⁠Matt McGarry
Is ClickFunnels the best business of all time?

- 100% bootstrapped
- 150,000 customers
- Grew w/negative CAC
- $265,000,000+ in annual revenue
- SaaS (recurring rev + high multiple)
- Clear category winner for info products

Plus, it grew with negative CAC (he GOT PAID to grow): https://t.co/kLNll6HGzq
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: Walter Schloss on different investment strategies 👇🏼

Quote of the day #70 https://t.co/IketRJqFbs
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 20.89x
•10-Year Mean: 23.59x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.14%
•10-Year Mean: 4.17%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & roughly the same in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.88B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.9%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 30.9%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & roughly the same in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.45% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.45%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.62 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.68 (13.9% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

24x P/E: $239.28💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~14.6% CAGR

22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~12.5% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >22x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At 23x - 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to trade for ~24x (given current growth rate estimates, its moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Today at $168.00💵 $GOOG appears to be an attractive consideration for investment

$GOOG presents excellent value & a wide margin of safety closer to $150💵 or ~10% below today’s price

At $150💵, investors can reasonably expect ~13.4% CAGR even assuming 20x earnings

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Newbridge AM on Celsius Holdings $CELH US

Thesis: Celsius Holdings' rapid growth, strong brand appeal, and strategic partnerships position it for substantial market share gains in the competitive functional beverage space

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/yRTpAIfRKV
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⁠Bourbon Capital
Good morning

The following companies just reported earnings:

$TD The Toronto Bank -1.97%🔴
$NTES NetEase -5.57%🔴
$BIDU Baidu -1.86%🔴
$WSM Williams-Sonoma -8.93%🔴
$VIK Viking Holdings -2.31%🔴
$BJ BJ's Wholesale -6.94%🔴
$AAP Advance Auto Parts -22.05%🔴
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⁠Bourbon Capital
Peloton Interactive, Inc. $PTON is up 18.46%

Congrats Wallstreetbets They are still 99% down https://t.co/eARNg5wMCQ
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⁠Bourbon Capital
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $AAP is down 17%🔴

The stock is down 75% from its peak

FCF Growth 5y: -5.97%🔴
EPS Growth 5y: -42%🔴
CARG 10y: -8.79%🔴
Net income Growth 5y: -45%🔴
Debt is up 33% since 2018

Michael Burry sold this position in Q2 https://t.co/oyxYYx3i4Y
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
🚨 BREAKING: We just caught 81 STOCK Act violations by Representative Jared Moskowitz.

He bought Lockheed Martin stock, $LMT, on February 13th.

It has risen 30% since then.

Moskowitz sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

In response to these violations, he has said:

- The transactions occurred in an account directed by an independent financial manager

- Due to an administrative error, the report preparer did not receive transaction notifications

- The issue was discovered while preparing his annual disclosure report and promptly rectified

- Safeguards have been implemented to make sure that future transactions are reported in a timely manner
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⁠PitchDeckGuy
An energy drink was one of the best investments over the past decade...

Here's Celsius' deck: https://t.co/wn2ZNlzBie
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