⁠App Economy Insights
$WMT Walmart Q2 FY25 (ending in July):

• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $169.3B ($1.9B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.67 ($0.02 beat).
• Walmart US comp sales +4%.
• E-commerce +21% Y/Y.
• Advertising +26% Y/Y.

FY25 Guidance:
• Net sales +3.75% to 4.75% Y/Y (0.75% raise). https://t.co/Zb970ompZc
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⁠Librarian Capital
Not obvious, but Japanese Yen is weaker vs. a year ago

15-Aug-23: $/¥ = 146
15-Aug-23: $/¥ = 149 https://t.co/xEaibM58fM
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
This is getting RIDICULOUS.

We just caught ANOTHER politician violating the STOCK Act.

This time it’s Rep. Greg Landsman

He is now the 10th member of Congress who we have caught in the last month.

Here is my theory for why there have been so many violations this month:

Last month, a bill was advanced that would increase penalties for STOCK Act violations.

It seems like politicians are disclosing all their overdue trades now, to avoid those penalties.

But if that’s the case, does that mean that they have been aware they had these late, un-disclosed trades, and have just been waiting for a good time to disclose them?

That would be an intentional violation of anti-insider trading laws.

It should be investigated by the House Ethics Commmittee, but several of that committee’s members have violated the STOCT Act themselves.

What a mess.
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AkhenOsiris
Recession delayed

Walmart CFO to @melissa_repko: "We don't see any additional fraying of consumer health."

Raises guidance.
Shares look to open at an all-time high. $WMT - Carl Quintanilla
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN pre-market strength primarily due to Yip AWS data, maybe a sprinkle of WMT in there
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AkhenOsiris
Nimble Niles missed a 4.5% index move higher in 2+ days.

Trying to predict the timing of military action, gtfoh 😂

While I posted about a high probability of an oversold bounce following the 3% decline of the S&P on 8/5, I believe it is prudent to get more conservative following the recent rally that has erased all of those losses.

Two yrs ago, Russia waited to invade Ukraine till after the winter Olympics in China were over. I believe Iran could also be waiting to attack Israel till everyone returns home from the Olympics in France. Given the weaker than expected guidance from many of the AI driven Magnificent 7 names and the incremental weakening in consumer demand seen when Q2 results were reported, rising geopolitical tension might be a catalyst for a retest of the 8/5 lows this summer.

I am also not convinced the unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade that has been employed for more than a decade has been fully unwound in just a few weeks with no financial casualties. For example, Long-Term Capital Management failed when Russia devalued the ruble and defaulted on their debt in 1998.

From a longer-term perspective, I still do not believe we get a recession:
1) There are still over 10% more job openings than people unemployed.
2) Unemployment is still low at 4.3%.
3) The Fed is expected to cut multiple times this year.

As a result, I would become more bullish upon a retest of the 8/5 lows on the S&P. - Dan Niles
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: Interesting analysis by @KevRGordon on what drove small-cap underperformance.

Key points:

1️⃣ Small-caps are more levered and are thus more sensitive to rate changes. They should do well if the FED starts cutting.

1/5 https://t.co/SQAOkFJvhp
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⁠PitchDeckGuy
DraftKings is a $16B market cap leader in sports betting and continues to gain market share each year.

Here’s their deck: https://t.co/22VukpiPNZ
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⁠Librarian Capital
This may be significant:

"FDA Announces Proposed Rule to Require Submission of Tracking Numbers for Imports of E-Cigarette Products"

"Any ENDS product ... for which the STN is not submitted may be denied entry into the US"

$MO $BATS $BTI $PM $IMB https://t.co/TL09eevLvA
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⁠Invest In Assets 📈
RT @InvestInAssets: History of bull & bear markets: https://t.co/I8TedwSoEv
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Polen Capital on Option Care Health $OPCH US

Thesis: Option Care Health leads the growing home infusion market, promising strong revenue growth and high returns on invested capital

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/xfHpoLuBOf
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