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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ULTA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 12.20x
•5-Year Mean: 21.99x

•NTM FCF Yield: 7.62%
•5-Year Mean: 4.50%

As you can see, $ULTA appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~80% MORE in earnings per share & ~69% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ULTA is a good business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $524.60M
•Long-Term Debt: $0

$ULTA has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 22.9%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 37.9%
•2023: 41.8%
•2024: 39.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 37.9%
•2021: 9.0%
•2022: 55.8%
•2023: 71.1%
•2024: 60.9%

$ULTA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2019: $6.72
•2024: $11.21B
•CAGR: 10.77%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $636.73M
•2024: $1.04B
•CAGR: 10.33%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $10.94
•2024: $26.03
•CAGR: 18.92%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 64.46M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 49.07M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~23.8%, $ULTA increased its EPS by ~31.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 42.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 14.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 11.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~80% MORE in EPS & ~69% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ULTA has to grow earnings at an 6.10% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over next few years to be at the (6.10%) required growth rate:

2025E: $25.68 (-1.3% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $28.19 (9.8% YoY)
2027E: $31.12 (10.4% YoY)

$ULTA has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ULTA ends 2027 with $31.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

17x P/E: $529.04💵 … ~22.3% CAGR

16x P/E: $497.92💵 … ~19.4% CAGR

15x P/E: $466.80💵 … ~16.3% CAGR

14x P/E: $435.68💵 … ~13.1% CAGR

13x P/E: $404.56💵 … ~9.8% CAGR

As you can see, $ULTA appears to have attractive return potential if we assume it trades 14x earnings (a reasonable assumption)

However, the 🔑 here is that $ULTA multiple needs to expand from the current NTM P/E of 12.20x

$ULTA growth rate slowed down significantly, however share buybacks (especially at current levels) can be very accretive & lead to some EPS growth

Multiples can compress when growth expectations aren’t met, & multiples can expand when growth expectations are exceeded, among other things

$ULTA will likely trade at a higher multiple IF growth returns — this is the leap of faith investors would need to take to invest in $ULTA

Given its record, return metrics, exceptional balance sheet, & strong consumer loyalty (42M members in loyalty program & over 95% of sales funnel through its loyalty program), I believe the odds are in $ULTA favor

Today at $320💵 $ULTA appears to be a good consideration for investment* (*not a “forever buy & hold”)

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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