Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Ross & Van Compernolle on Bank Central Asia $BBCA IJ
Thesis: Bank Central Asia's strong profitability, efficient cost structure, and potential for further growth in Indonesia solidify its position as a top-performing bank in the region
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/rJUgBdhLT3
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Ross & Van Compernolle on Bank Central Asia $BBCA IJ
Thesis: Bank Central Asia's strong profitability, efficient cost structure, and potential for further growth in Indonesia solidify its position as a top-performing bank in the region
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/rJUgBdhLT3
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Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #71
#investing #stocks #StockMarket https://t.co/u4rwYk6xB1
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Quote of the day #71
#investing #stocks #StockMarket https://t.co/u4rwYk6xB1
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Offshore
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โ Invest In Assets ๐
RT @InvestInAssets: 8 Visual Investing Lessons๐งต
1: Moats are essential for long-term investors: https://t.co/MK49STm6Wd
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RT @InvestInAssets: 8 Visual Investing Lessons๐งต
1: Moats are essential for long-term investors: https://t.co/MK49STm6Wd
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Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #71
#investing #stocks #StockMarket https://t.co/YXN6FhWxqO
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Quote of the day #71
#investing #stocks #StockMarket https://t.co/YXN6FhWxqO
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Royal London AM on 4imprint $FOUR LN
Thesis: 4imprint's leadership in a fragmented market and efficient business model position it for strong growth and high returns on capital
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/MiXLUq6edK
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Royal London AM on 4imprint $FOUR LN
Thesis: 4imprint's leadership in a fragmented market and efficient business model position it for strong growth and high returns on capital
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/MiXLUq6edK
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Offshore
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โ Invest In Assets ๐
Undervalued wide-moat businesses according to Morningstar: https://t.co/ubqv2QEp9y
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Undervalued wide-moat businesses according to Morningstar: https://t.co/ubqv2QEp9y
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 17.73x
โข15-Year Mean: 24.41x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.89%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.85%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~37% MORE in operating cash flow & ~2% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $89.09B
โขLong-Term Debt: $61.78B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2019: 10.4%
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โขLTM: 13.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.9%
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โขLTM: 21.9%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $232.89B
โข2023: $574.79B
โขCAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $17.30B
โข2023: $32.22B
โขCAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $1.01
โข2023: $2.90
โขCAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.63B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~37% MORE in OCF & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.23 (38% YoY)
2025E: $13.31 (18% YoY)
2026E: $16.70 (25% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.70 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.51x P/OCF: $309.03๐ต โฆ ~26.03% CAGR
16.19 P/OCF: $270.40๐ต โฆ ~19.11% CAGR
13.88x P/OCF: $231.77๐ต โฆ ~11.59% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what itโs trading for today, a multiple it hasnโt treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential:
2024E: $54.00B (46% YoY)
2025E: $71.74B (32% YoY)
2026E: $96.65B (34% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $51.31B
๐Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $178๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 17.73x
โข15-Year Mean: 24.41x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.89%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.85%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~37% MORE in operating cash flow & ~2% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $89.09B
โขLong-Term Debt: $61.78B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2019: 10.4%
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โขLTM: 13.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.9%
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โขLTM: 21.9%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $232.89B
โข2023: $574.79B
โขCAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $17.30B
โข2023: $32.22B
โขCAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $1.01
โข2023: $2.90
โขCAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.63B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~37% MORE in OCF & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.23 (38% YoY)
2025E: $13.31 (18% YoY)
2026E: $16.70 (25% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.70 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.51x P/OCF: $309.03๐ต โฆ ~26.03% CAGR
16.19 P/OCF: $270.40๐ต โฆ ~19.11% CAGR
13.88x P/OCF: $231.77๐ต โฆ ~11.59% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what itโs trading for today, a multiple it hasnโt treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential:
2024E: $54.00B (46% YoY)
2025E: $71.74B (32% YoY)
2026E: $96.65B (34% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $51.31B
๐Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $178๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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