Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
RT @genomicsdoc: Weird how many people deny this.
Certainly not everyone should feel like they need to do this to lead a decent life. However if you want to make more money than average, and make more impact than average, working much harder than average greatly increases that probability.
tweet
RT @genomicsdoc: Weird how many people deny this.
Certainly not everyone should feel like they need to do this to lead a decent life. However if you want to make more money than average, and make more impact than average, working much harder than average greatly increases that probability.
LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman: Founders have no work-life balance
“I actually think founders have no balance… If I ever hear a founder talking about how ‘this is how I have a balanced life’ and so forth, they’re not committed to winning… The really great founders are like: ‘I am going to literally pour everything into doing this. Now it only may be for a couple of years… But while I’m doing this, I am unbalanced at this thing.’ It’s not to say that you don’t take breaks or you don’t go on dates or whatever else. But you’re super focused on this because it’s really hard and there’s lots of ways to die.”
Elon Musk emphasizes this as well:
“If other people are putting in 40-hour work weeks, and you’re putting in 80 hour work weeks, you will achieve in 6 months what takes them a year to achieve, which will greatly improve your odds of success”
Why make such extreme sacrifices?
Well, as Paul Graham puts it in his essay How To Make Wealth:
“Economically, you can think of a startup as a way to compress your whole working life into a few years. Instead of working at a low intensity for forty years, you work as hard as you possibly can for four.”
In the early years, you will have to make lots of sacrifices and shouldn’t really expect much work-life balance if you want your startup to be successful.
But you can view it as an opportunity to compress your whole working life into a few years.
And hopefully excitement about what you’re building and the extremely-talented team you’re building it with make those long hours way more fun and rewarding than a normal 9-to-5 job.
Video source: @ycombinator (2014) tweet
Startup Archive
RT @mpawlo: @StartupArchive_ Four years will rarely be enough, but other than that @paulg is, as per usual, on the money. The challenging part here is to accept the price of what @reidhoffman is correctly stating: a very limited life outside of building to win. Most accept it in theory, but few in practice.
tweet
RT @mpawlo: @StartupArchive_ Four years will rarely be enough, but other than that @paulg is, as per usual, on the money. The challenging part here is to accept the price of what @reidhoffman is correctly stating: a very limited life outside of building to win. Most accept it in theory, but few in practice.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Orbis on Genmab $GMAB US
Thesis: Genmab’s innovative DuoBody platform and robust R&D pipeline are undervalued, offering significant upside with minimal downside risk.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/la9pglRJkE
tweet
Orbis on Genmab $GMAB US
Thesis: Genmab’s innovative DuoBody platform and robust R&D pipeline are undervalued, offering significant upside with minimal downside risk.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/la9pglRJkE
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
Check out the latest earnings! 👇
https://t.co/ithnz8XVcD
🌐 Accenture $ACN
👟 Nike $NKE
⚙️ Micron $MU
🚚 FedEx $FDX
🍪 General Mills $GIS
🛳️ Carnival $CCL
🧑🍳 Darden $DRI
👡 Birkenstock $BIRK https://t.co/5nK5CdBxaS
tweet
📊 This Week in Visuals:
Check out the latest earnings! 👇
https://t.co/ithnz8XVcD
🌐 Accenture $ACN
👟 Nike $NKE
⚙️ Micron $MU
🚚 FedEx $FDX
🍪 General Mills $GIS
🛳️ Carnival $CCL
🧑🍳 Darden $DRI
👡 Birkenstock $BIRK https://t.co/5nK5CdBxaS
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Naval Ravikant’s advice for getting a meeting with an investor
“You have to understand that their time is being assaulted in all directions…. you have to respect their time as much as you respect your own.”
This means:
1. Don’t insist on in-person meetings
2. Qualify the leads first
3. Send them something in writing
4. Get a very good introduction from someone who’s trusted
5. Don’t be secretive
6. Don’t browbeat them into an in-person meeting or a phone call
“Let them screen it first via text or a summary or a business plan. And then if they request it, you can follow up with an in-person meeting.”
Video source: @gigaom (2010)
tweet
Naval Ravikant’s advice for getting a meeting with an investor
“You have to understand that their time is being assaulted in all directions…. you have to respect their time as much as you respect your own.”
This means:
1. Don’t insist on in-person meetings
2. Qualify the leads first
3. Send them something in writing
4. Get a very good introduction from someone who’s trusted
5. Don’t be secretive
6. Don’t browbeat them into an in-person meeting or a phone call
“Let them screen it first via text or a summary or a business plan. And then if they request it, you can follow up with an in-person meeting.”
Video source: @gigaom (2010)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Diamond Hill on Insperity $NSP US
Thesis: Insperity’s scale, cash generation, and exposure to secular HR trends position it for sustained growth and margin expansion
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/63AWFarvWo
tweet
Diamond Hill on Insperity $NSP US
Thesis: Insperity’s scale, cash generation, and exposure to secular HR trends position it for sustained growth and margin expansion
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/63AWFarvWo
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
$UBER has really turned on their cash printer lately🤑 https://t.co/LZHhHfnOKD
tweet
$UBER has really turned on their cash printer lately🤑 https://t.co/LZHhHfnOKD
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Colliers International $CIGI US
Thesis: Colliers leverages its global reach and expertise to capitalize on profit cycle drivers as interest rate pressures ease.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/2saXI3mmrz
tweet
Artisan Partners on Colliers International $CIGI US
Thesis: Colliers leverages its global reach and expertise to capitalize on profit cycle drivers as interest rate pressures ease.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/2saXI3mmrz
tweet
Offshore
Photo
<a href="https://t.me/iv?url=https%3A%2F%2Fr.tfrbot.com%2Fapi%2Freadability%3Furl%3Dhttps%253a%252f%252ftwitter.com%252fDimitryNakhla%252fstatus%252f1870574345174790287&rhash=cc31aa64cf012a"></a><b>Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®</b>
Now that $AMD reached my $120💵 target, here are the updated CAGR Estimates:
23x P/E: $162.15💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $155.10💵 … ~13.8% CAGR
21x P/E: $148.05💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
20x P/E: $141.00💵 … ~8.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $133.95💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
*Assuming 2026 EPS of $7.05
_______
Check out the photo below, you'll notice that $AMD tends to bottom near 25x - 26x earnings. Interestingly, it’s trading at that level today
Of course in rare circumstances, such as the prolonged bear market in 2022, $AMD can trade at much lower multiples
However, it’s encouraging to see $AMD trade near what I call a “Fundamental Bottom” and it’s certainly peaking my interest today at $120💵 (along with $ASML $LRCX & $AMAT)<code>
A quality valuation analysis on $AMD 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.59x
•3-Year Mean: 32.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.97%
•3-Year Mean: 3.10%
As you can see, $AMD appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMD is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $4.54B
•Long-Term Debt: $1.72B
$AMD has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 21x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️❌
•2019: 17.9%
•2020: 21.5%
•2021: 44.7%
•2022: 2.1%
•2023: 0.7%
•LTM: 2.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️❌*
•2019: 16.7%
•2020: 57.5%
•2021: 47.4%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 1.5%
•LTM: 3.3%
$AMD has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
*the notable drop in ROIC can be attributed to Xilinx acquisition in 2022, increased expenses and investments, among other things
REVENUES✅
•2018: $6.48B
•2023: $22.68B
•CAGR: 28.47%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2018: ($0.13B)
•2023: $1.12B
*2024E FCF is $3.68B 📈
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $0.46
•2023: $2.65
•CAGR: 41.93%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.06B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.64B
By increasing its shares outstanding by 54%, $AMD decreased its EPS by 35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 5.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMD has to grow earnings at a 15.30% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.30%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.32 (25.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.11 (53.8% YoY)
2026E: $7.10 (38.9% YoY)
2027E*: $9.11 (28.2% YoY)
$AMD has a mediocre track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMD ends 2027 with $8.20* in EPS (10% below estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $213.20💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $196.80💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $180.40💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
20x P/E: $164.00💵 … ~5.7% CAGR
As you can see, $AMD appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >24x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >26x earnings
Assuming 24x is very reasonable given $AMD growth rate — however this is a high degree of uncertainty when it comes to $AMD multi-year projections (for better or for worse)
Today at $138💵 $AMD still appears to be a decent consideration for investment
To account for the high uncertainty and aggressive growth projections, I would require a more substantial margin of safety
I’d consider $AMD a strong consideration closer to $120💵 (~13.5% below today’s price) or at ~26.50x NTM estimates, where I can expect ~14% CAGR assuming 22x
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈�[...]
Now that $AMD reached my $120💵 target, here are the updated CAGR Estimates:
23x P/E: $162.15💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $155.10💵 … ~13.8% CAGR
21x P/E: $148.05💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
20x P/E: $141.00💵 … ~8.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $133.95💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
*Assuming 2026 EPS of $7.05
_______
Check out the photo below, you'll notice that $AMD tends to bottom near 25x - 26x earnings. Interestingly, it’s trading at that level today
Of course in rare circumstances, such as the prolonged bear market in 2022, $AMD can trade at much lower multiples
However, it’s encouraging to see $AMD trade near what I call a “Fundamental Bottom” and it’s certainly peaking my interest today at $120💵 (along with $ASML $LRCX & $AMAT)<code>
A quality valuation analysis on $AMD 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.59x
•3-Year Mean: 32.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.97%
•3-Year Mean: 3.10%
As you can see, $AMD appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMD is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $4.54B
•Long-Term Debt: $1.72B
$AMD has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 21x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️❌
•2019: 17.9%
•2020: 21.5%
•2021: 44.7%
•2022: 2.1%
•2023: 0.7%
•LTM: 2.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️❌*
•2019: 16.7%
•2020: 57.5%
•2021: 47.4%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 1.5%
•LTM: 3.3%
$AMD has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
*the notable drop in ROIC can be attributed to Xilinx acquisition in 2022, increased expenses and investments, among other things
REVENUES✅
•2018: $6.48B
•2023: $22.68B
•CAGR: 28.47%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2018: ($0.13B)
•2023: $1.12B
*2024E FCF is $3.68B 📈
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $0.46
•2023: $2.65
•CAGR: 41.93%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.06B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.64B
By increasing its shares outstanding by 54%, $AMD decreased its EPS by 35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 5.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMD has to grow earnings at a 15.30% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.30%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.32 (25.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.11 (53.8% YoY)
2026E: $7.10 (38.9% YoY)
2027E*: $9.11 (28.2% YoY)
$AMD has a mediocre track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMD ends 2027 with $8.20* in EPS (10% below estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $213.20💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $196.80💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $180.40💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
20x P/E: $164.00💵 … ~5.7% CAGR
As you can see, $AMD appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >24x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >26x earnings
Assuming 24x is very reasonable given $AMD growth rate — however this is a high degree of uncertainty when it comes to $AMD multi-year projections (for better or for worse)
Today at $138💵 $AMD still appears to be a decent consideration for investment
To account for the high uncertainty and aggressive growth projections, I would require a more substantial margin of safety
I’d consider $AMD a strong consideration closer to $120💵 (~13.5% below today’s price) or at ~26.50x NTM estimates, where I can expect ~14% CAGR assuming 22x
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈�[...]