Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Liontrust on Interpump $IP IM
Thesis: Interpump’s efficiency-focused solutions and discounted valuation position it well for long-term industrial growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sRPGPxmaiE
tweet
Liontrust on Interpump $IP IM
Thesis: Interpump’s efficiency-focused solutions and discounted valuation position it well for long-term industrial growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sRPGPxmaiE
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Loomis Sayles on Novo Nordisk $NOVO B DC
Thesis: Novo’s leadership in GLP-1 innovation positions it for sustained growth in the obesity treatment market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/R95SupfnjK
tweet
Loomis Sayles on Novo Nordisk $NOVO B DC
Thesis: Novo’s leadership in GLP-1 innovation positions it for sustained growth in the obesity treatment market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/R95SupfnjK
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Perplexity founder Aravind Srinivas explains the “user is never wrong” philosophy of Larry Page
Aravind recounts a story of Larry Page’s meeting with the CEO of Excite. Excite was the #2 search engine behind Yahoo at the time, and they were interested in buying Google. The two CEOs compared the search results of their products side-by-side.
When Google’s results were clearly better, Excite’s CEO tried to excuse his product’s performance: “If you typed the query this way, it would’ve worked.”
Aravind believes this is an important difference in philosophy between Google and Excite. Larry Page believed that a search engine should give high quality answers regardless of what the user typed:
“You do all the magic behind the scenes so that even if the user was lazy, even if there were typos… they still got the answer and they love the product.”
Today Google dominates search, and most people have never heard of Excite.
Aravind believes the best AI products will adopt this same philosophy and that “prompt engineering” won’t be a long-term thing.
“I think you want to make products work where a user doesn’t even ask for something. You know that they want it and you give it to them… People are lazy and a better product should be one that allows you to be more lazy, not less. Products need to have some magic to them, and the magic comes from letting you be more lazy.”
Video source: @lexfridman (2024)
tweet
Perplexity founder Aravind Srinivas explains the “user is never wrong” philosophy of Larry Page
Aravind recounts a story of Larry Page’s meeting with the CEO of Excite. Excite was the #2 search engine behind Yahoo at the time, and they were interested in buying Google. The two CEOs compared the search results of their products side-by-side.
When Google’s results were clearly better, Excite’s CEO tried to excuse his product’s performance: “If you typed the query this way, it would’ve worked.”
Aravind believes this is an important difference in philosophy between Google and Excite. Larry Page believed that a search engine should give high quality answers regardless of what the user typed:
“You do all the magic behind the scenes so that even if the user was lazy, even if there were typos… they still got the answer and they love the product.”
Today Google dominates search, and most people have never heard of Excite.
Aravind believes the best AI products will adopt this same philosophy and that “prompt engineering” won’t be a long-term thing.
“I think you want to make products work where a user doesn’t even ask for something. You know that they want it and you give it to them… People are lazy and a better product should be one that allows you to be more lazy, not less. Products need to have some magic to them, and the magic comes from letting you be more lazy.”
Video source: @lexfridman (2024)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Nike $NKE US
Thesis: Nike’s innovation pipeline and restructuring efforts could unlock significant upside potential for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/tzx1AzIl7k
tweet
Artisan Partners on Nike $NKE US
Thesis: Nike’s innovation pipeline and restructuring efforts could unlock significant upside potential for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/tzx1AzIl7k
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $AMD 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.59x
•3-Year Mean: 32.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.97%
•3-Year Mean: 3.10%
As you can see, $AMD appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMD is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $4.54B
•Long-Term Debt: $1.72B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 21x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️❌
•2019: 17.9%
•2020: 21.5%
•2021: 44.7%
•2022: 2.1%
•2023: 0.7%
•LTM: 2.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️❌*
•2019: 16.7%
•2020: 57.5%
•2021: 47.4%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 1.5%
•LTM: 3.3%
$AMD has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
*the notable drop in ROIC can be attributed to Xilinx acquisition in 2022, increased expenses and investments, among other things
REVENUES✅
•2018: $6.48B
•2023: $22.68B
•CAGR: 28.47%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2018: ($0.13B)
•2023: $1.12B
*2024E FCF is $3.68B 📈
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $0.46
•2023: $2.65
•CAGR: 41.93%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.06B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.64B
By increasing its shares outstanding by 54%, $AMD decreased its EPS by 35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 5.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMD has to grow earnings at a 15.30% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.30%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.32 (25.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.11 (53.8% YoY)
2026E: $7.10 (38.9% YoY)
2027E*: $9.11 (28.2% YoY)
$AMD has a mediocre track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMD ends 2027 with $8.20* in EPS (10% below estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $213.20💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $196.80💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $180.40💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
20x P/E: $164.00💵 … ~5.7% CAGR
As you can see, $AMD appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >24x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >26x earnings
Assuming 24x is very reasonable given $AMD growth rate — however this is a high degree of uncertainty when it comes to $AMD multi-year projections (for better or for worse)
Today at $138💵 $AMD still appears to be a decent consideration for investment
To account for the high uncertainty and aggressive growth projections, I would require a more substantial margin of safety
I’d consider $AMD a strong consideration closer to $120💵 (~13.5% below today’s price) or at ~26.50x NTM estimates, where I can expect ~14% CAGR assuming 22x
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet
A quality valuation analysis on $AMD 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.59x
•3-Year Mean: 32.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.97%
•3-Year Mean: 3.10%
As you can see, $AMD appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMD is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $4.54B
•Long-Term Debt: $1.72B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 21x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️❌
•2019: 17.9%
•2020: 21.5%
•2021: 44.7%
•2022: 2.1%
•2023: 0.7%
•LTM: 2.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️❌*
•2019: 16.7%
•2020: 57.5%
•2021: 47.4%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 1.5%
•LTM: 3.3%
$AMD has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
*the notable drop in ROIC can be attributed to Xilinx acquisition in 2022, increased expenses and investments, among other things
REVENUES✅
•2018: $6.48B
•2023: $22.68B
•CAGR: 28.47%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2018: ($0.13B)
•2023: $1.12B
*2024E FCF is $3.68B 📈
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $0.46
•2023: $2.65
•CAGR: 41.93%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.06B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.64B
By increasing its shares outstanding by 54%, $AMD decreased its EPS by 35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 5.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMD has to grow earnings at a 15.30% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.30%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.32 (25.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.11 (53.8% YoY)
2026E: $7.10 (38.9% YoY)
2027E*: $9.11 (28.2% YoY)
$AMD has a mediocre track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMD ends 2027 with $8.20* in EPS (10% below estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $213.20💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $196.80💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $180.40💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
20x P/E: $164.00💵 … ~5.7% CAGR
As you can see, $AMD appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >24x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >26x earnings
Assuming 24x is very reasonable given $AMD growth rate — however this is a high degree of uncertainty when it comes to $AMD multi-year projections (for better or for worse)
Today at $138💵 $AMD still appears to be a decent consideration for investment
To account for the high uncertainty and aggressive growth projections, I would require a more substantial margin of safety
I’d consider $AMD a strong consideration closer to $120💵 (~13.5% below today’s price) or at ~26.50x NTM estimates, where I can expect ~14% CAGR assuming 22x
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Startup Archive
"A startup is the largest group of people you can convince of a plan to build a different future."
- Peter Thiel
tweet
"A startup is the largest group of people you can convince of a plan to build a different future."
- Peter Thiel
"Startup Thinking" by Peter Thiel https://t.co/XXP3ngZAVK tweet