⁠Invest In Assets 📈
Paycom Software $PAYC trades at 19.5 times forward PE
ROIC 5Y is 8.5%
Operating margin is 32.8%
Long-term EPS growth expectations is +10.6%

Is Paycom attractive at the current price? https://t.co/YapQjZa1Bf
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⁠Lumida Wealth Management
Government AI: Race for Securing National Intelligence
@Bloomberg @nvidia 

Governments worldwide are investing billions in AI infrastructure to secure their national intelligence. Discover how digital knowledge is becoming a nation's greatest resource! #AI #nvidia  
@ramahluwalia
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⁠Librarian Capital
Parallels in reaction to Nvidia $NVDA results overnight and the same to Cisco $CSCO results in a prior cycle

"That was the top"

Nvidia again had fabulous results and is trading down pre market.

The results in February were also fabulous, and the stock traded down in the morning.

It finished up.

Cisco, back in the day, had fabulous results, traded down and stayed down.

That was the top. Not just for Cisco, but the entire market. - John_Hempton
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⁠Lumida Wealth Management
1/ Daily News Round-Up:

- Nvidia’s data center revenue surged 150% YoY, hitting $26.3B.
- Google plans its first data center in Vietnam, targeting the booming digital economy.
- Nvidia’s revenue guidance misses expectations, causing investor concern.
- Lululemon set to announce earnings, with a 25% revenue boost anticipated.
- Crypto market cap jumped 50% in 2023, reaching $1.5T.
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⁠Lumida Wealth Management
Future of AI: Train Big, Run Small, Deploy Locally
@ramahluwalia 

Jensen Huang, CEO of @nvidia tells the evolving landscape of AI training and deployment. https://t.co/nBmVa2s6wN
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⁠Lumida Wealth Management
"The Question is not whether the earnings will be good. Its about HOW good." - Bloomberg

Despite an EPS beat of 6.2%, Revenue beat of 4.5%, 122.4% (YoY) increase in Total revenue and a raised guidance $NVDA stock is down 2%

Read more: https://t.co/eOw2nuQt8i

@nvidia #nvidia
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⁠Invest In Assets 📈
Forecasting is generally a waste of time: https://t.co/iORrhEVJ9A
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⁠Lumida Wealth Management
Is #NVIDIA Becoming a Cloud Provider?

Did you know $NVDA's cloud is built within #Google, #Azure, and #AWS? Find out how this unique approach is revolutionizing AI and tech industries. 

@Bloomberg @nvidia @ramahluwalia https://t.co/n8tRVmalUr
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ODFL 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 32.58x
•5-Year Mean: 29.39x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.24%
•5-Year Mean: 2.42%

As you can see, $ODFL appears to be trading slightly above fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~10% LESS in earnings per share & ~7% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ODFL is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Total Inv: $104.58M
•Long-Term Debt: $39.98M

$ODFL has a strong balance sheet & 4,891x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.7%
•2020: 24.2%
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 44.2%
•2023: 34.0%
•LTM: 36.9%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 21.0%
•2021: 29.5%
•2022: 37.6%
•2023: 31.3%
•LTM: 32.1%

$ODFL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $2.34B
•2023: $5.87B
•CAGR: 9.63%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $55.06M
•2023: $812.83M
•CAGR: 25.00%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.80
•2023: $5.63
•CAGR: 21.54%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2018: $0.18
•2023: $0.80
•CAGR: 34.76%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 258.49M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 218.83M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~15.3%, $ODFL increased its EPS by ~18.0% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 40.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 21.4%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% LESS in EPS & ~7% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ODFL has to grow earnings at a 16.29% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (16.29%) required growth rate:

2024E: $5.70 (1.2% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $6.67 (16.8% YoY)
2026E: $7.57 (13.6% YoY)

$ODFL has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ODFL ends 2026 with $7.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $227.10💵 … ~7.5% CAGR

29x P/E: $219.55💵 … ~6.0% CAGR

28x P/E: $211.96💵 … ~4.4% CAGR

As you can see, for $ODFL to have attractive return potential we’d have to assume a higher multiple & / or for growth rate to exceed expectations

Today, at $194💵 you’re getting a fair deal for an excellent business but without a margin of safety

However…

There’s a lot of value that emanates from owning $ODFL for their land ownership. The value of the land on the balance sheet increased at an 11.80% CAGR last 10 years ($990.36M ➡️ $3.19B)

And land is typically recorded at its historical cost, which is the ORIGINAL purchase price. This means that the value of the land is not adjusted to reflect its current market value, even if it has appreciated significantly over time…

Something to keep in mind when analyzing $ODFL quality, among other things

I’d be interested in $ODFL closer to $175💵 we can reasonably expect a CAGR of ~9.1% while assuming a 28x multiple

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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