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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: Last month, we reported on an insider purchase of $EL while the stock was near its 52-week low.
Since then, the stock has been gaining slowly but steadily, and is now up 27%. https://t.co/RcvRhOYfm7
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RT @InsiderRadar: Last month, we reported on an insider purchase of $EL while the stock was near its 52-week low.
Since then, the stock has been gaining slowly but steadily, and is now up 27%. https://t.co/RcvRhOYfm7
🚨 JUST IN: New Insider Purchase
A director of $EL just reported the purchase of ~$10M of the company's stock.
This is the director's second multimillion dollar purchase within the last week. tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on UPS $UPS US
Thesis: UPS offers strong cash flows and an attractive dividend despite short-term headwinds and undervalued potential
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/1bvZPN4F9K
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Artisan Partners on UPS $UPS US
Thesis: UPS offers strong cash flows and an attractive dividend despite short-term headwinds and undervalued potential
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/1bvZPN4F9K
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene made a large purchase of Tesla stock right before the election.
$TSLA has now risen 61% since then. https://t.co/BVeEX48eDf
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Marjorie Taylor Greene made a large purchase of Tesla stock right before the election.
$TSLA has now risen 61% since then. https://t.co/BVeEX48eDf
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Capital Employed
FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #103 with John Davenport @JohnJSCap from J&S Capital @JandSCap
John does a deep dive into a US small cap trading well under its NAV + much more.
You can read the full interview here 👇
https://t.co/EsyO05HhgC https://t.co/r2kRJbrrvA
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FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #103 with John Davenport @JohnJSCap from J&S Capital @JandSCap
John does a deep dive into a US small cap trading well under its NAV + much more.
You can read the full interview here 👇
https://t.co/EsyO05HhgC https://t.co/r2kRJbrrvA
tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Loomis Sayles on Adyen $ADYEN NA
Thesis: Adyen’s industry leadership, secular shift to digital payments, and margin expansion potential position it for long-term growth at a discounted valuation
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/8isGv7mbYr
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Loomis Sayles on Adyen $ADYEN NA
Thesis: Adyen’s industry leadership, secular shift to digital payments, and margin expansion potential position it for long-term growth at a discounted valuation
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/8isGv7mbYr
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Offshore
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Startup Archive
Mark Zuckerberg on how to avoid bad hires when your startup is growing quickly
As Mark explains, every fast-growing startup will repeatedly face the choice: “Do I hire the person who’s in front of me now because they seem good?” or “Do I hold out to get someone who’s even better?”
Mark offers his personal heuristic for founders facing this choice:
“The heuristic that I always focused on for myself and my own kind of direct hiring, that I think works when you recurse it through the organization, is that you should only hire someone to be on your team if you would be happy working for them in an alternate universe. I think that works, and that’s basically how I’ve tried to build my team.”
He continues:
“I’m not in a rush to not be running the company, but I think in an alternate universe where one of these other folks was running the company, I’d be happy to work for them. I feel like I’d learn from them. I respect their general judgment. They’re all very insightful. They have good values… I think if you apply that at every layer in the organization, then you’ll have a pretty strong organization.”
Video source: @lexfridman (2023)
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Mark Zuckerberg on how to avoid bad hires when your startup is growing quickly
As Mark explains, every fast-growing startup will repeatedly face the choice: “Do I hire the person who’s in front of me now because they seem good?” or “Do I hold out to get someone who’s even better?”
Mark offers his personal heuristic for founders facing this choice:
“The heuristic that I always focused on for myself and my own kind of direct hiring, that I think works when you recurse it through the organization, is that you should only hire someone to be on your team if you would be happy working for them in an alternate universe. I think that works, and that’s basically how I’ve tried to build my team.”
He continues:
“I’m not in a rush to not be running the company, but I think in an alternate universe where one of these other folks was running the company, I’d be happy to work for them. I feel like I’d learn from them. I respect their general judgment. They’re all very insightful. They have good values… I think if you apply that at every layer in the organization, then you’ll have a pretty strong organization.”
Video source: @lexfridman (2023)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Lindsell Train on Nintendo $7974 JP
Thesis: Nintendo’s thoughtful console transition strategy, expanding global footprint, and increased digitalization of software sales position it well for long-term growth.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/ngvHKy8ChO
tweet
Lindsell Train on Nintendo $7974 JP
Thesis: Nintendo’s thoughtful console transition strategy, expanding global footprint, and increased digitalization of software sales position it well for long-term growth.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/ngvHKy8ChO
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 2 months ago I stated:
“Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”
Since then, $AMZN shares gained +18% ✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.14x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.88%
•10-Year Mean: 2.86%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in operating cash flow & ~1% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $89.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $61.78B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 13.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 21.9%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.64B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in OCF & ~1% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.14 (38% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.22 (19% YoY)
2026E: $16.85 (27% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.85 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $303.28💵 … ~23.3% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $286.43💵 … ~20.0% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $269.58💵 … ~16.7% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $252.73💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $235.88💵 … ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today [...]
Less than 2 months ago I stated:
“Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”
Since then, $AMZN shares gained +18% ✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.14x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.88%
•10-Year Mean: 2.86%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in operating cash flow & ~1% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $89.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $61.78B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 13.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 21.9%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.64B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in OCF & ~1% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.14 (38% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.22 (19% YoY)
2026E: $16.85 (27% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.85 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $303.28💵 … ~23.3% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $286.43💵 … ~20.0% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $269.58💵 … ~16.7% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $252.73💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $235.88💵 … ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today [...]