Offshore
Photo
Ahmad Jivraj
tech pricing = deflationary
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tech pricing = deflationary
If you add the current 4o-mini pricing to the chart, the drop in token pricing is 99.7% over last 18 months!
For everyone nervous about the real-time audio pricing being ~$120 / 1m tokens, take comfort in the below chart. This price will undoubtedly come down significantly! https://t.co/gmti8XHVHu tweet
Librarian Capital
Elon Musk made Jack Dorsey a secret promise at the Twitter buyout to get Dorsey to roll his 2.4% stake
Musk promised to buy Dorsey out at the takeover price of $54.20 if Dorsey were to need it
With Twitter valuation now down ~80%, would Musk fulfill his promise at some point?
- Yes
- No
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Elon Musk made Jack Dorsey a secret promise at the Twitter buyout to get Dorsey to roll his 2.4% stake
Musk promised to buy Dorsey out at the takeover price of $54.20 if Dorsey were to need it
With Twitter valuation now down ~80%, would Musk fulfill his promise at some point?
- Yes
- No
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Offshore
Photo
Alex Bilzerian
RT @mikeharrisNY: New S@bst@ck article: Negative probability: Does it exist? Link in bio. 👇 https://t.co/TvNE6cKI41
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RT @mikeharrisNY: New S@bst@ck article: Negative probability: Does it exist? Link in bio. 👇 https://t.co/TvNE6cKI41
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Ahmad Jivraj
This is the Burger King New Location Strategy at work.
What's the BK strategy, you ask?
They let $MCD McDonald’s spend a bunch of money on new location market research, to figure out where they should build their next location. Burger King on the other hand simply pays close attention to where McDonald’s is putting up locations and then buys property nearby.
Launch is to YC...what Burger King is to Mcdonalds
Launch is simply accepting YC applications.
Zero cost but significantly improves their top of funnel.
Good for Founders.
Good for Launch.
Win-Win
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This is the Burger King New Location Strategy at work.
What's the BK strategy, you ask?
They let $MCD McDonald’s spend a bunch of money on new location market research, to figure out where they should build their next location. Burger King on the other hand simply pays close attention to where McDonald’s is putting up locations and then buys property nearby.
Launch is to YC...what Burger King is to Mcdonalds
Launch is simply accepting YC applications.
Zero cost but significantly improves their top of funnel.
Good for Founders.
Good for Launch.
Win-Win
If you send your YC application and/or rejection to yc@launch.co, my team will meet with you. If you make it to the second round of meetings, I get a deal memo about your vision.... and might invite you to come on the pod or set up a meeting!
yc and launch accept < 1%, so double your chances! tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Pender on GFL Environmental $GFL US
Thesis: GFL’s strategic position in the resilient waste management sector, combined with solid growth potential and buyout offers, makes it a valuable long-term play.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/ATQwrmFfOP
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Pender on GFL Environmental $GFL US
Thesis: GFL’s strategic position in the resilient waste management sector, combined with solid growth potential and buyout offers, makes it a valuable long-term play.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/ATQwrmFfOP
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Alex Bilzerian
RT @DrBrianKeating: The soothsayers
The game of science is, in principle, without end. He who decides one day that scientific statements do not call for any further test, and that they can be regarded as finally verified, retires from the game.
- Karl Popper
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RT @DrBrianKeating: The soothsayers
The game of science is, in principle, without end. He who decides one day that scientific statements do not call for any further test, and that they can be regarded as finally verified, retires from the game.
- Karl Popper
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Alex Bilzerian
RT @alexbilz: Full tape of Ray Dalio "mentoring" Diddy in 2019 https://t.co/D0pzsXsWss
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RT @alexbilz: Full tape of Ray Dalio "mentoring" Diddy in 2019 https://t.co/D0pzsXsWss
You can't delete tweets, Ray.
https://t.co/adxCpuEp75 https://t.co/B56pNNijch tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $GOOG is up +13% ✅ … is $GOOG STILL A BUY? 👇🏽
___
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS to be:
2024E: $7.64 (31.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (13.8% YoY)
2026E: $10.03 (15.4% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.03 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~15.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~8.4% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume >21 earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean, albeit with a bit less margin of safety compared to last month)
A 21x multiple for $GOOG is not unreasonable, let alone 22x - 23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $169💵 $GOOG still appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL"
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.63x
•10-Year Mean: 24.56x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.59%
•10-Year Mean: 4.34%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~31% MORE in earnings per share & ~6% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 30.9%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~31% MORE in EPS & ~16% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.32%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.63 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (14.0% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~20.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~18.3% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $189.43💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >19x earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >20x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒�[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $GOOG is up +13% ✅ … is $GOOG STILL A BUY? 👇🏽
___
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS to be:
2024E: $7.64 (31.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (13.8% YoY)
2026E: $10.03 (15.4% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.03 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~15.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~8.4% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume >21 earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean, albeit with a bit less margin of safety compared to last month)
A 21x multiple for $GOOG is not unreasonable, let alone 22x - 23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $169💵 $GOOG still appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL"
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.63x
•10-Year Mean: 24.56x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.59%
•10-Year Mean: 4.34%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~31% MORE in earnings per share & ~6% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 30.9%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~31% MORE in EPS & ~16% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.32%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.63 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (14.0% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~20.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~18.3% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $189.43💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >19x earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >20x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒�[...]