⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
4 months ago I suggested $DHR was trading for a substantial premium at $240💵 & that I’d be more interested closer to $200💵

Since then, $DHR shares traded slightly down ~4% while the indexes have rallied ✅

As I stated in the analysis (post shared below):

“As you can see, $DHR needs to trade above 32x to have attractive return potential

While possible, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with any margin of safety

While the 10-year mean multiple is 25.18x, I’d be content relying on somewhere closer to 27x - 28x earnings given $DHR quality, culture, competitive advantage, earnings growth rate & the quality of earnings, & long-term tailwinds in the sector

Yet, even at 27x - 28x earnings, the return potential outlook is bleak

Today at $240💵 $DHR is trading at a substantial premium

I’d become interested in $DHR closer to $200💵 or at ~25.50x NTM earnings (roughly 16.7% below today’s price)”

#stocks #investing"

A sober valuation analysis on $DHR 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.69x
•10-Year Mean: 25.18x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.34%
•10-Year Mean: 3.24%

As you can see, $DHR appears to be trading above fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~18% LESS in earnings per share & ~25% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $DHR is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $7.03B
•Long-Term Debt: $16.42B

$DHR has a great balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 22x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗*
•2019: 6.2%
•2020: 7.8%
•2021: 10.3%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 7.4%
•LTM: 7.2%

*ROIC relatively low partly due to $DHR growth strategy (acquisitions, capital allocation, etc)

RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 10.8%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 13.3%
•2023: 8.2%
•LTM: 7.8%

$DHR has decent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $17.05B
•2023: $23.89B
•CAGR: 6.97%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $3.44B
•2023: $5.78B
•CAGR: 10.93%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $7.58
•2023: $4.52
•CAGR: 10.89%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 0.70B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.74B

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 21.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% LESS in EPS & ~25% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $DHR has to grow earnings at a 15.35% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (15.35%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.62 (0.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.74 (14.8% YoY)
2026E: $9.71 (11.0% YoY)

$DHR has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $DHR ends 2026 with $9.71 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $310.72💵 … ~11.3% CAGR

28x P/E: $271.88💵 … ~5.5% CAGR

27x P/E: $262.16💵 … ~4.0% CAGR

26x P/E: $252.46💵 … ~2.5% CAGR

25x P/E: $242.75💵 … ~1.0% CAGR

As you can see, $DHR needs to trade above 32x to have attractive return potential

While possible, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with any margin of safety

While the 10-year mean multiple is 25.18x, I’d be content relying on somewhere closer to 27x - 28x earnings given $DHR quality, culture, competitive advantage, earnings growth rate & the quality of earnings, & long-term tailwinds in the sector

Yet, even at 27x - 28x earnings, the return potential outlook is bleak

Today at $240💵 $DHR is trading at a substantial premium

I’d become interested in $DHR closer to $200💵 or at ~25.50x NTM earnings (roughly 16.7% b[...]

elow today’s price)

At that price, I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming 27x & ~10.2% CAGR while assuming 26x, a multiple I view as fair for $DHR

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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AkhenOsiris
BABA black sheep has pulled the wool on everyone yet again 😂
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AkhenOsiris
Did APP CEO have a secret gay tryst with Trump 😂 not even a Nas 500 pt dump can break the parabolic move
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AkhenOsiris
RT @kouroshshafi: Amazon down despite Bezos done selling,

US Retail sales print positive for e-commerce (+9.4% vs +7.7% last month)

Alt data estimate full 4Q North America net sales could grow 10% to 11% Y/Y, trending above Visible
Alpha (VA) consensus (8% Y/Y)

13f highlights - Kourosh
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @shrihacker: new definition of Diva:

expects a lot
drives hard
controversial
passionate

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt on why you should hire the divas: “Steve Jobs was a diva”

“If you read any management textbook, it says ‘don’t hire the divas’ because they’re nothing but a pain in the ass. And by the way, they are. But the people who are the divas—who believe—are the ones who will drive the culture and company to excellence. Steve Jobs was a diva. I worked with Bill Joy who was my colleague for many years—he’s an example of a diva. And I mean this in the most flattering way: they expect a lot, they drive people hard, they’re controversial, and they care passionately. If you find those people, you’re probably going to work for one so be nice to them.”

However, Eric does not mean that you should tolerate arrogant jerks at your company.

In his book How Google Works, he uses use the terms “divas” and “knaves” to distinguish between who you should tolerate and who you shouldn’t:

“Knavish behavior is a product of low integrity; diva-ish behavior is one of high exceptionalism. Knaves prioritize the individual over the team; divas think they are better than the team, but want success equally for both. Knaves need to be dealt with as quickly as possible. But as long as their contributions match their outlandish egos, divas should be tolerated and even protected. Great people are often unusual and difficult, and some of those quirks can be quite off-putting. Since culture is about social norms and divas refuse to be normal, cultural factors can conspire
to sweep out the divas along with the knaves. As long as people can figure out any way to work with the divas, and the divas’ achievements outweigh the collateral damage caused by their diva ways, you should fight for them. They will pay off your investment by doing interesting things.”

Video source: @GreylockVC (2015) - Startup Archive
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: This week has been a busy one for insider trading, and while the S&P 500 is down 2.3% on the week, several insiders saw an early profit on their trades.

Here's a round-up on all of the $1M+ insider buys that we reported on this week:

$44M purchase of $SATS by Board Chairman on 11/14. Since our report, the stock has been flat.

$14.4M purchase by $OSCR CEO on 11/14. Since then the stock has risen 3%.

$6M purchase by $BH CEO on 11/14. Since then the stock has been flat.

$2.1M purchase by $SEDG Board Chairman on 11/13. Since then the stock has risen 3%.

$2M purchase by $ROK CFO on 11/12. Since then the stock has risen 3%.

$1.9M purchase by $SMLR director on 11/12. Since then the stock has fallen 10%.

$1M purchase by $EXAS CEO on 11/13. Since then the stock has risen 1%.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $TMO 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.68x
•5-Year Mean: 24.92x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.09%
•5-Year Mean: 3.59%

As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TMO is a great business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $31.20B

$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅*
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 13.4%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 10.3%
•2023: 8.7%
•LTM: 8.6%

*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 12.9%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 16.4%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 12.9%

$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.09B
•2023: $42.86B
•CAGR: 12.59%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.73B
•2023: $6.93B
•CAGR: 14.88%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.42
•2023: $21.55
•CAGR: 14.80%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 365.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 40.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.5%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.84%) required growth rate:

2024E: $21.70 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $23.58 (8.7% YoY)
2026E: $26.37 (11.8% YoY)

$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $TMO ends 2026 with $26.37 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

27x P/E: $711.99💵 … ~14.0% CAGR

26x P/E: $685.62💵 … ~12.0% CAGR

25x P/E: $659.25💵 … ~10.0% CAGR

24x P/E: $632.88💵 … ~7.9% CAGR

As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >26x earnings (a multiple above its 5-year mean & multiple that may be slightly demanding given its growth rate

However, $TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand

Yet, those buying $TMO today at $541💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety

I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Capital Employed
RT @longcastadviser: i'm not sure being a buddhist makes anyone a better investor, but i know a lot of PM's who are practicing buddhists. it reinforces the view that investing is about emotional self management, sitting with discomfort and giving up on certainty and want.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Longriver Partners Fund on Hikari $6247

Thesis: Hikari Tsushin, the 'Berkshire of Japan, offers a rare deep value opportunity, trading at just 3x trailing earnings with a portfolio of stable, asset-light businesses

(Extract from their Q3 letter, link to the analysis in SAC#64) https://t.co/8owrUBCuLb
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