Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Royal London AM on Shaftesbury Capital $SHB LN
Thesis: Shaftesbury Capital's prime London portfolio and post-COVID recovery potential make it a compelling investment at a discount to asset value
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/m9Hl1iLwRR
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Royal London AM on Shaftesbury Capital $SHB LN
Thesis: Shaftesbury Capital's prime London portfolio and post-COVID recovery potential make it a compelling investment at a discount to asset value
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/m9Hl1iLwRR
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โ Quality Stocks
1๏ธโฃ9๏ธโฃ boring stock sorted by their net profit margin
What are your favorite boring businesses?
๐บ๐ธ Eagle Materials $EXP 22.3%
๐จ๐ญ Geberit $GEBN 19.5%
๐บ๐ธ Cintas $CTAS 16.7%
๐บ๐ธ Autozone $AZO 14.6%
๐บ๐ธ Rollins $ROL 14.5%
๐บ๐ธ O'Reilley $ORLY 14.4%
๐ฌ๐ง Ashtead $AHT 14.1%
๐บ๐ธ Waste Mgt $WM 13.1%
๐บ๐ธ Service Corp $SCI 12.4%
๐จ๐ฆ Waste Connections $WCN 12.3%
๐บ๐ธ Republic Services $RSG 12.0%
๐บ๐ธ Sherwin-Williams $SHW 11.7%
๐ฎ๐ช CRH $CRH 10.3%
๐บ๐ธ RPM Int. $RPM 9.4%
๐บ๐ธ Clean Harbors $CLH 7.0%
๐ต๐ฑ Auto-Partner $APR 6.3%
๐ซ๐ท Veolia $VIE 2.9%
๐บ๐ธ The GEO Group $GEO 2.5%
๐บ๐ธ Corecivic $CXW 2.4%
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1๏ธโฃ9๏ธโฃ boring stock sorted by their net profit margin
What are your favorite boring businesses?
๐บ๐ธ Eagle Materials $EXP 22.3%
๐จ๐ญ Geberit $GEBN 19.5%
๐บ๐ธ Cintas $CTAS 16.7%
๐บ๐ธ Autozone $AZO 14.6%
๐บ๐ธ Rollins $ROL 14.5%
๐บ๐ธ O'Reilley $ORLY 14.4%
๐ฌ๐ง Ashtead $AHT 14.1%
๐บ๐ธ Waste Mgt $WM 13.1%
๐บ๐ธ Service Corp $SCI 12.4%
๐จ๐ฆ Waste Connections $WCN 12.3%
๐บ๐ธ Republic Services $RSG 12.0%
๐บ๐ธ Sherwin-Williams $SHW 11.7%
๐ฎ๐ช CRH $CRH 10.3%
๐บ๐ธ RPM Int. $RPM 9.4%
๐บ๐ธ Clean Harbors $CLH 7.0%
๐ต๐ฑ Auto-Partner $APR 6.3%
๐ซ๐ท Veolia $VIE 2.9%
๐บ๐ธ The GEO Group $GEO 2.5%
๐บ๐ธ Corecivic $CXW 2.4%
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โ Bourbon Capital
PDD Holdings Inc. $PDD missed revenue -15%๐ด pre-market
Revenue: $PDD Holdings reported a revenue of $13.36 billion, which represents an 86% increase year-over-year. However, this figure missed the analyst consensus estimate, which was set at around $14.02 billion.
EPS: The company's adjusted EPS came in at $3.20, surpassing the analyst expectations of $2.73. This indicates a strong performance in profitability, with an increase from the previous year's EPS in Chinese yuan terms.
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PDD Holdings Inc. $PDD missed revenue -15%๐ด pre-market
Revenue: $PDD Holdings reported a revenue of $13.36 billion, which represents an 86% increase year-over-year. However, this figure missed the analyst consensus estimate, which was set at around $14.02 billion.
EPS: The company's adjusted EPS came in at $3.20, surpassing the analyst expectations of $2.73. This indicates a strong performance in profitability, with an increase from the previous year's EPS in Chinese yuan terms.
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $INTU ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 32.13x
โข10-Year Mean: 33.68x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.16%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.72%
As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere near fair value & over fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~17 LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $INTU is a good business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $4.07B
โขLong-Term Debt: $5.54B
$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 43.9%
โข2020: 25.2%
โข2021: 19.7%
โข2022: 10.7%
โข2023: 13.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 47.4%
โข2020: 41.2%
โข2021: 27.5%
โข2022: 15.7%
โข2023: 14.1%
โข2024: 16.6%
$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $4.24B
โข2024: $16.29B
โขCAGR: 14.40%
FREE CASH FLOWโ *
โข2014: $1.34B
โข2024: $4.63B
โขCAGR: 13.20%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $16.94
โข2024: $3.49
โขCAGR: 17.11%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2014: $0.76
โข2024: $3.60
โขCAGR: 16.82%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 280.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~3.7%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~3.8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 23.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 18.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~17% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 16.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (16.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $19.29 (13.9% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.13 (14.7% YoY)
$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $INTU ends 2026 with $22.13 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $708.16๐ต โฆ ~7.8% CAGR
31x P/E: $686.03๐ต โฆ ~6.1% CAGR
30x P/E: $663.90๐ต โฆ ~4.3% CAGR
29x P/E: $641.77๐ต โฆ ~2.5% CAGR
As you can see, even at 32x $INTU return potential is mediocre
At 34x, $INTU return potential is closer to 11.30%, an attractive rate of return but not an assumption that I am willing to rely on as weโre not left with much of a margin of safety given todays $620๐ต share price
Iโd consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $535๐ต, or ~28x NTM earnings (~13% below todays price)
Given todayโs estimates, at $535๐ต I can reasonably expect ~10.6% CAGR while assuming a 29x multiple
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A sober valuation analysis on $INTU ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 32.13x
โข10-Year Mean: 33.68x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.16%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.72%
As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere near fair value & over fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~17 LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $INTU is a good business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $4.07B
โขLong-Term Debt: $5.54B
$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 43.9%
โข2020: 25.2%
โข2021: 19.7%
โข2022: 10.7%
โข2023: 13.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 47.4%
โข2020: 41.2%
โข2021: 27.5%
โข2022: 15.7%
โข2023: 14.1%
โข2024: 16.6%
$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $4.24B
โข2024: $16.29B
โขCAGR: 14.40%
FREE CASH FLOWโ *
โข2014: $1.34B
โข2024: $4.63B
โขCAGR: 13.20%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $16.94
โข2024: $3.49
โขCAGR: 17.11%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2014: $0.76
โข2024: $3.60
โขCAGR: 16.82%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 280.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~3.7%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~3.8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 23.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 18.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~17% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 16.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (16.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $19.29 (13.9% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.13 (14.7% YoY)
$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $INTU ends 2026 with $22.13 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $708.16๐ต โฆ ~7.8% CAGR
31x P/E: $686.03๐ต โฆ ~6.1% CAGR
30x P/E: $663.90๐ต โฆ ~4.3% CAGR
29x P/E: $641.77๐ต โฆ ~2.5% CAGR
As you can see, even at 32x $INTU return potential is mediocre
At 34x, $INTU return potential is closer to 11.30%, an attractive rate of return but not an assumption that I am willing to rely on as weโre not left with much of a margin of safety given todays $620๐ต share price
Iโd consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $535๐ต, or ~28x NTM earnings (~13% below todays price)
Given todayโs estimates, at $535๐ต I can reasonably expect ~10.6% CAGR while assuming a 29x multiple
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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โ Bourbon Capital
MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies Inc. $MRM is up 180%๐ข pre-market
MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies Inc. has announced a capital and business alliance with NFES Technologies Inc., with the latter becoming the lead investor in MEDIROMโs subsidiary MOTHER Labsโ Series A funding round, valuing the company at 9 billion yen. This partnership aims to promote the MOTHER Bracelet, a recharge-free smart health tracker, and expand its use in various industries including nursing care, transportation, and manufacturing. MEDIROM anticipates this move to attract more investors and support the subsidiaryโs growth and product distribution through department stores and e-commerce platforms
Source: https://t.co/NZf6ElxYOy
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MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies Inc. $MRM is up 180%๐ข pre-market
MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies Inc. has announced a capital and business alliance with NFES Technologies Inc., with the latter becoming the lead investor in MEDIROMโs subsidiary MOTHER Labsโ Series A funding round, valuing the company at 9 billion yen. This partnership aims to promote the MOTHER Bracelet, a recharge-free smart health tracker, and expand its use in various industries including nursing care, transportation, and manufacturing. MEDIROM anticipates this move to attract more investors and support the subsidiaryโs growth and product distribution through department stores and e-commerce platforms
Source: https://t.co/NZf6ElxYOy
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Offshore
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โ Bourbon Capital
While I'm not a huge fan of $GOOG, its current P/E ratio near 20 is unusual. I'm willing to wait for a slightly lower valuation, but it seems we're heading in that direction https://t.co/JBqwCRLuF5
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While I'm not a huge fan of $GOOG, its current P/E ratio near 20 is unusual. I'm willing to wait for a slightly lower valuation, but it seems we're heading in that direction https://t.co/JBqwCRLuF5
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โ Quality Stocks
โ๏ธ Cloud is one of my favorite investment themes. It is expected to grow above 15% a year by 2030
But you have several ways to invest in it. Let's dig in ๐
MAJOR CLOUD PROVIDERS
๐บ๐ธ Microsoft $MSFT
๐บ๐ธ Amazon $AMZN
๐บ๐ธ Alphabet $GOOGL
DATA CENTERS
๐บ๐ธ Vertiv $VRT
๐บ๐ธ Arista Networks $ANET
๐ซ๐ท Schneider Electric $SU
SAAS SOFTWARE
๐บ๐ธ Adobe $ADBE
๐ฉ๐ช Nemetschek $NEM
๐บ๐ธ Salesforce $CRM
๐บ๐ธ Servicenow $NOW
๐บ๐ธ Snowflake $SNOW
CYBERSECURITY
๐บ๐ธ Palo Alto $PANW
๐บ๐ธ Fortinet $FTNT
๐บ๐ธ Crowdstrike $CRWD
SEMICONDUCTORS
๐บ๐ธ AMD $AMD
๐บ๐ธ NVidia $NVDA
๐ณ๐ฑ ASML $ASML
IT CONSULTING
๐บ๐ธ Accenture $ACN
๐ฎ๐ณ Infosys $INFY
๐ซ๐ท Capgemini $CAP
Of course this is not an exhaustive list. Which stocks would you add to these cloud market winners?
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โ๏ธ Cloud is one of my favorite investment themes. It is expected to grow above 15% a year by 2030
But you have several ways to invest in it. Let's dig in ๐
MAJOR CLOUD PROVIDERS
๐บ๐ธ Microsoft $MSFT
๐บ๐ธ Amazon $AMZN
๐บ๐ธ Alphabet $GOOGL
DATA CENTERS
๐บ๐ธ Vertiv $VRT
๐บ๐ธ Arista Networks $ANET
๐ซ๐ท Schneider Electric $SU
SAAS SOFTWARE
๐บ๐ธ Adobe $ADBE
๐ฉ๐ช Nemetschek $NEM
๐บ๐ธ Salesforce $CRM
๐บ๐ธ Servicenow $NOW
๐บ๐ธ Snowflake $SNOW
CYBERSECURITY
๐บ๐ธ Palo Alto $PANW
๐บ๐ธ Fortinet $FTNT
๐บ๐ธ Crowdstrike $CRWD
SEMICONDUCTORS
๐บ๐ธ AMD $AMD
๐บ๐ธ NVidia $NVDA
๐ณ๐ฑ ASML $ASML
IT CONSULTING
๐บ๐ธ Accenture $ACN
๐ฎ๐ณ Infosys $INFY
๐ซ๐ท Capgemini $CAP
Of course this is not an exhaustive list. Which stocks would you add to these cloud market winners?
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