Offshore
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โ Investing visuals
Investing 101: mistakes than can cost you a lot๐ธ https://t.co/VBSmJ2R5fh
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Investing 101: mistakes than can cost you a lot๐ธ https://t.co/VBSmJ2R5fh
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Hotchkis & Wiley on General Motors $GM US
Thesis: GMโs strong market position, attractive valuation, and commitment to shareholder returns make it a compelling buy
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VdLc9u0qSj
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Hotchkis & Wiley on General Motors $GM US
Thesis: GMโs strong market position, attractive valuation, and commitment to shareholder returns make it a compelling buy
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VdLc9u0qSj
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โ Ahmad Jivraj
Investing rewards people who (mostly) do nothing.
As @MohnishPabrai says, "good investing is like watching paint dry"
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Investing rewards people who (mostly) do nothing.
As @MohnishPabrai says, "good investing is like watching paint dry"
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Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
A long read in @WSJ on John Elkann's and his latest steps at $STLA. Not saying much really.
"Honestly guys, what we really need to do is sell cars. Thatโs what weโre good at", - [John Elkann] said at the Michigan meeting this week. https://t.co/jABMTnRdvK
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A long read in @WSJ on John Elkann's and his latest steps at $STLA. Not saying much really.
"Honestly guys, what we really need to do is sell cars. Thatโs what weโre good at", - [John Elkann] said at the Michigan meeting this week. https://t.co/jABMTnRdvK
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Liontrust on Interpump $IP IM
Thesis: Interpumpโs efficiency-focused solutions and discounted valuation position it well for long-term industrial growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sRPGPxmaiE
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Liontrust on Interpump $IP IM
Thesis: Interpumpโs efficiency-focused solutions and discounted valuation position it well for long-term industrial growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sRPGPxmaiE
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Loomis Sayles on Novo Nordisk $NOVO B DC
Thesis: Novoโs leadership in GLP-1 innovation positions it for sustained growth in the obesity treatment market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/R95SupfnjK
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Loomis Sayles on Novo Nordisk $NOVO B DC
Thesis: Novoโs leadership in GLP-1 innovation positions it for sustained growth in the obesity treatment market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/R95SupfnjK
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Offshore
Video
โ Startup Archive
Perplexity founder Aravind Srinivas explains the โuser is never wrongโ philosophy of Larry Page
Aravind recounts a story of Larry Pageโs meeting with the CEO of Excite. Excite was the #2 search engine behind Yahoo at the time, and they were interested in buying Google. The two CEOs compared the search results of their products side-by-side.
When Googleโs results were clearly better, Exciteโs CEO tried to excuse his productโs performance: โIf you typed the query this way, it wouldโve worked.โ
Aravind believes this is an important difference in philosophy between Google and Excite. Larry Page believed that a search engine should give high quality answers regardless of what the user typed:
โYou do all the magic behind the scenes so that even if the user was lazy, even if there were typosโฆ they still got the answer and they love the product.โ
Today Google dominates search, and most people have never heard of Excite.
Aravind believes the best AI products will adopt this same philosophy and that โprompt engineeringโ wonโt be a long-term thing.
โI think you want to make products work where a user doesnโt even ask for something. You know that they want it and you give it to themโฆ People are lazy and a better product should be one that allows you to be more lazy, not less. Products need to have some magic to them, and the magic comes from letting you be more lazy.โ
Video source: @lexfridman (2024)
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Perplexity founder Aravind Srinivas explains the โuser is never wrongโ philosophy of Larry Page
Aravind recounts a story of Larry Pageโs meeting with the CEO of Excite. Excite was the #2 search engine behind Yahoo at the time, and they were interested in buying Google. The two CEOs compared the search results of their products side-by-side.
When Googleโs results were clearly better, Exciteโs CEO tried to excuse his productโs performance: โIf you typed the query this way, it wouldโve worked.โ
Aravind believes this is an important difference in philosophy between Google and Excite. Larry Page believed that a search engine should give high quality answers regardless of what the user typed:
โYou do all the magic behind the scenes so that even if the user was lazy, even if there were typosโฆ they still got the answer and they love the product.โ
Today Google dominates search, and most people have never heard of Excite.
Aravind believes the best AI products will adopt this same philosophy and that โprompt engineeringโ wonโt be a long-term thing.
โI think you want to make products work where a user doesnโt even ask for something. You know that they want it and you give it to themโฆ People are lazy and a better product should be one that allows you to be more lazy, not less. Products need to have some magic to them, and the magic comes from letting you be more lazy.โ
Video source: @lexfridman (2024)
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Nike $NKE US
Thesis: Nikeโs innovation pipeline and restructuring efforts could unlock significant upside potential for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/tzx1AzIl7k
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Artisan Partners on Nike $NKE US
Thesis: Nikeโs innovation pipeline and restructuring efforts could unlock significant upside potential for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/tzx1AzIl7k
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $AMD ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.59x
โข3-Year Mean: 32.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.97%
โข3-Year Mean: 3.10%
As you can see, $AMD appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMD is a good business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $4.54B
โขLong-Term Debt: $1.72B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 21x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ โก๏ธโ
โข2019: 17.9%
โข2020: 21.5%
โข2021: 44.7%
โข2022: 2.1%
โข2023: 0.7%
โขLTM: 2.3%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ โก๏ธโ*
โข2019: 16.7%
โข2020: 57.5%
โข2021: 47.4%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 1.5%
โขLTM: 3.3%
$AMD has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
*the notable drop in ROIC can be attributed to Xilinx acquisition in 2022, increased expenses and investments, among other things
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $6.48B
โข2023: $22.68B
โขCAGR: 28.47%
FREE CASH FLOWโโก๏ธโ
โข2018: ($0.13B)
โข2023: $1.12B
*2024E FCF is $3.68B ๐
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $0.46
โข2023: $2.65
โขCAGR: 41.93%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.06B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.64B
By increasing its shares outstanding by 54%, $AMD decreased its EPS by 35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS๐
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 5.6%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 7.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $AMD has to grow earnings at a 15.30% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.30%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.32 (25.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.11 (53.8% YoY)
2026E: $7.10 (38.9% YoY)
2027E*: $9.11 (28.2% YoY)
$AMD has a mediocre track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMD ends 2027 with $8.20* in EPS (10% below estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $213.20๐ต โฆ ~15.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $196.80๐ต โฆ ~12.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $180.40๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
20x P/E: $164.00๐ต โฆ ~5.7% CAGR
As you can see, $AMD appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >24x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >26x earnings
Assuming 24x is very reasonable given $AMD growth rate โ however this is a high degree of uncertainty when it comes to $AMD multi-year projections (for better or for worse)
Today at $138๐ต $AMD still appears to be a decent consideration for investment
To account for the high uncertainty and aggressive growth projections, I would require a more substantial margin of safety
Iโd consider $AMD a strong consideration closer to $120๐ต (~13.5% below todayโs price) or at ~26.50x NTM estimates, where I can expect ~14% CAGR assuming 22x
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A quality valuation analysis on $AMD ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.59x
โข3-Year Mean: 32.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.97%
โข3-Year Mean: 3.10%
As you can see, $AMD appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMD is a good business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $4.54B
โขLong-Term Debt: $1.72B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 21x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ โก๏ธโ
โข2019: 17.9%
โข2020: 21.5%
โข2021: 44.7%
โข2022: 2.1%
โข2023: 0.7%
โขLTM: 2.3%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ โก๏ธโ*
โข2019: 16.7%
โข2020: 57.5%
โข2021: 47.4%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 1.5%
โขLTM: 3.3%
$AMD has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
*the notable drop in ROIC can be attributed to Xilinx acquisition in 2022, increased expenses and investments, among other things
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $6.48B
โข2023: $22.68B
โขCAGR: 28.47%
FREE CASH FLOWโโก๏ธโ
โข2018: ($0.13B)
โข2023: $1.12B
*2024E FCF is $3.68B ๐
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $0.46
โข2023: $2.65
โขCAGR: 41.93%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.06B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.64B
By increasing its shares outstanding by 54%, $AMD decreased its EPS by 35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS๐
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 5.6%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 7.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $AMD has to grow earnings at a 15.30% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.30%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.32 (25.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.11 (53.8% YoY)
2026E: $7.10 (38.9% YoY)
2027E*: $9.11 (28.2% YoY)
$AMD has a mediocre track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMD ends 2027 with $8.20* in EPS (10% below estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $213.20๐ต โฆ ~15.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $196.80๐ต โฆ ~12.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $180.40๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
20x P/E: $164.00๐ต โฆ ~5.7% CAGR
As you can see, $AMD appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >24x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >26x earnings
Assuming 24x is very reasonable given $AMD growth rate โ however this is a high degree of uncertainty when it comes to $AMD multi-year projections (for better or for worse)
Today at $138๐ต $AMD still appears to be a decent consideration for investment
To account for the high uncertainty and aggressive growth projections, I would require a more substantial margin of safety
Iโd consider $AMD a strong consideration closer to $120๐ต (~13.5% below todayโs price) or at ~26.50x NTM estimates, where I can expect ~14% CAGR assuming 22x
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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