Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Sea $SE US
Thesis: Sea combines growth in e-commerce, gaming, and payments while holding its ground against TikTok’s market challenges
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/XFuX2erX9p
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Artisan Partners on Sea $SE US
Thesis: Sea combines growth in e-commerce, gaming, and payments while holding its ground against TikTok’s market challenges
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/XFuX2erX9p
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Dev Kantesaria on Rarely Selling 🧘🏽♂️
“ …the lack of turnover is really nothing other than a natural outcome of how we think about business quality and wanting to own a business that has great quality and sustainability for the next 10 years, 20 years… ”
#stocks #investing https://t.co/HvNerHcwDr
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Dev Kantesaria on Rarely Selling 🧘🏽♂️
“ …the lack of turnover is really nothing other than a natural outcome of how we think about business quality and wanting to own a business that has great quality and sustainability for the next 10 years, 20 years… ”
#stocks #investing https://t.co/HvNerHcwDr
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: 2 C-Suite Insider Purchases at $DMLP
The CEO and CFO of $DMLP have each reported the purchase of over $400k of the company's stock.
These are the largest insider buys that either of them have ever reported.
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RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: 2 C-Suite Insider Purchases at $DMLP
The CEO and CFO of $DMLP have each reported the purchase of over $400k of the company's stock.
These are the largest insider buys that either of them have ever reported.
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Mobius CP on FPT $FPT VN
Thesis: FPT’s cost advantages and international expansion make it a leader in Vietnam’s technology sector with strong growth prospects
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VfZIUlNp1u
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Mobius CP on FPT $FPT VN
Thesis: FPT’s cost advantages and international expansion make it a leader in Vietnam’s technology sector with strong growth prospects
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VfZIUlNp1u
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Broyhill AM on Evolution AB $EVO SS
Thesis: Evolution AB’s high margins and undervaluation position it as a strong bet on online gaming expansion
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/gZ78OwEt8e
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Broyhill AM on Evolution AB $EVO SS
Thesis: Evolution AB’s high margins and undervaluation position it as a strong bet on online gaming expansion
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/gZ78OwEt8e
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Jeff Bezos on raising Amazon’s seed round: “It was the hardest thing I’ve ever done”
“To raise the first $1 million of seed capital for Amazon, I sold 20% of the company at a $5 million valuation. I sold 20% of the company for a million dollars to 22 angel investors, roughly $50,000 each.”
Jeff recalls taking 60 meetings to get to those 22 angels who said yes, which means roughly 40 of the investors he pitched said no.
“And by the way, the 40 ‘no’s were hard-earned ‘no’s… They were multiple meetings, working really hard to get people to write that $50,000 check. And the whole enterprise could have been extinguished then.”
This was in 1995, and the first question Jeff would always get was, “What’s the Internet?”
So Jeff would patiently explain what the Internet was. He would also always tell them he thought there was a 70% chance they would lose their investment.
“In retrospect, I think that might have been a little naive, but I think it was true. In fact, if anything, I think was giving myself better than the real odds.”
Video source: @nytimesevents (2024)
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Jeff Bezos on raising Amazon’s seed round: “It was the hardest thing I’ve ever done”
“To raise the first $1 million of seed capital for Amazon, I sold 20% of the company at a $5 million valuation. I sold 20% of the company for a million dollars to 22 angel investors, roughly $50,000 each.”
Jeff recalls taking 60 meetings to get to those 22 angels who said yes, which means roughly 40 of the investors he pitched said no.
“And by the way, the 40 ‘no’s were hard-earned ‘no’s… They were multiple meetings, working really hard to get people to write that $50,000 check. And the whole enterprise could have been extinguished then.”
This was in 1995, and the first question Jeff would always get was, “What’s the Internet?”
So Jeff would patiently explain what the Internet was. He would also always tell them he thought there was a 70% chance they would lose their investment.
“In retrospect, I think that might have been a little naive, but I think it was true. In fact, if anything, I think was giving myself better than the real odds.”
Video source: @nytimesevents (2024)
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $UBER 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.43x
•YTD Mean: 19.67x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.13%
•YTD Mean: 3.97%
As you can see, $UBER appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~44% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at $UBER business quality
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.06B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.84B
$UBER has a strong balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating & 11x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️🆗
•2019: (35.9%)
•2020: (18.1%)
•2021: (14.0%)
•2022: (9.0%)
•2023: 4.5%
•LTM: 8.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2019: (77.5%)
•2020: (46.9%)
•2021: (3.9%)
•2022: (76.6%)
•2023: 20.4%
•LTM: 34.3%
$UBER has ok return metrics
REVENUES✅
•2019: $13.00B
•2023: $37.28B
•CAGR: 30.13%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2019: ($4.91B)
•2023: $3.36B
NORMALIZED EPS❌➡️✅
•2019: ($2.49)
•2023: $1.82
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: $1.25B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: $2.08B
By increasing its shares outstanding ~66%, $UBER decreased its EPS by ~40% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS❌➡️🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 32.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 6.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~44% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $UBER has to grow earnings at an 9.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.84%) required growth rate:
2024E: $2.81 (54.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $3.15 (12.0% YoY)
2026E: $4.02 (27.7% YoY)
2027E: $5.09 (26.6% YoY)
$UBER has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $UBER ends 2027 with $4.56 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $100.32💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
21x P/E: $95.76💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
20x P/E: $91.20💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
19x P/E: $86.64💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, $UBER appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20 earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate)
At >22x earnings, $UBER has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to trade for ~22x (given its growth rate, balance sheet, & improving financials)
Those buying today have some margin of safety given, especially since we reduced 2027 EPS estimates by ~10%
Today at $65💵 $UBER appears to be a decent consideration for investment
However, I am personally not as interested in $UBER as it fails to meet some of my quality requirements & I am unforgiving with business selection … I already have an investable universe with the world’s highest-quality names & don’t need to make an exception for a decent business
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A quality valuation analysis on $UBER 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.43x
•YTD Mean: 19.67x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.13%
•YTD Mean: 3.97%
As you can see, $UBER appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~44% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at $UBER business quality
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.06B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.84B
$UBER has a strong balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating & 11x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️🆗
•2019: (35.9%)
•2020: (18.1%)
•2021: (14.0%)
•2022: (9.0%)
•2023: 4.5%
•LTM: 8.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2019: (77.5%)
•2020: (46.9%)
•2021: (3.9%)
•2022: (76.6%)
•2023: 20.4%
•LTM: 34.3%
$UBER has ok return metrics
REVENUES✅
•2019: $13.00B
•2023: $37.28B
•CAGR: 30.13%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2019: ($4.91B)
•2023: $3.36B
NORMALIZED EPS❌➡️✅
•2019: ($2.49)
•2023: $1.82
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: $1.25B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: $2.08B
By increasing its shares outstanding ~66%, $UBER decreased its EPS by ~40% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS❌➡️🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 32.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 6.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~44% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $UBER has to grow earnings at an 9.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.84%) required growth rate:
2024E: $2.81 (54.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $3.15 (12.0% YoY)
2026E: $4.02 (27.7% YoY)
2027E: $5.09 (26.6% YoY)
$UBER has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $UBER ends 2027 with $4.56 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $100.32💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
21x P/E: $95.76💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
20x P/E: $91.20💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
19x P/E: $86.64💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, $UBER appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20 earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate)
At >22x earnings, $UBER has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to trade for ~22x (given its growth rate, balance sheet, & improving financials)
Those buying today have some margin of safety given, especially since we reduced 2027 EPS estimates by ~10%
Today at $65💵 $UBER appears to be a decent consideration for investment
However, I am personally not as interested in $UBER as it fails to meet some of my quality requirements & I am unforgiving with business selection … I already have an investable universe with the world’s highest-quality names & don’t need to make an exception for a decent business
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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