⁠Alex Bilzerian
RT @mikeharrisNY: New S@bst@ck article: Negative probability: Does it exist? Link in bio. 👇 https://t.co/TvNE6cKI41
tweet

⁠Alex Bilzerian
Bullshit trading? https://t.co/OXHG7yKnAI
tweet

⁠Ahmad Jivraj
This is the Burger King New Location Strategy at work.

What's the BK strategy, you ask?
They let $MCD McDonald’s spend a bunch of money on new location market research, to figure out where they should build their next location. Burger King on the other hand simply pays close attention to where McDonald’s is putting up locations and then buys property nearby.

Launch is to YC...what Burger King is to Mcdonalds

Launch is simply accepting YC applications.
Zero cost but significantly improves their top of funnel.

Good for Founders.
Good for Launch.

Win-Win

If you send your YC application and/or rejection to yc@launch.co, my team will meet with you. If you make it to the second round of meetings, I get a deal memo about your vision.... and might invite you to come on the pod or set up a meeting!

yc and launch accept < 1%, so double your chances! - @jason
tweet

⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Pender on GFL Environmental $GFL US

Thesis: GFL’s strategic position in the resilient waste management sector, combined with solid growth potential and buyout offers, makes it a valuable long-term play.

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/ATQwrmFfOP
tweet

⁠Alex Bilzerian
RT @DrBrianKeating: The soothsayers

The game of science is, in principle, without end. He who decides one day that scientific statements do not call for any further test, and that they can be regarded as finally verified, retires from the game.

- Karl Popper
tweet

⁠Alex Bilzerian
RT @alexbilz: Full tape of Ray Dalio "mentoring" Diddy in 2019 https://t.co/D0pzsXsWss

You can't delete tweets, Ray.
https://t.co/adxCpuEp75 https://t.co/B56pNNijch - Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator.
tweet

⁠Alex Bilzerian
‘The chess players’ (1876) - Thomas Eakins https://t.co/a0tJaJOvX4
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment”

Since then, $GOOG is up +13% ✅ … is $GOOG STILL A BUY? 👇🏽
___

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS to be:

2024E: $7.64 (31.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (13.8% YoY)
2026E: $10.03 (15.4% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.03 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~15.3% CAGR

22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~13.0% CAGR

21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~10.7% CAGR

20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~8.4% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume >21 earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean, albeit with a bit less margin of safety compared to last month)

A 21x multiple for $GOOG is not unreasonable, let alone 22x - 23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Today at $169💵 $GOOG still appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing $GOOGL"

A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.63x
•10-Year Mean: 24.56x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.59%
•10-Year Mean: 4.34%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~31% MORE in earnings per share & ~6% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.88B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.9%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 30.9%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~31% MORE in EPS & ~16% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.32%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.63 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (14.0% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~20.5% CAGR

22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~18.3% CAGR

21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~16.0% CAGR

20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~13.6% CAGR

19x P/E: $189.43💵 … ~11.2% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >19x earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At >20x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒�[...]

�𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet

⁠Alex Bilzerian
What a gift Professor Burgin left for the world.

'Extended Probabilities: Mathematical Foundations' - the late Mark Burgin: https://t.co/pHYrEKvxQ6 - Alex Bilzerian
tweet