Librarian Capital
RT @LindseyGrahamSC: If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.
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RT @LindseyGrahamSC: If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Drew Houston explains how he built Dropbox with the AARRR Framework
“We had a lot of competitors who built things that were reasonably functional, but they didn’t get distribution right. And they didn’t get virality right.”
How’d Dropbox get it right?
Drew recalls using Dave McClure’s “Startup Metrics for Pirates: AARRR!!!” framework to run the company in the early days.
The gist of the framework is to measure and constantly improve five core metrics: Acquisition, Activation, Revenue, Retention, and Referral.
The first example he gives is Activation:
“Users come in. Oh my god, 4 out of 5 who signed up don’t put a file in their Dropbox or install a client. What’s going on?”
As Drew partially explains in the clip, they went on Craigslist and offered $40 to anyone who'd come in for a 30-minute usability test. They asked these people to go from a Dropbox e-mail invitation to sharing a file with another email address.
“Zero of the five people succeeded. Zero of the five even came close.”
This stunned the team. So they made a list of 80+ things in an Excel spreadsheet and sanded down all of the rough edges in the experience. Their activation rate climbed from there.
“Really paying attention to all the steps and the viral engine and tuning that as much as possible,” as Drew explains, was crucial.
For the Referral step of the framework, Dropbox used a combination of organic virality (users sharing files with nonusers) and incentivized virality (free file storage for each person you refer) to achieve exponential growth.
For initial user acquisition, Drew famously created a viral video demoing Dropbox and shared it to Digg and Reddit to build the initial waitlist.
“It was inspired by some of the stuff I saw in the late 90s and early 2000s. PayPal had an incentive referral bonus. I had the idea for the DIgg and Reddit video based on a book called Guerrilla Marketing, which was like, How do you do marketing and get users when you have no money?… A lot of the dots were connected from things I had read over the last several years.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2017)
tweet
Drew Houston explains how he built Dropbox with the AARRR Framework
“We had a lot of competitors who built things that were reasonably functional, but they didn’t get distribution right. And they didn’t get virality right.”
How’d Dropbox get it right?
Drew recalls using Dave McClure’s “Startup Metrics for Pirates: AARRR!!!” framework to run the company in the early days.
The gist of the framework is to measure and constantly improve five core metrics: Acquisition, Activation, Revenue, Retention, and Referral.
The first example he gives is Activation:
“Users come in. Oh my god, 4 out of 5 who signed up don’t put a file in their Dropbox or install a client. What’s going on?”
As Drew partially explains in the clip, they went on Craigslist and offered $40 to anyone who'd come in for a 30-minute usability test. They asked these people to go from a Dropbox e-mail invitation to sharing a file with another email address.
“Zero of the five people succeeded. Zero of the five even came close.”
This stunned the team. So they made a list of 80+ things in an Excel spreadsheet and sanded down all of the rough edges in the experience. Their activation rate climbed from there.
“Really paying attention to all the steps and the viral engine and tuning that as much as possible,” as Drew explains, was crucial.
For the Referral step of the framework, Dropbox used a combination of organic virality (users sharing files with nonusers) and incentivized virality (free file storage for each person you refer) to achieve exponential growth.
For initial user acquisition, Drew famously created a viral video demoing Dropbox and shared it to Digg and Reddit to build the initial waitlist.
“It was inspired by some of the stuff I saw in the late 90s and early 2000s. PayPal had an incentive referral bonus. I had the idea for the DIgg and Reddit video based on a book called Guerrilla Marketing, which was like, How do you do marketing and get users when you have no money?… A lot of the dots were connected from things I had read over the last several years.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2017)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.80x
•10-Year Mean: 23.61x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.41%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $136.82B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 17.57%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $22.83B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 24.93%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 21.50%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~5% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.90%) required growth rate:
2024E: $8.00 (38.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.93 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $10.12 (13.3% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.54💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.56💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.58💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.60💵 … ~8.8% CAGR
19x P/E: $189.62💵 … ~6.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >21x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >23x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Those buying today have a decent margin of safety given
In $GOOG latest report we saw a strong re-acceleration in cloud growth ☁️ & margins continue to expand
Today at $170💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.80x
•10-Year Mean: 23.61x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.41%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $136.82B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 17.57%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $22.83B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 24.93%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 21.50%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~5% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.90%) required growth rate:
2024E: $8.00 (38.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.93 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $10.12 (13.3% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.54💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.56💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.58💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.60💵 … ~8.8% CAGR
19x P/E: $189.62💵 … ~6.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >21x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >23x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Those buying today have a decent margin of safety given
In $GOOG latest report we saw a strong re-acceleration in cloud growth ☁️ & margins continue to expand
Today at $170💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
Video
Librarian Capital
RT @CalltoActivism: Wow! Jimmy Kimmel made a brilliant super cut of all the crazy things Trump has said.
It’s easy to forget these, but this video is masterful:
https://t.co/PD5BSg5iou
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RT @CalltoActivism: Wow! Jimmy Kimmel made a brilliant super cut of all the crazy things Trump has said.
It’s easy to forget these, but this video is masterful:
https://t.co/PD5BSg5iou
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Librarian Capital
RT @opinion: @keds_economist @nirkaissar Heed the brightest minds in economics when they issue a dire warning about inflation, deficits and inequality if Trump is reelected.
Read @keds_economist ⬇️
https://t.co/Qb8omn2Xpl
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RT @opinion: @keds_economist @nirkaissar Heed the brightest minds in economics when they issue a dire warning about inflation, deficits and inequality if Trump is reelected.
Read @keds_economist ⬇️
https://t.co/Qb8omn2Xpl
tweet
Librarian Capital
Good account to follow for election watch today:
Stuart Stevens, veteran GOP operator and, among other things, Romney's senior strategist in 2012
Latest: "It’s amusing to see Elon Musk displaying a 7th grade understanding of American politics"
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Good account to follow for election watch today:
Stuart Stevens, veteran GOP operator and, among other things, Romney's senior strategist in 2012
Latest: "It’s amusing to see Elon Musk displaying a 7th grade understanding of American politics"
What an idiot. Republicans over performed Dems in early voting for decades. Early voting programs were the crown jewels of RNC, NRSC, NRCC (you can have someone google those for you, Elon.)
Last cycle, idiot child Trump told Rs not to vote early. The Rs responded on cue.
Prior to 2020, there were many elections in which Republicans led early voting and lost. In Pa, it routinely happened given the collar county R political machines that no longer exist. In fact it happened in every presidential election between 1988 and 2016. Rs lead in Pa early voting and lost.
On one level, it’s amusing to see Elon Musk displaying a 7th grade understanding of American politics. But it’s dangerous.
He and Trump are laying the groundwork to claim fraud when Trump loses. It won’t work but could tear America a little further apart. Which is one of the goals they share with Russia. tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Praetorian Capital on Valaris $VAL US
Thesis: With recovery in oil prices and increasing demand for exploration, undervalued oilfield services stocks are poised for significant upside.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/mV4qLwOngZ
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Praetorian Capital on Valaris $VAL US
Thesis: With recovery in oil prices and increasing demand for exploration, undervalued oilfield services stocks are poised for significant upside.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/mV4qLwOngZ
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon's quarter:
☁️ AWS market share update.
📊 Ads and Prime momentum.
🤖 AI revenue growing triple-digit.
Dive deeper! 👇
https://t.co/FwP84Ap10k
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$AMZN Amazon's quarter:
☁️ AWS market share update.
📊 Ads and Prime momentum.
🤖 AI revenue growing triple-digit.
Dive deeper! 👇
https://t.co/FwP84Ap10k
tweet
Offshore
Video
Librarian Capital
RT @ProjectLincoln: Your dad's Republican party is dead. Trump and his cronies are dragging its corpse along the campaign trail in hopes the American people won't know the difference, but we do. These aren't real Republicans, they are fascist thugs. Vote for sanity. Vote for Kamala Harris. https://t.co/zMwd7kGw6K
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RT @ProjectLincoln: Your dad's Republican party is dead. Trump and his cronies are dragging its corpse along the campaign trail in hopes the American people won't know the difference, but we do. These aren't real Republicans, they are fascist thugs. Vote for sanity. Vote for Kamala Harris. https://t.co/zMwd7kGw6K
tweet