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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Stock Analysis Compilation #67 is in your inbox ๐Ÿ”ฅ
(link below)

50 stock pitches from the best hedge funds & newsletters :
$ADBE $ALCO $AMAT $ASPI $BOC $CHGG $CPNG $FAST $GOOGL $HIMS $INTU $JBI $K $KSS $TREE $LULU $MBUU $META $PLTR $QSR $REVG $CRM $IOT $SRPT $NOW $TBLA $ZTS and many more
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โ Quiver Quantitative
We've been writing code to track government spending.

Here's an update on how much money publicly traded companies have received from public awards in 2024.

Per our estimates:

1. UnitedHealth Group: $18.5B
2. Lockheed Martin: $16.1B
3. Boeing: $13.7B
4. Leidos Holdings: $8.81B
5. General Dynamics: $7.75B
6. McKesson: $7.35B
7. Booz Allen Hamilton: $7B
8. Northrop Grumman: $6.89B
9. L3Harris Technologies: $5.62B
10. Fluor Corp: $5.35B
11. Huntington Ingalls: $4.49B
12. Science Applications International: $3.98B
13. Raytheon: $3.49B
14. Resideo Technologies: $3.2B
15. Accenture: $2.98B
16. CACI International: $2.92B
17. Merck: $2.87B
18. Parsons: $2.43B
19. General Electric: $1.62B
20. Sanofi: $1.56B
21. Textron: $1.3B
22. Pfizer: $1.28B
23. AT&T: $1.21B
24. Cencora: $1.16B
25. International Business Machines: $1.13B
26. CGI Inc: $1.1B
27. Maximus: $1.08B
28. Fedex: $954M
29. GEO Group: $954M
30. Charter Communications: $913M
31. Oracle: $888M
32. Tetra Tech: $845M
33. KBR: $841M
34. Valero Energy: $799M
35. Oshkosh: $773M
36. BP: $622M
37. Aecom: $576M
38. ICF International: $561M
39. Olin Corp: $546M
40. Cardinal Health: $491M
41. Brown & Brown: $489M
42. Palantir: $441M
43. CoreCivic: $416M
44. US Foods Holding: $385M
45. A-Mark Precious Metals: $375M
46. Verizon Communications: $368M
47. Microsoft: $365M
48. ASGN: $362M
49. Nelnet: $321M
50. Caterpillar Inc: $299M
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Offshore
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โ App Economy Insights
Oracle and Adobe just reported.

From surging Capex to AI monetization challenges, how are they riding the big AI wave?

Letโ€™s break it down with visuals ๐Ÿ‘‡
$ORCL $ADBE
https://t.co/hhtgzGWh2t
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โ Quiver Quantitative
Broadcom stock, $AVGO, is up 20% today after releasing earnings.

Pelosi bought up to $5M in Broadcom call options earlier this year: https://t.co/YxQY82bszc
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โ Investing visuals
$AMZN, $GOOGL & $MSFT had a combined cloud revenue of 247 BILLION in 2024.

Every investor should at least own one of them. Do you? ๐Ÿ‘€
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Silver Ring VP on Jazz Pharmaceuticals $JAZZ US

Thesis: Jazz Pharmaceuticals offers significant upside with strong management, a solid balance sheet, and a proven ability to navigate drug transitions

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/B6PmfBgfic
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โ Quiver Quantitative
Just released some big improvements to the Quiver mobile app on iOS.

It makes it super easy to track stock trading by politicians, insiders, and hedge funds.

Working on getting push notifications set up to send alerts on suspicious trades as they are disclosed.

Link below:
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Offshore
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โ Startup Archive
WhatsApp founder Jan Koum on how to deal with competition

โ€œWe always had competition - like from day one. There was actually a point in time where there was a new messaging app popping up every month. And every month there was an article on TechCrunch about how this awesome new messaging app is going to take down all other messaging apps.โ€

But the early WhatsApp team basically just ignored it:

โ€œWe didnโ€™t say anything because we didnโ€™t want to draw attention to ourselves. We actually - on purpose - tried to stay under the radar. But it was just kind of funny to see this dog and pony show that happened with all these apps. There was PingMe. There was MessageMe. There was GroupMe. There was Kickโ€ฆ There were 10 different messaging apps at some point which kept getting all this publicity.โ€

Jan and team said:

โ€œGood for you. Have all the publicity you want. We will just stay under the radar and not have any attention drawn to us.โ€

Jan continues:

โ€œWe always had competition - be it big guys like iMessage or Facebook Messenger or little guys like Kickโ€ฆ Even today we have apps like Telegramโ€ฆ But we always said that our destiny is really in our hands. We canโ€™t worry too much about competition. We have to worry about our product and our users. And if we spend a lot of time thinking about competition or looking at competition, weโ€™re going to fail.โ€

Video source: @StanfordOnline (2017)
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โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $UAMY is up 21% this morning, and is now up 39% in total since this insider purchase was reported. https://t.co/feRamez6sP

๐ŸšจBREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase

The CEO of $UAMY has reported the purchase of ~$300K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 15%.

This is the first insider buy we have ever seen him report. A director at the company also reported a $100K purchase today.
- Insider Radar
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 49.60x
โ€ข1-Year Mean: 48.36x

As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive roughly the same in earnings per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $MELI is a great business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $3.04B

$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL๐Ÿ†—โžก๏ธโœ…
โ€ข2019: (4.8%)
โ€ข2020: 3.7%
โ€ข2021: 8.1%
โ€ข2022: 14.2%
โ€ข2023: 25.3%
โ€ขLTM: 20.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY๐Ÿ†—โžก๏ธโœ…
โ€ข2019: (14.2%)
โ€ข2020: (0.1%)
โ€ข2021: 5.2%
โ€ข2022: 28.7%
โ€ข2023: 40.3%
โ€ขLTM: 42.6%

$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2018: $1.44B
โ€ข2023: $14.47B
โ€ขCAGR: 58.64%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2018: $133.35M
โ€ข2023: $4.63B
โ€ขCAGR: 203.29%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2018: ($0.82)
โ€ข2023: $22.84

SHARE BUYBACKSโŒ
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 44.53M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 51.28M

MARGINS๐Ÿ†—โžก๏ธโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 7.8%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive roughly the same in EPS

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 24.80% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (24.80%) required growth rate:

2024E: $33.59 (47.1% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $45.76 (36.2% YoY)
2026E: $62.50 (36.6% YoY)

$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโ€™s assume $MELI ends 2026 with $62.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

40x P/E: $2500๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~15.5% CAGR

38x P/E: $2375๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~12.7% CAGR

36x P/E: $2250๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~9.7% CAGR

34x P/E: $2125๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~6.7% CAGR

As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >38x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)

$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum

Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐Ÿ”‘

1. Margin expansion

2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy

3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things

Those buying $MELI today at $1856๐Ÿ’ต are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety โ€” however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return

I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700๐Ÿ’ต (~9% below todayโ€™s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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