Offshore
Photo
Quality Investing with Aria
$ULTA beauty is trading at a DISGUSTINGLY CHEAP valuation 🤯
Here’s 6 reasons why you should consider this beauty retailer after it’s MASSIVE fall from grace 👇
(A THREAD 🧵) https://t.co/bZE7hkWcIA
tweet
$ULTA beauty is trading at a DISGUSTINGLY CHEAP valuation 🤯
Here’s 6 reasons why you should consider this beauty retailer after it’s MASSIVE fall from grace 👇
(A THREAD 🧵) https://t.co/bZE7hkWcIA
tweet
Offshore
Photo
PitchDeckGuy
23andMe was worth $6B - now it trades for pennies
Here’s their deck: https://t.co/HubU7h6hzJ
tweet
23andMe was worth $6B - now it trades for pennies
Here’s their deck: https://t.co/HubU7h6hzJ
tweet
Bourbon Capital
$META VS $LULU
Meta Platforms, Inc. $META
FCF Growth 5y: 22.54%
EPS Growth 5y: 26.96%
CARG 10y: 21.04%
Net income Growth 5y: 24.69%
Gross Margin: 81%
EPS: 59% YoY
Revenue: 22% YoY
Lululemon Athletica Inc. $LULU:
FCF Growth 5y: 40.97%
EPS Growth 5y: 26.13%
CAGR 10y: 20.50%
Net income Growth 5y: 25%
Gross Margin: 58%
EPS: 17% YoY
Revenue: 7.33% YoY
$META its up 75% since 2023
$LULU its down 55% since 2023
It may take time, but it's unusual to feel comfortable holding an oversold stock.
$LULU is oversold
tweet
$META VS $LULU
Meta Platforms, Inc. $META
FCF Growth 5y: 22.54%
EPS Growth 5y: 26.96%
CARG 10y: 21.04%
Net income Growth 5y: 24.69%
Gross Margin: 81%
EPS: 59% YoY
Revenue: 22% YoY
Lululemon Athletica Inc. $LULU:
FCF Growth 5y: 40.97%
EPS Growth 5y: 26.13%
CAGR 10y: 20.50%
Net income Growth 5y: 25%
Gross Margin: 58%
EPS: 17% YoY
Revenue: 7.33% YoY
$META its up 75% since 2023
$LULU its down 55% since 2023
It may take time, but it's unusual to feel comfortable holding an oversold stock.
$LULU is oversold
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
These are two of the most poorly-timed congressional stock trades ever.
Senator Thomas Carper bought Innodata stock when it was trading at $15.
He sold in March, after it fell to $6.
It has risen 163% since then, and is now trading at $17. https://t.co/lD5zANCIcu
tweet
These are two of the most poorly-timed congressional stock trades ever.
Senator Thomas Carper bought Innodata stock when it was trading at $15.
He sold in March, after it fell to $6.
It has risen 163% since then, and is now trading at $17. https://t.co/lD5zANCIcu
tweet
Bourbon Capital
Oversold stocks:
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. $HIMS
Occidental Petroleum Corporation $OXY
Lululemon Athletica Inc. $LULU
Ulta Beauty, Inc. $ULTA
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. $ELF
PepsiCo, Inc. $PEP
Celsius Holdings, Inc. $CELH
Monster Beverage Corporation $MNST
Comcast Corporation $CMCSA
PDD Holdings Inc. $PDD
BP plc $BP
tweet
Oversold stocks:
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. $HIMS
Occidental Petroleum Corporation $OXY
Lululemon Athletica Inc. $LULU
Ulta Beauty, Inc. $ULTA
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. $ELF
PepsiCo, Inc. $PEP
Celsius Holdings, Inc. $CELH
Monster Beverage Corporation $MNST
Comcast Corporation $CMCSA
PDD Holdings Inc. $PDD
BP plc $BP
tweet
Bourbon Capital
If you want to know how to fundamentally analyze a stock, keep these key factors in mind:
- Positive revenue growth
- EPS growth
- Low Debt-to-Equity ratio
- Positive PE ratios
- High Free Cash Flow
- Gross and Net profits
- Positive ROE
- Dividend yield
Which method or criteria do you usually use?
$SPY #nasdaq
tweet
If you want to know how to fundamentally analyze a stock, keep these key factors in mind:
- Positive revenue growth
- EPS growth
- Low Debt-to-Equity ratio
- Positive PE ratios
- High Free Cash Flow
- Gross and Net profits
- Positive ROE
- Dividend yield
Which method or criteria do you usually use?
$SPY #nasdaq
tweet
Quality Stocks
1️⃣4️⃣ quality stocks trading at reasonable PE (under 23x)
Of course a lot of other metrics are necessary!
🇹🇼 TSMC $TSM 22.5x
🇫🇷 LVMH $MC 22.5x
🇺🇸 Pepsico $PEP 22.0x
🇺🇸 Booking $BKNG 21.9x
🇺🇸 Alphabet $GOOGL 21.4x
🇺🇸 Lockheed Martin $LMT 21.4x
🇺🇸 Johnson&Jonhson $JNJ 21.0x
🇺🇸 Paycom $PAYC 19.7x
🇺🇸 American Express $AXP 19.1x
🇨🇦 Lululemon $LULU 18.6x
🇺🇸 Paypal $PYPL 18.4x
🇸🇪 Evolution $EVO 17.8x
🇺🇸 Merck&Co $MRK 15.6x
🇫🇷 GTT $GTT 15.5x
tweet
1️⃣4️⃣ quality stocks trading at reasonable PE (under 23x)
Of course a lot of other metrics are necessary!
🇹🇼 TSMC $TSM 22.5x
🇫🇷 LVMH $MC 22.5x
🇺🇸 Pepsico $PEP 22.0x
🇺🇸 Booking $BKNG 21.9x
🇺🇸 Alphabet $GOOGL 21.4x
🇺🇸 Lockheed Martin $LMT 21.4x
🇺🇸 Johnson&Jonhson $JNJ 21.0x
🇺🇸 Paycom $PAYC 19.7x
🇺🇸 American Express $AXP 19.1x
🇨🇦 Lululemon $LULU 18.6x
🇺🇸 Paypal $PYPL 18.4x
🇸🇪 Evolution $EVO 17.8x
🇺🇸 Merck&Co $MRK 15.6x
🇫🇷 GTT $GTT 15.5x
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Badmouthing AI and now going to attribute RIF to it! Sneaky bastards...
tweet
Badmouthing AI and now going to attribute RIF to it! Sneaky bastards...
GOLDMAN SACHS TO LAY OFF OVER 1,300 WORKERS: WSJ - First Squawktweet
Librarian Capital
"Cocoa Deficit to Be Deeper Than Prior Estimates, ICCO Says" (Bloomberg)
"New York futures are up around 80% this year ... though prices have pared back from record highs"
cc: $HSY
tweet
"Cocoa Deficit to Be Deeper Than Prior Estimates, ICCO Says" (Bloomberg)
"New York futures are up around 80% this year ... though prices have pared back from record highs"
cc: $HSY
Cocoa’s shortage is set to deepen further this season amid persistent production challenges from poor weather and disease https://t.co/Q3g2DMRUNL tweet
twitter.com
undefined
undefined
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
One month ago I shared my analysis on $MA, suggesting it was a strong consideration for investment at $429💵
Since then, $MA share price increased +12.5% ✅ … as I stated towards the end of my analysis:
“… let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
31x P/E: $599.23💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $579.90💵 … ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $560.57💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $541.24💵 … ~10.6% CAGR As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)
Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $MA 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.16x
•10-Year Mean: 31.32x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.48%
•10-Year Mean: 3.41%
As you can see, $MA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MA is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $7.66B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.54B
$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 19.79x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 62.9%
•2020: 40.6%
•2021: 45.7%
•2022: 58.5%
•2023: 61.1%
•LTM: 64.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 141.4%
•2020: 102.5%
•2021: 124.7%
•2022: 144.0%
•2023: 167.4%
•LTM: 186.3%
$MA has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $8.31B
•2023: $25.10B
•CAGR: 11.68%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $3.98B
•2023: $11.61B
•CAGR: 11.30%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.61
•2023: $12.26
•CAGR: 16.73%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.29
•2023: $2.37
•CAGR: 23.37%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.21B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 939M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.4%, $MA increased its EPS by ~28.8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 46.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 14.58% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (14.58%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.27 (16.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $16.57 (16.1% YoY)
2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)
$MA has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
31x P/E: $599.23💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $579.90💵 … ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $560.57💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $541.24💵 … ~10.6% CAGR
As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)
Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration [...]
One month ago I shared my analysis on $MA, suggesting it was a strong consideration for investment at $429💵
Since then, $MA share price increased +12.5% ✅ … as I stated towards the end of my analysis:
“… let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
31x P/E: $599.23💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $579.90💵 … ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $560.57💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $541.24💵 … ~10.6% CAGR As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)
Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $MA 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.16x
•10-Year Mean: 31.32x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.48%
•10-Year Mean: 3.41%
As you can see, $MA appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MA is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $7.66B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.54B
$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 19.79x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 62.9%
•2020: 40.6%
•2021: 45.7%
•2022: 58.5%
•2023: 61.1%
•LTM: 64.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 141.4%
•2020: 102.5%
•2021: 124.7%
•2022: 144.0%
•2023: 167.4%
•LTM: 186.3%
$MA has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $8.31B
•2023: $25.10B
•CAGR: 11.68%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $3.98B
•2023: $11.61B
•CAGR: 11.30%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.61
•2023: $12.26
•CAGR: 16.73%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.29
•2023: $2.37
•CAGR: 23.37%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.21B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 939M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.4%, $MA increased its EPS by ~28.8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 46.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 14.58% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (14.58%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.27 (16.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $16.57 (16.1% YoY)
2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)
$MA has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
31x P/E: $599.23💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $579.90💵 … ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $560.57💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $541.24💵 … ~10.6% CAGR
As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)
$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)
Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration [...]