you… Whose advice to trust on what topic is the single hardest decision an entrepreneur makes. It’s also where the right investors can really help you.”
He gives the example of asking a marketing executive at IBM for marketing advice:
“They’ve never dealt with things where the market isn’t established… They’re not qualified to invent whole new markets.”
He also recalls a recent argument with a co-investor who wanted their healthcare portfolio company to hire a healthcare executive from an established company:
“They wanted this healthcare person who had never dealt with change beyond 2% a year, and I’m like, experience doesn’t matter. The rate of learning matters [for a role like this].”
Video source: @ycombinator (2019)
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Vinod Khosla: “70% of investors add negative value to a company”
When junior team members at Khosla Ventures ask Vinod if they can serve on portfolio company boards, Vinod responds:
“You haven’t earned the right to advise an entrepreneur. Just because you got an MBA and joined a venture firm doesn’t mean you’re qualified to advise an entrepreneur.”
Vinod believes one of the best ways to earn that right (but not the only way) is to build a large company yourself:
“Have you gone through how hard it is, how uncertain it is, how traumatic it is to go through?… If somebody has never dealt with this decision-making under ambiguity, they’re not qualified to help you… Whose advice to trust on what topic is the single hardest decision an entrepreneur makes. It’s also where the right investors can really help you.”
He gives the example of asking a marketing executive at IBM for marketing advice:
“They’ve never dealt with things where the market isn’t established… They’re not qualified to invent whole new markets.”
He also recalls a recent argument with a co-investor who wanted their healthcare portfolio company to hire a healthcare executive from an established company:
“They wanted this healthcare person who had never dealt with change beyond 2% a year, and I’m like, experience doesn’t matter. The rate of learning matters [for a role like this].”
Video source: @ycombinator (2019)
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Diamond Hill on Huntington Ingalls Industries $HII US
Thesis: Huntington Ingalls’ unique position as a key U.S. Navy supplier ensures long-term demand visibility and growth opportunities
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Nvq45BnUXQ
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Diamond Hill on Huntington Ingalls Industries $HII US
Thesis: Huntington Ingalls’ unique position as a key U.S. Navy supplier ensures long-term demand visibility and growth opportunities
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Nvq45BnUXQ
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Offshore
Video
Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
10-K Footnotes Deep Dive (Part 2 of 3)
How a company's ROIC can be inflated, because its Invested Capital is under-reported (Tutorial) $F
Found this Nugget from the Company Model tab on the @NewConstructs platform, which outlines the exact line-items you need for NOPAT, ROIC. https://t.co/EZRvuzSUOr
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10-K Footnotes Deep Dive (Part 2 of 3)
How a company's ROIC can be inflated, because its Invested Capital is under-reported (Tutorial) $F
Found this Nugget from the Company Model tab on the @NewConstructs platform, which outlines the exact line-items you need for NOPAT, ROIC. https://t.co/EZRvuzSUOr
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Coherent $COHR US
Thesis: Coherent is capitalizing on AI-driven demand and operational improvements to unlock margin expansion and revenue growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/l8FrzJ9iyj
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Artisan Partners on Coherent $COHR US
Thesis: Coherent is capitalizing on AI-driven demand and operational improvements to unlock margin expansion and revenue growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/l8FrzJ9iyj
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
5 months ago I stated:
“Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $MA shares rallied +25% ✅
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)”
A sober valuation analysis on $MA 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.16x
•10-Year Mean: 31.32x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.48%
•10-Year Mean: 3.41%
As you can see, $MA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MA is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $7.66B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.54B
$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 19.79x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 62.9%
•2020: 40.6%
•2021: 45.7%
•2022: 58.5%
•2023: 61.1%
•LTM: 64.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 141.4%
•2020: 102.5%
•2021: 124.7%
•2022: 144.0%
•2023: 167.4%
•LTM: 186.3%
$MA has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $8.31B
•2023: $25.10B
•CAGR: 11.68%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $3.98B
•2023: $11.61B
•CAGR: 11.30%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.61
•2023: $12.26
•CAGR: 16.73%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.29
•2023: $2.37
•CAGR: 23.37%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.21B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 939M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.4%, $MA increased its EPS by ~28.8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 46.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 14.58% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (14.58%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.27 (16.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $16.57 (16.1% YoY)
2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)
$MA has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
31x P/E: $599.23💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $579.90💵 … ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $560.57💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $541.24💵 … ~10.6% CAGR
As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)
Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment
Given that $MA has historically bottomed near 26x earnings, I'd also leave some room to purchase additional shares if the stock were to trade at that multiple, which would be about 10% lower, or around $386💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 [...]
5 months ago I stated:
“Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $MA shares rallied +25% ✅
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)”
A sober valuation analysis on $MA 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.16x
•10-Year Mean: 31.32x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.48%
•10-Year Mean: 3.41%
As you can see, $MA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MA is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $7.66B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.54B
$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 19.79x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 62.9%
•2020: 40.6%
•2021: 45.7%
•2022: 58.5%
•2023: 61.1%
•LTM: 64.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 141.4%
•2020: 102.5%
•2021: 124.7%
•2022: 144.0%
•2023: 167.4%
•LTM: 186.3%
$MA has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $8.31B
•2023: $25.10B
•CAGR: 11.68%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $3.98B
•2023: $11.61B
•CAGR: 11.30%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.61
•2023: $12.26
•CAGR: 16.73%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.29
•2023: $2.37
•CAGR: 23.37%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.21B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 939M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.4%, $MA increased its EPS by ~28.8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 46.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 14.58% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (14.58%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.27 (16.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $16.57 (16.1% YoY)
2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)
$MA has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
31x P/E: $599.23💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $579.90💵 … ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $560.57💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $541.24💵 … ~10.6% CAGR
As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)
Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment
Given that $MA has historically bottomed near 26x earnings, I'd also leave some room to purchase additional shares if the stock were to trade at that multiple, which would be about 10% lower, or around $386💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 [...]