Offshore
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Bourbon Capital
Some random guy posted yesterday that $TSLA was going to $10k.
The stock crashed today -8.45%🔴 not even 24 hours later...
Is this a prank? https://t.co/xDPzFnJMdi
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Some random guy posted yesterday that $TSLA was going to $10k.
The stock crashed today -8.45%🔴 not even 24 hours later...
Is this a prank? https://t.co/xDPzFnJMdi
tweet
Offshore
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Quality Investing with Aria
Portfolio Update Sept 6:
Welcome in, its been a little while we've got a couple changes nothing too crazy. The market on the other hand has been nothing short of a roller coaster
For starters, lets address the elephant in the room. After buying and holding $PAYC for a while, yes I'm 100% out of $PAYC and have re-allocated all of it into $GOOGL in two batches at 160 (3/4th's) and 157 (1/4th's).
My current cost basis on $GOOGL is 143 per share (keep in mind I had a good amount of shares at $132 prior to all these buys. My $GOOGL position has risen to around 18% of the portfolio, this represents a roughly 70% increase in the position. I currently view $GOOGL as the most undervalued big tech company and one of the most sure bets in the entire market. I project roughly 18-24% EPS growth for this business in the next few years. I think picking shares up at an @Ethan_invest certified 18x PE. Is a BARGAIN, in the grand scheme of things.
COMPLAINT #1 FOR $GOOGL:
I don't view ChatGPT and AI as an existential crisis in the immediate term. I think we'll see that fire coming towards the moat, miles before it breaches the gate of the castle. More importantly, I think the fact that $GOOGL owns the distribution of search is already more important than having the superior product -- If you don't believe me read up on Netscape from the late 90s and how they got obliterated by $MSFT's Internet Explorer simply because $MSFT had the legacy distribution advantage of Windows. Granted IE later got eradicated off the face of the planet, but nonetheless, the point still stands. Distribution is ultimately the real moat in software / cloud -- Not superior technology. A good enough solution that's readily available, is familiar and already in front of billions of end users will likely fair better in the market than the up and comer with slightly more accurate results 🤷♂️. Maybe I'm naive, who knows
COMPLAINT #2 FOR $GOOGL:
Aria I thought you put the utmost emphasis on FCF and always choose to ignore PE and you hate the PE figure etc etc. Well yes, I do. But! for a business which has sporadic capex cycles, that seriously dampens the FCF number and makes it look particularly unattractive if the comparables where artificially higher from the lack of CapEx in those prior periods. This is highly evident if you look at the roughly late 2016 to 2017 period of $GOOGL's free cash flows (image 2). As you can see we had a multi quarter stagnation and decline in these free cash flows as $GOOGL started dropping BAGS in capex for GCP. And as soon as this excessive capex was back to normal / lower than normal, Free Cash Flow resumed its course. I view P/OCF as a more stable measure of $GOOGL's cash-flow-producing-ability, I think that's a better method to gage $GOOGL valuation at today's prices. The P/OCF metric also showcases the undervaluation at this current time.
One last thing before we move on here, If you would look at image 3, you can see $GOOGL cash conversion ( FCF divided by OCF) this is a highly underrated metric which I'm glad @finchat_io covers. This better helps illustrate the variance Free Cash Flows depending on the capex cycle $GOOGL is in. As it stands currently slightly above historical levels and was much higher in recent quarters. This combined with the one time tax issue they had in Q4 has dampened their FCF. I expect a normalized FCF figure in the mid $70bn, had none of this happened. That puts them at a much more favourable valuation even on a FCF basis.
PORTFOLIO GOALS FOR THE FUTURE:
Anyways enough raving about $GOOGL weird FCF figures. What about my portfolio? Earlier today I gave my brief thoughts. All 6 if my holdings are at attractive valuations in my portfolio. I think $MA is probably the only one at fair value / slight premium.
[...]
Portfolio Update Sept 6:
Welcome in, its been a little while we've got a couple changes nothing too crazy. The market on the other hand has been nothing short of a roller coaster
For starters, lets address the elephant in the room. After buying and holding $PAYC for a while, yes I'm 100% out of $PAYC and have re-allocated all of it into $GOOGL in two batches at 160 (3/4th's) and 157 (1/4th's).
My current cost basis on $GOOGL is 143 per share (keep in mind I had a good amount of shares at $132 prior to all these buys. My $GOOGL position has risen to around 18% of the portfolio, this represents a roughly 70% increase in the position. I currently view $GOOGL as the most undervalued big tech company and one of the most sure bets in the entire market. I project roughly 18-24% EPS growth for this business in the next few years. I think picking shares up at an @Ethan_invest certified 18x PE. Is a BARGAIN, in the grand scheme of things.
COMPLAINT #1 FOR $GOOGL:
I don't view ChatGPT and AI as an existential crisis in the immediate term. I think we'll see that fire coming towards the moat, miles before it breaches the gate of the castle. More importantly, I think the fact that $GOOGL owns the distribution of search is already more important than having the superior product -- If you don't believe me read up on Netscape from the late 90s and how they got obliterated by $MSFT's Internet Explorer simply because $MSFT had the legacy distribution advantage of Windows. Granted IE later got eradicated off the face of the planet, but nonetheless, the point still stands. Distribution is ultimately the real moat in software / cloud -- Not superior technology. A good enough solution that's readily available, is familiar and already in front of billions of end users will likely fair better in the market than the up and comer with slightly more accurate results 🤷♂️. Maybe I'm naive, who knows
COMPLAINT #2 FOR $GOOGL:
Aria I thought you put the utmost emphasis on FCF and always choose to ignore PE and you hate the PE figure etc etc. Well yes, I do. But! for a business which has sporadic capex cycles, that seriously dampens the FCF number and makes it look particularly unattractive if the comparables where artificially higher from the lack of CapEx in those prior periods. This is highly evident if you look at the roughly late 2016 to 2017 period of $GOOGL's free cash flows (image 2). As you can see we had a multi quarter stagnation and decline in these free cash flows as $GOOGL started dropping BAGS in capex for GCP. And as soon as this excessive capex was back to normal / lower than normal, Free Cash Flow resumed its course. I view P/OCF as a more stable measure of $GOOGL's cash-flow-producing-ability, I think that's a better method to gage $GOOGL valuation at today's prices. The P/OCF metric also showcases the undervaluation at this current time.
One last thing before we move on here, If you would look at image 3, you can see $GOOGL cash conversion ( FCF divided by OCF) this is a highly underrated metric which I'm glad @finchat_io covers. This better helps illustrate the variance Free Cash Flows depending on the capex cycle $GOOGL is in. As it stands currently slightly above historical levels and was much higher in recent quarters. This combined with the one time tax issue they had in Q4 has dampened their FCF. I expect a normalized FCF figure in the mid $70bn, had none of this happened. That puts them at a much more favourable valuation even on a FCF basis.
PORTFOLIO GOALS FOR THE FUTURE:
Anyways enough raving about $GOOGL weird FCF figures. What about my portfolio? Earlier today I gave my brief thoughts. All 6 if my holdings are at attractive valuations in my portfolio. I think $MA is probably the only one at fair value / slight premium.
[...]
Offshore
Quality Investing with Aria Portfolio Update Sept 6: Welcome in, its been a little while we've got a couple changes nothing too crazy. The market on the other hand has been nothing short of a roller coaster For starters, lets address the elephant in the…
$AMZN and $CRM remain incredibly undervalued. I maintain a $258 Fair Value on $AMZN 2-4 quarters out. A roughly $340 FV on $CRM, again about 2-4 quarters out. I may be wrong idk, but I think both these businesses are incredibly high quality and have lots of growth ahead of them. I'm happy holding each at 35% and 30% respectively.
One last thing on Salesforce, $CRM's pricing power they hold over Fortune 500 Enterprises is something I don't ever see being talked about, they've only increased prices ONCE in their history which was last year. Almost no enterprise will switch over a couple % increase when it will incur multiples more in data migration costs and months of headache from employees and inefficient processes once they do switch. $CRM has a chokehold on corporate America and that is a rock solid moat. I love this holding.
$GOOGL is now my 3rd largest holding at roughly 18%. Pretty simple, if it keeps dropping, ill keep adding. There's a world where I get this closer to 30%. But that's a lot of cash id have to bring in from my job. We'll see.
$MA rock solid, business as usual, trading around with the macro near my cost basis at $430 I think its a good discount to its fair value of around 480-500 ish. Widest moat on earth perhaps?!
$ASML My god its been a brutal couple days for my biggest winner. Down like 20% in a week or some crazy sh*t. Id love to get more of this monopoly supplier of Semis hardware. To catch you up to speed: GREAT COMPANY, GREAT MOAT, FAIR VALUATION. My only issue, 39% of revenues comes from China, this can easily be halved due to some unforeseen regulation by the US or EU. I cant make it a core position and go to sleep at night not knowing what's going to happen with this company. It will likely always stay below 10% of my portfolio, even that is kinda stretching it TBH. I love the actual business though. Its gonna grow sustainably above 10% for the next 2 decades (that's basically guaranteed). And yet it trades at like 30x FWD earnings. Not expensive at all, btw I use earnings for this one because their working capital is super wonky, cash flow timings can swing a lot due to the nature of their (kinda) manufacturing business
$UBER It might be here next week it might not be 🤣Cheap valuation, absurd margin expansion, MASSSSSIVE bottom line growth. Simply executing business as usual will drive mid teens revenue growth. I think the eats business has a much bigger TAM than rides, and is still relatively underpenetrated globally. $UBER has demonstrated strong brand value and benefits from language protocol moat. I like the holding it'll never be above 8-10% of my portfolio. Great CEO I might add, Dara just gets it
CONCLUSION:
The market is sliding I like all 6 of my holdings. Im extremely concentrated and plan to stay that way to outperform the market in the future. Currently I'd like to continue buying $GOOGL as I view it as one of the most sure bets in the market trading at a retailer's valuation. $UBER and $ASML excite me as well, but I'd first have to dump a lot of my portfolio into $GOOGL before i give priority to those two. I think finally I've reached a point in my portfolio after changing investment styles last year. Where I'm happy enough with the current holdings, to the point where I won't have like 8% QoQ turnover. I really do want to hold all these companies for the long term (minus $UBER, again I'm not quite decided on that one).
Happy investing, and don't be afraid that the market is selling off. Checkout FinChat completely for free and get 2 weeks of full functionality using the link in my bio. Cheers😌"
Portfolio Update August 16:
Hello again, not much to talk about this time around so I'll try and keep it short.
First and foremost, new position in $UBER which I've done an hour long video explaining why over on my YouTube (link in bio). Continued adding to $MA which I'm happy about, I'd probably like it to be closer to 15% as I continue to get paid from my job, I will add some capital there as well.[...]
One last thing on Salesforce, $CRM's pricing power they hold over Fortune 500 Enterprises is something I don't ever see being talked about, they've only increased prices ONCE in their history which was last year. Almost no enterprise will switch over a couple % increase when it will incur multiples more in data migration costs and months of headache from employees and inefficient processes once they do switch. $CRM has a chokehold on corporate America and that is a rock solid moat. I love this holding.
$GOOGL is now my 3rd largest holding at roughly 18%. Pretty simple, if it keeps dropping, ill keep adding. There's a world where I get this closer to 30%. But that's a lot of cash id have to bring in from my job. We'll see.
$MA rock solid, business as usual, trading around with the macro near my cost basis at $430 I think its a good discount to its fair value of around 480-500 ish. Widest moat on earth perhaps?!
$ASML My god its been a brutal couple days for my biggest winner. Down like 20% in a week or some crazy sh*t. Id love to get more of this monopoly supplier of Semis hardware. To catch you up to speed: GREAT COMPANY, GREAT MOAT, FAIR VALUATION. My only issue, 39% of revenues comes from China, this can easily be halved due to some unforeseen regulation by the US or EU. I cant make it a core position and go to sleep at night not knowing what's going to happen with this company. It will likely always stay below 10% of my portfolio, even that is kinda stretching it TBH. I love the actual business though. Its gonna grow sustainably above 10% for the next 2 decades (that's basically guaranteed). And yet it trades at like 30x FWD earnings. Not expensive at all, btw I use earnings for this one because their working capital is super wonky, cash flow timings can swing a lot due to the nature of their (kinda) manufacturing business
$UBER It might be here next week it might not be 🤣Cheap valuation, absurd margin expansion, MASSSSSIVE bottom line growth. Simply executing business as usual will drive mid teens revenue growth. I think the eats business has a much bigger TAM than rides, and is still relatively underpenetrated globally. $UBER has demonstrated strong brand value and benefits from language protocol moat. I like the holding it'll never be above 8-10% of my portfolio. Great CEO I might add, Dara just gets it
CONCLUSION:
The market is sliding I like all 6 of my holdings. Im extremely concentrated and plan to stay that way to outperform the market in the future. Currently I'd like to continue buying $GOOGL as I view it as one of the most sure bets in the market trading at a retailer's valuation. $UBER and $ASML excite me as well, but I'd first have to dump a lot of my portfolio into $GOOGL before i give priority to those two. I think finally I've reached a point in my portfolio after changing investment styles last year. Where I'm happy enough with the current holdings, to the point where I won't have like 8% QoQ turnover. I really do want to hold all these companies for the long term (minus $UBER, again I'm not quite decided on that one).
Happy investing, and don't be afraid that the market is selling off. Checkout FinChat completely for free and get 2 weeks of full functionality using the link in my bio. Cheers😌"
Portfolio Update August 16:
Hello again, not much to talk about this time around so I'll try and keep it short.
First and foremost, new position in $UBER which I've done an hour long video explaining why over on my YouTube (link in bio). Continued adding to $MA which I'm happy about, I'd probably like it to be closer to 15% as I continue to get paid from my job, I will add some capital there as well.[...]
Offshore
$AMZN and $CRM remain incredibly undervalued. I maintain a $258 Fair Value on $AMZN 2-4 quarters out. A roughly $340 FV on $CRM, again about 2-4 quarters out. I may be wrong idk, but I think both these businesses are incredibly high quality and have lots of…
$GOOGL has faced some antitrust issues which I believe will be forgotten about by next quarter (24 hour news cycle and what not). I don't view any antitrust suit as a risk factor for any big tech company
$CRM is the last company to report earnings on the 28th. Probably the only earnings I'm actually interested to see out of all my companies.
I missed the boat on $ADYEN. Albeit the valuation is still not horrible for the moat + growth that business is going to generate. I also cannot even purchase the shares off of amsterdam listing because IBKR (my new brokerage) doesn't have international stocks permissions enable for me despite me reaching out a handful of times and requesting it in the app. I can still buy the ADR but after my $EVVTY experience ideally I hold off on that one
The second coming of black monday happened on my birthday (Aug 5). I didn't buy or sell anything but it was very fun to watch nonetheless -- Nothing really came out of it but I was hoping for a bigger dip
CONCLUSION:
All in all, I'm happy with the 7 names I hold. Id like to get $CRM and $AMZN to be <30%"- Quality Investing with Aria
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$CRM is the last company to report earnings on the 28th. Probably the only earnings I'm actually interested to see out of all my companies.
I missed the boat on $ADYEN. Albeit the valuation is still not horrible for the moat + growth that business is going to generate. I also cannot even purchase the shares off of amsterdam listing because IBKR (my new brokerage) doesn't have international stocks permissions enable for me despite me reaching out a handful of times and requesting it in the app. I can still buy the ADR but after my $EVVTY experience ideally I hold off on that one
The second coming of black monday happened on my birthday (Aug 5). I didn't buy or sell anything but it was very fun to watch nonetheless -- Nothing really came out of it but I was hoping for a bigger dip
CONCLUSION:
All in all, I'm happy with the 7 names I hold. Id like to get $CRM and $AMZN to be <30%"- Quality Investing with Aria
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Quality Stocks
Often overlooked, the Belgian index 🇧🇪 BEL-20, has shown resilience this week, dipping only -0.45%
The index's composition helps explain this stability. It includes several heavyweight stocks from defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare)
💉 UCB $UCB
🍺 AB Inbev $ABI
🔬 Argenx $ARGX
🍪 Lotus Bakeries $LOTB
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Often overlooked, the Belgian index 🇧🇪 BEL-20, has shown resilience this week, dipping only -0.45%
The index's composition helps explain this stability. It includes several heavyweight stocks from defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare)
💉 UCB $UCB
🍺 AB Inbev $ABI
🔬 Argenx $ARGX
🍪 Lotus Bakeries $LOTB
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Offshore
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Quality Investing with Aria
I hate ROCE mostly because of how people use it if anything. It makes sense for mature businesses and thats about it.
It rewards asset light businesses that are wildly profitable. And if a company is in stage 3-4 of the business cycle the ROCE metric will miss them. I think it makes sense to buy your Home Depots or $KO of the world. And compare the two.
But saying $AMZN is an inferior company than $AAPL due to the ROCE being off by a factor of 5. Completely misses the point
Influencers who shall not be named have built this culture of ROCE is the most important metric known to man kind. If its under 20% that’s a disgusting narrow moat business and you should burn it right away. Above 50% ?? Take my money right away!
This couldnt be further from the truth. I can safely argue that $CRM is 10x wider moat business than $DPZ. I suggest you search up the ROCE on each, you’ll be shocked 😂
Now to be honest, i dont hate the metric itself. But I hate how its used and where its used, and most importantly by WHO ITS USED.
I hate the notion that:
- High ROCE = Wide moat
- Low ROCE = Zero moat/narrow moat
- And negative ROCE??? Oh boy 💀
Like that couldnt be further from the truth, in many cases yes that can be indicative of wide/narrow moat. But not always!!! Depends how mature the company is
Thats why i pay minimal attention to it, again, unless its a mature business
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I hate ROCE mostly because of how people use it if anything. It makes sense for mature businesses and thats about it.
It rewards asset light businesses that are wildly profitable. And if a company is in stage 3-4 of the business cycle the ROCE metric will miss them. I think it makes sense to buy your Home Depots or $KO of the world. And compare the two.
But saying $AMZN is an inferior company than $AAPL due to the ROCE being off by a factor of 5. Completely misses the point
Influencers who shall not be named have built this culture of ROCE is the most important metric known to man kind. If its under 20% that’s a disgusting narrow moat business and you should burn it right away. Above 50% ?? Take my money right away!
This couldnt be further from the truth. I can safely argue that $CRM is 10x wider moat business than $DPZ. I suggest you search up the ROCE on each, you’ll be shocked 😂
Now to be honest, i dont hate the metric itself. But I hate how its used and where its used, and most importantly by WHO ITS USED.
I hate the notion that:
- High ROCE = Wide moat
- Low ROCE = Zero moat/narrow moat
- And negative ROCE??? Oh boy 💀
Like that couldnt be further from the truth, in many cases yes that can be indicative of wide/narrow moat. But not always!!! Depends how mature the company is
Thats why i pay minimal attention to it, again, unless its a mature business
tweet
Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Troy Equity Income Fund on Admiral $ADM
"We met with the management team"
"The shares are reasonably valued at c. 16x 2025 earnings but can no longer be said to be cheap"
"It remains a high-quality global income asset and a long-term investment in the fund" https://t.co/D98JGVmGhs
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Troy Equity Income Fund on Admiral $ADM
"We met with the management team"
"The shares are reasonably valued at c. 16x 2025 earnings but can no longer be said to be cheap"
"It remains a high-quality global income asset and a long-term investment in the fund" https://t.co/D98JGVmGhs
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