⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Choice Equities CM on Hain Celestial Group $HAIN US

Thesis: Hain Celestial’s new management is driving a turnaround with a focus on organic growth and profitability in the natural products sector, positioning the company for strong future gains

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/TwI6bG3Bnb
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: 3 large new insider purchases

Rockwell Automation, $ROK - $2m purchase by CFO
Heidrick & Struggles, $HSII - $230k purchase by CEO
Highpeak Energy, $HPK - $240k purchase by CEO
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$SAVE files for bankruptcy, to be expected 📉

#stocks #investing

WHY YOU SHOULD AVOID INVESTING IN AIRLINES ⚠️

First, let’s take a look at the last 5-year returns of 4 major airlines:

1) $AAL -67% (American Airlines)
2) $UAL -32% (United Airlines)
3) $JBLU -63% (JetBlue)
4) $DAL -34% (Delta)

Why do airlines post such poor results for investors? It’s simple. On average, here are the economics of the sector:

COST OF CAPITAL: ~8%
RETURN ON CAPITAL (ROIC): ~4%

Would you want to own a business that pays $8 just to receive $4 in return?

Of course not. Airlines BLEED MONEY EVERY DAY.

As Warren Buffett asserted in his 2007 Shareholder Letter $BRK.B $BRK.A:

“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think AIRLINES ... The airline industry's demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable.

Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989.”

#stocks #investing - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
When you don't even make a million dollars in the market in a day: https://t.co/Vg7OaTiZt1

Asked Pelosi how she’s doing.

“Terrible,” she said - Manu Raju
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative María Salazar has bought more stock in Antero Resources, $AR.

Antero Resources is an oil and natural gas company.

Salazar started buying stock in the company back in August.

We have not seen any other politicians trade the stock in over two years. https://t.co/SrbA9MycKx
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Nippon Television Holdings $9404 JP

Thesis: NTV’s resilient earnings and strategic acquisition of Studio Ghibli offer a unique value play, with the stock trading at a discount despite a strong downside protection.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/eyZf7K7Y3T
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Oakmark on Diageo $DGE LN

Thesis: Diageo’s unrivaled brand portfolio and global scale provide strong competitive advantages, making it a compelling buy at current levels with potential for recovery from recent market weakness

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/s16FzpwD6H
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⁠Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on the importance of pitching your startup as a “discount to the future”

Most founders will pitch their startup valuation as a sort of premium on the last round (e.g. “Our valuation last year was X, we’ve made Y progress, and now we deserve a valuation 2x greater.”)

But Thiel argues that this is “completely wrong.”

“The value is never a premium on the past. It’s always a discount to the future. I think the way one should always try to pitch the value of a company is by explaining why it will be worth a lot more in the future and why investors are getting to invest at a point that it’s a lot cheaper.”

He uses his experience fundraising for PayPal as an example. In March 2000, PayPal raised a round at a $500M pre-money valuation, which was a massive premium on the $45M valuation from their raise 3-months prior (note: PayPal also completed a 50/50 merger with Elon Musk’s x in this 3-month period).

How did they get a 5x step up in 3 months?

Thiel explains:

“The way we presented the round was: this is going to be the last round before the IPO. We got people thinking the next round is going to be the IPO and this was going to be at a discount to the IPO. It doesn’t matter what happened three months ago—you’re getting it at a discount to the IPO.”

He concludes:

“Always think of it as a discount to the future. Never a premium on the past.”

Video source: @GA (2015)
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Vulcan Value Partners on LVMH $MC FP

Thesis: LVMH’s unparalleled portfolio of iconic luxury brands and strong long-term focus provide a unique opportunity for compounding growth, making it an attractive buy amid recent market volatility.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sCVvijPF9r
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