Bourbon Capital
RT @BourbonCap: I love how everything looks perfect on LinkedIn; everyone seems professional, nobody appears corrupt, everyone is smart, and they all seem to know what they're doing. But when you go outside, you see corruption everywhere, nothing gets done, and 90% of the people are just a few hours away from bankruptcy.
People don't know anything. No one really knows what they're doing; they're all just throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks
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RT @BourbonCap: I love how everything looks perfect on LinkedIn; everyone seems professional, nobody appears corrupt, everyone is smart, and they all seem to know what they're doing. But when you go outside, you see corruption everywhere, nothing gets done, and 90% of the people are just a few hours away from bankruptcy.
People don't know anything. No one really knows what they're doing; they're all just throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks
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Offshore
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PitchDeckGuy
$GME jumped after Roaring Kitty made his first tweet in months
Here's their deck https://t.co/MUCkVgntUZ
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$GME jumped after Roaring Kitty made his first tweet in months
Here's their deck https://t.co/MUCkVgntUZ
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Quality Stocks
Big cap healthcare are defensive plays during rough times
Here are 3️⃣1️⃣ healthcare stocks sorted by net profit margin. Any stock you like?
🇺🇸 Vertex $VRTX 36.7%
🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk $NVO 35.1%
🇺🇸 Eli Lilly $LLY 30.1%
🇺🇸 Regeneron $RGEN 29.9%
🇺🇸 Merck&Co $MRK 29.6%
🇺🇸 Zoetis $ZTS 26.9%
🇺🇸 Intuitive Surgical $ISRG 25.4%
🇨🇭 Novartis $NOVN 22.3%
🇺🇸 Johnson&Johnson $JNJ 21.9%
🇨🇭 Roche $ROG $21.5%
🇦🇺 CSL $CSL 19.7%
🇺🇸 Danaher $DHR 17.8%
🇺🇸 Stryker $SYK 16.9%
🇬🇧 AstraZeneca $AZN 16.6%
🇬🇧 GSK $GSK 16.3%
🇺🇸 Abbvie $ABBV 15.9%
🇺🇸 Medtronic $MDT 15.3%
🇺🇸 Thermo Fisher $TMO 14.3%
🇫🇷 Sanofi $SAN 14.1%
🇺🇸 Abbott $ABT 13.9%
🇺🇸 Boston Sc. $BSX 12.8%
🇺🇸 Pfizer $PFE 10.8%
🇺🇸 Amgen $AMGN 10.5%
🇫🇷 EssilorLuxoticca $EL 10.5%
🇺🇸 Becton Dickison $BDX 9.9%
🇺🇸 HCA Healthcare $HCA 8.4%
🇺🇸 Unitedhealth $UNH 6.0%
🇺🇸 Elevance Health $ELV 4.7%
🇺🇸 Cigna $CI 2.1%
🇺🇸 CVS $CVS 1.8%
🇺🇸 Bristol Myers $BMY -7.0%
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Big cap healthcare are defensive plays during rough times
Here are 3️⃣1️⃣ healthcare stocks sorted by net profit margin. Any stock you like?
🇺🇸 Vertex $VRTX 36.7%
🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk $NVO 35.1%
🇺🇸 Eli Lilly $LLY 30.1%
🇺🇸 Regeneron $RGEN 29.9%
🇺🇸 Merck&Co $MRK 29.6%
🇺🇸 Zoetis $ZTS 26.9%
🇺🇸 Intuitive Surgical $ISRG 25.4%
🇨🇭 Novartis $NOVN 22.3%
🇺🇸 Johnson&Johnson $JNJ 21.9%
🇨🇭 Roche $ROG $21.5%
🇦🇺 CSL $CSL 19.7%
🇺🇸 Danaher $DHR 17.8%
🇺🇸 Stryker $SYK 16.9%
🇬🇧 AstraZeneca $AZN 16.6%
🇬🇧 GSK $GSK 16.3%
🇺🇸 Abbvie $ABBV 15.9%
🇺🇸 Medtronic $MDT 15.3%
🇺🇸 Thermo Fisher $TMO 14.3%
🇫🇷 Sanofi $SAN 14.1%
🇺🇸 Abbott $ABT 13.9%
🇺🇸 Boston Sc. $BSX 12.8%
🇺🇸 Pfizer $PFE 10.8%
🇺🇸 Amgen $AMGN 10.5%
🇫🇷 EssilorLuxoticca $EL 10.5%
🇺🇸 Becton Dickison $BDX 9.9%
🇺🇸 HCA Healthcare $HCA 8.4%
🇺🇸 Unitedhealth $UNH 6.0%
🇺🇸 Elevance Health $ELV 4.7%
🇺🇸 Cigna $CI 2.1%
🇺🇸 CVS $CVS 1.8%
🇺🇸 Bristol Myers $BMY -7.0%
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
PureCycle $PCT down another 11% today
Now down ~60% since the exchange below in Oct-22
Information is everywhere, but not everyone is right
Picking the right account(s) to follow creates alpha https://t.co/kbOra2qHBN
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PureCycle $PCT down another 11% today
Now down ~60% since the exchange below in Oct-22
Information is everywhere, but not everyone is right
Picking the right account(s) to follow creates alpha https://t.co/kbOra2qHBN
It was this tweet which made me decide to reveal my thesis.
He told the world that I was just a troll.
I am a troll. I objected to "just".
$PCT tweet
Offshore
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Bourbon Capital
Congratulations, everyone! We have survived the first week:
ASML Holding $ASML -16%🔴
GOOG $GOOG -7%🔴
Visa Inc. $V +1.49%🟢
PepsiCo, Inc. $PEP +3.05%🟢
UnitedHealth Group $UNH +1.29%🟢
Ulta Beauty $ULTA 2.27% 🟢 https://t.co/3VKBdbXrhq
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Congratulations, everyone! We have survived the first week:
ASML Holding $ASML -16%🔴
GOOG $GOOG -7%🔴
Visa Inc. $V +1.49%🟢
PepsiCo, Inc. $PEP +3.05%🟢
UnitedHealth Group $UNH +1.29%🟢
Ulta Beauty $ULTA 2.27% 🟢 https://t.co/3VKBdbXrhq
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Offshore
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Bourbon Capital
Some random guy posted yesterday that $TSLA was going to $10k.
The stock crashed today -8.45%🔴 not even 24 hours later...
Is this a prank? https://t.co/xDPzFnJMdi
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Some random guy posted yesterday that $TSLA was going to $10k.
The stock crashed today -8.45%🔴 not even 24 hours later...
Is this a prank? https://t.co/xDPzFnJMdi
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Offshore
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Quality Investing with Aria
Portfolio Update Sept 6:
Welcome in, its been a little while we've got a couple changes nothing too crazy. The market on the other hand has been nothing short of a roller coaster
For starters, lets address the elephant in the room. After buying and holding $PAYC for a while, yes I'm 100% out of $PAYC and have re-allocated all of it into $GOOGL in two batches at 160 (3/4th's) and 157 (1/4th's).
My current cost basis on $GOOGL is 143 per share (keep in mind I had a good amount of shares at $132 prior to all these buys. My $GOOGL position has risen to around 18% of the portfolio, this represents a roughly 70% increase in the position. I currently view $GOOGL as the most undervalued big tech company and one of the most sure bets in the entire market. I project roughly 18-24% EPS growth for this business in the next few years. I think picking shares up at an @Ethan_invest certified 18x PE. Is a BARGAIN, in the grand scheme of things.
COMPLAINT #1 FOR $GOOGL:
I don't view ChatGPT and AI as an existential crisis in the immediate term. I think we'll see that fire coming towards the moat, miles before it breaches the gate of the castle. More importantly, I think the fact that $GOOGL owns the distribution of search is already more important than having the superior product -- If you don't believe me read up on Netscape from the late 90s and how they got obliterated by $MSFT's Internet Explorer simply because $MSFT had the legacy distribution advantage of Windows. Granted IE later got eradicated off the face of the planet, but nonetheless, the point still stands. Distribution is ultimately the real moat in software / cloud -- Not superior technology. A good enough solution that's readily available, is familiar and already in front of billions of end users will likely fair better in the market than the up and comer with slightly more accurate results 🤷♂️. Maybe I'm naive, who knows
COMPLAINT #2 FOR $GOOGL:
Aria I thought you put the utmost emphasis on FCF and always choose to ignore PE and you hate the PE figure etc etc. Well yes, I do. But! for a business which has sporadic capex cycles, that seriously dampens the FCF number and makes it look particularly unattractive if the comparables where artificially higher from the lack of CapEx in those prior periods. This is highly evident if you look at the roughly late 2016 to 2017 period of $GOOGL's free cash flows (image 2). As you can see we had a multi quarter stagnation and decline in these free cash flows as $GOOGL started dropping BAGS in capex for GCP. And as soon as this excessive capex was back to normal / lower than normal, Free Cash Flow resumed its course. I view P/OCF as a more stable measure of $GOOGL's cash-flow-producing-ability, I think that's a better method to gage $GOOGL valuation at today's prices. The P/OCF metric also showcases the undervaluation at this current time.
One last thing before we move on here, If you would look at image 3, you can see $GOOGL cash conversion ( FCF divided by OCF) this is a highly underrated metric which I'm glad @finchat_io covers. This better helps illustrate the variance Free Cash Flows depending on the capex cycle $GOOGL is in. As it stands currently slightly above historical levels and was much higher in recent quarters. This combined with the one time tax issue they had in Q4 has dampened their FCF. I expect a normalized FCF figure in the mid $70bn, had none of this happened. That puts them at a much more favourable valuation even on a FCF basis.
PORTFOLIO GOALS FOR THE FUTURE:
Anyways enough raving about $GOOGL weird FCF figures. What about my portfolio? Earlier today I gave my brief thoughts. All 6 if my holdings are at attractive valuations in my portfolio. I think $MA is probably the only one at fair value / slight premium.
[...]
Portfolio Update Sept 6:
Welcome in, its been a little while we've got a couple changes nothing too crazy. The market on the other hand has been nothing short of a roller coaster
For starters, lets address the elephant in the room. After buying and holding $PAYC for a while, yes I'm 100% out of $PAYC and have re-allocated all of it into $GOOGL in two batches at 160 (3/4th's) and 157 (1/4th's).
My current cost basis on $GOOGL is 143 per share (keep in mind I had a good amount of shares at $132 prior to all these buys. My $GOOGL position has risen to around 18% of the portfolio, this represents a roughly 70% increase in the position. I currently view $GOOGL as the most undervalued big tech company and one of the most sure bets in the entire market. I project roughly 18-24% EPS growth for this business in the next few years. I think picking shares up at an @Ethan_invest certified 18x PE. Is a BARGAIN, in the grand scheme of things.
COMPLAINT #1 FOR $GOOGL:
I don't view ChatGPT and AI as an existential crisis in the immediate term. I think we'll see that fire coming towards the moat, miles before it breaches the gate of the castle. More importantly, I think the fact that $GOOGL owns the distribution of search is already more important than having the superior product -- If you don't believe me read up on Netscape from the late 90s and how they got obliterated by $MSFT's Internet Explorer simply because $MSFT had the legacy distribution advantage of Windows. Granted IE later got eradicated off the face of the planet, but nonetheless, the point still stands. Distribution is ultimately the real moat in software / cloud -- Not superior technology. A good enough solution that's readily available, is familiar and already in front of billions of end users will likely fair better in the market than the up and comer with slightly more accurate results 🤷♂️. Maybe I'm naive, who knows
COMPLAINT #2 FOR $GOOGL:
Aria I thought you put the utmost emphasis on FCF and always choose to ignore PE and you hate the PE figure etc etc. Well yes, I do. But! for a business which has sporadic capex cycles, that seriously dampens the FCF number and makes it look particularly unattractive if the comparables where artificially higher from the lack of CapEx in those prior periods. This is highly evident if you look at the roughly late 2016 to 2017 period of $GOOGL's free cash flows (image 2). As you can see we had a multi quarter stagnation and decline in these free cash flows as $GOOGL started dropping BAGS in capex for GCP. And as soon as this excessive capex was back to normal / lower than normal, Free Cash Flow resumed its course. I view P/OCF as a more stable measure of $GOOGL's cash-flow-producing-ability, I think that's a better method to gage $GOOGL valuation at today's prices. The P/OCF metric also showcases the undervaluation at this current time.
One last thing before we move on here, If you would look at image 3, you can see $GOOGL cash conversion ( FCF divided by OCF) this is a highly underrated metric which I'm glad @finchat_io covers. This better helps illustrate the variance Free Cash Flows depending on the capex cycle $GOOGL is in. As it stands currently slightly above historical levels and was much higher in recent quarters. This combined with the one time tax issue they had in Q4 has dampened their FCF. I expect a normalized FCF figure in the mid $70bn, had none of this happened. That puts them at a much more favourable valuation even on a FCF basis.
PORTFOLIO GOALS FOR THE FUTURE:
Anyways enough raving about $GOOGL weird FCF figures. What about my portfolio? Earlier today I gave my brief thoughts. All 6 if my holdings are at attractive valuations in my portfolio. I think $MA is probably the only one at fair value / slight premium.
[...]