AkhenOsiris
$AMZN pre-market strength primarily due to Yip AWS data, maybe a sprinkle of WMT in there
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AkhenOsiris
Nimble Niles missed a 4.5% index move higher in 2+ days.

Trying to predict the timing of military action, gtfoh 😂

While I posted about a high probability of an oversold bounce following the 3% decline of the S&P on 8/5, I believe it is prudent to get more conservative following the recent rally that has erased all of those losses.

Two yrs ago, Russia waited to invade Ukraine till after the winter Olympics in China were over. I believe Iran could also be waiting to attack Israel till everyone returns home from the Olympics in France. Given the weaker than expected guidance from many of the AI driven Magnificent 7 names and the incremental weakening in consumer demand seen when Q2 results were reported, rising geopolitical tension might be a catalyst for a retest of the 8/5 lows this summer.

I am also not convinced the unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade that has been employed for more than a decade has been fully unwound in just a few weeks with no financial casualties. For example, Long-Term Capital Management failed when Russia devalued the ruble and defaulted on their debt in 1998.

From a longer-term perspective, I still do not believe we get a recession:
1) There are still over 10% more job openings than people unemployed.
2) Unemployment is still low at 4.3%.
3) The Fed is expected to cut multiple times this year.

As a result, I would become more bullish upon a retest of the 8/5 lows on the S&P. - Dan Niles
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: Interesting analysis by @KevRGordon on what drove small-cap underperformance.

Key points:

1️⃣ Small-caps are more levered and are thus more sensitive to rate changes. They should do well if the FED starts cutting.

1/5 https://t.co/SQAOkFJvhp
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⁠PitchDeckGuy
DraftKings is a $16B market cap leader in sports betting and continues to gain market share each year.

Here’s their deck: https://t.co/22VukpiPNZ
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⁠Librarian Capital
This may be significant:

"FDA Announces Proposed Rule to Require Submission of Tracking Numbers for Imports of E-Cigarette Products"

"Any ENDS product ... for which the STN is not submitted may be denied entry into the US"

$MO $BATS $BTI $PM $IMB https://t.co/TL09eevLvA
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⁠Invest In Assets 📈
RT @InvestInAssets: History of bull & bear markets: https://t.co/I8TedwSoEv
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Polen Capital on Option Care Health $OPCH US

Thesis: Option Care Health leads the growing home infusion market, promising strong revenue growth and high returns on invested capital

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/xfHpoLuBOf
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⁠PitchDeckGuy
From her home kitchen to a $1.1B valuation

Rachel Drori revolutionized frozen meals with Daily Harvest

Here’s her story👇 https://t.co/e13VhVqV1v
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⁠PitchDeckGuy
Has any stock underperformed more than GoPro? https://t.co/E9GkKv4USg
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Insider Trading Alert

Envista Holdings, $NVST, sees major insider buys:

🔹CEO: ~$506,100 purchase on Aug 13
🔹CFO: ~$400,607 purchase on Aug 12

Largest insider purchases in 5 years.

The stock is up 4% today. https://t.co/JGXRgrE45I
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AkhenOsiris
Don't even see 🐻's attributing July retail sales strength to Prime Day bump, where the heck are they
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