AkhenOsiris
RT @MuppetTrading: This $CRWD take by Brad Zelnick should really be an instant classic.

Imagine being sell-sider wanting to publish $CRWD defend note but cannot hit send because the systems aren't working. - Random Muppet
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MSCI with a strong Q2 2024 Report 🗓️

Revenues: $707.95M (+14.0% YoY) ✅

Adjusted EPS: $3.64 (11.7% YoY) ✅

Notable Points 👇🏽

•Best Q2 of new recurring subscription sales

•Retention rate of 94.8%

•Total Run Rate: $2.80B (+14.6% YoY)

#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN $META $GOOGL

Morgan Stanley Mega-Cap Preview

Amazon remains Morgan Stanley's top mega-cap pick ahead of earnings, with analysts predicting strong potential for Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth and improved North American profitability in a note to clients this week.

According to Morgan Stanley, which raised its target for AMZN to $240, AWS needs to grow by at least 18% to build new management credibility and ensure confidence in its GenAI positioning.

The bank believes the market also needs clarity on the slope of North American retail profits, with Morgan Stanley estimating they are 8-12% ahead of street predictions for 2024/2025 company-wide EBIT.

"Stepping back to total company-wide EBIT, we think 2Q results/3Q guide should make the market feel more confident in a path toward ~$70bn of company-wide EBIT (mid-$80bn in '25)," wrote Morgan Stanley. "Notably for the 3Q guide, we are in-line with street on Total Revenue, largely driven by 1% above street North America Revenue and -2% below street International Revenue."

For Meta, Morgan Stanley highlights a new bottom-up capex model providing greater visibility into return on invested capital (ROIC). The model predicts Meta's total GPU power will increase sevenfold from 2024 to 2026.

Analysts believe more than 50% of Meta's current GPU capex is targeted toward high-ROIC core improvements, while the remainder funds longer-term projects like training Llama models and developing Meta AI.

Morgan Stanley sees a path toward approximately $29 of free cash flow in 2026 and sets a price target of $550, indicating a 15% upside.

Google is expected to show 12% year-over-year search revenue growth in Q2, driven by strong digital ad markets and recent SEO changes.

Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of profit revisions and believes the Street's EBIT estimates are too low. With disciplined opex management, Google's ability to deliver stronger revenue growth could drive tactical outperformance. The bank maintains an Overweight rating on Google with a price target of $210, reflecting an 18% upside.
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⁠Brandon Beylo
Yet another car manufacturer reducing EV investment and delaying its transition to 100% EVs.

"Porsche has now watered down that goal by tying it explicitly to customer demand and developments in the EV sector."

Almost like economics and customer demand matter.

#EVs #PGMs
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
7 Quality Stocks with 10%+ CAGR Potential if 2026 EPS Estimates are Met & Valuations Return to <5-year mean 💸

📦 amazon $amzn* (p/ocf better metric)
•5-year mean p/ocf: 23.13x
•used p/ocf: 16.00x
•ocf 2026e: $16.33
•cagr potential: 15.42% ✅

💳 visa $v
•5-year mean p/e: 30.11x
•used p/e: 27.00x
•eps 2026e: $12.65
•cagr potential: 12.21% ✅

💵 mastercard $ma
•5-year mean p/e: 35.28x
•used p/e: 27.00x
•eps 2026e: $19.35
•cagr potential: 11.50% ✅

🖱️ alphabet $goog $googl
•5-year mean p/e: 24.62x
•used p/e: 24.00x
•eps 2026e: $9.87
•cagr potential: 11.23% ✅

🖨️ asml holding $asml
•5-year mean p/e: 35.28x
•used p/e: 32.00x
•eps 2026e: $37.67
•cagr potential: 11.11% ✅

🩻 elevance health $elv
•5-year mean p/e: 14.00x
•used p/e: 13.50x
•eps 2026e: $47.00
•cagr potential: 10.95% ✅

🤖 fortinet $ftnt
•5-year mean p/e: 46.92x
•used p/e: 31.50x
•eps 2026e: $2.36
•cagr potential: 10.01% ✅

#stocks #investing
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⁠Brandon Beylo
Ford continues to shift investment dollars away from EVs and into ICE vehicles.

"Ford recently shifted plans for its Canadian plant from being an all-electric vehicle hub to expanding Super Duty truck production."

Customer demand matters.

Costs matter.

Profits matter.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: @DividendDynasty Yup! $MSCI finally got to my target price 🤞🏽

On April 10 2024, I shared my analysis on $MSCI suggesting it was overvalued at $542💵 & a good consideration at $450💵

Since that post, $MSCI is down -13.0% & is currently trading for $473💵

As I stated in my analysis:

“As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety

Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, I’d demand greater value from $MSCI

I’d likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450💵 or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)”

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Brandon Beylo
We are long Fenix Resources $FEX.

The market sees a single-asset iron ore producer w/ low mine life.

We see a business growing production to 4Mt/year in 1-2 years w/ path towards 10Mt/yr.

900% upside + net cash/port asset value protection

Read here 👇
https://t.co/CgCtOLLUXZ
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Attention investors ‼️ — I am SURE this post will sharpen your investing mindset and skills. Take a couple minutes to read it in full - it'll be a game-changer for your investment journey.

Yesterday I shared a poll asking if you thought $BMY was undervalued or a value trap, given its 17.32% FCF Yield.

Before I share my opinion, I believe it’s CRITICAL to emphasize the importance of being selective when building a portfolio.

Imagine you were the manager of a fútbol club (in this case Liverpool FC 😉) and you have to choose your Starting XI.

Would you add $BMY? .. More on this later.

You can see my Starting XI in the photo below.

It’s a club of exceptional businesses that have wide moats, pristine balance sheets, excellent returns on invested capital and quality revenues & earnings.

$BMY on the other hand doesn’t really fit in this club as it fails to meet these standards.

Another way to demonstrate this is if you were building a fútbol club & you could choose ANY footballer, I’m sure your club may look something like this:

Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham, Alison Becker, Virgil Van Dyke, David Alaba, Kyle Walker, Trent Alexander Arnold, & Ilkay Gundogan.

INVESTING IS NO DIFFERENT.

You have the opportunity to build a SUPERTEAM of quality businesses & nobody is forcing you to buy “subpar players” for your club.

As Warren Buffett even said:

“I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime.”

The mistake MANY investors make is NOT being SELECTIVE enough.

Why add a subpar player to your squad when you could buy Ronaldo?

You’ll become a better investor and enhance your financial welfare by focusing on buying the world’s BEST & MOST QUALITY business when they trade at a fair or better valuation. This should be your focus.

Do not let the daily noise of the market sway you into buying a subpar company just because it trades for a low multiple.

So this brings us to $BMY.

Although $BMY may “appear” undervalued due to its low multiple & high FCF Yield, it could be a value trap and does not belong in my “superteam” of companies.

In short, it lacks many of the qualities I mentioned for the other businesses & has a poor history of performance.

Just have a look at the long-term growth of $BMY Revenues, EPS, & Balance Sheet and you’ll be very unimpressed.

Sure, $BMY may “have moments of excellence” (as any footballer may have in the occasional game) with nice rallies off its lows, but this doesn’t make $BMY a consistent performer for my club.

Yes, it’s important to consider the future when investing (which isn’t even bright for $BMY at the moment). However, it doesn’t mean we should forget about the poor performances $BMY has had over the last 15 years.

I wouldn’t want to count on a player who’s been performing poorly over 15 seasons and hope that this player will finally show me moments of consistent brilliance for the next 5 seasons.

Also, we should to be wise and consider the opportunity cost of owning subpar businesses over excellent businesses over the years.

I am sure there are many investors who have owned $BMY for the last ~5 years in hopes that $BMY would eventually see it supposed “value” realized.

Meanwhile, the same investors would have been better off, owning more shares of companies like $V $MA $GOOG $META $ASML $LRCX $NVDA $MSFT $CRM $VRTX $TMO $AAPL etc.

This was my Achilles Heel when I first started my investment journey in 2016. I was TOO focused on valuation & lower multiples rather than QUALITY & growth at a reasonable price.

So when you’re[...]

building your club of equities, don’t buy a bench player in place of Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. You’d just be downgrading your team & winning less.

If you made it this far, hope this helped!

Feel free to share your starting XI 😉

#stocks #investing"

$BMY currently trades for a 17.32% FCF Yield, doubling its 10-year average FCF Yield of 8.46%

Is $BMY a value trap or is it undervalued?

I will share my thoughts on $BMY once the poll is complete 👇🏽

#stocks #investing
- Value Trap 📉
- Undervalued 📈 "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Brandon Beylo
I love how investors are like, "I only invest in stable jurisdictions with sound governments ... that's why we invest in US markets."

My brother in Christ.

We haven't seen our President in almost a week since he "resigned" from office.

Just invest in South Africa already.
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⁠Brandon Beylo
BREAKING NEWS:

CAPITALISM WORKS.

Milei Triumphs 🇦🇷: Poverty Plummets 9 Points to 48.5% Amid Unexpected Economic Growth and Lower Inflation https://t.co/4XN9KHoTqk - ShellBanger
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AkhenOsiris
$SNOW

Snowflake today announced that it will host the Llama 3.1 collection of multilingual open source large language models (LLMs) in Snowflake Cortex AI for enterprises to easily harness and build powerful AI applications at scale. This offering includes Meta’s largest and most powerful open source LLM, Llama 3.1 405B, with Snowflake developing and open sourcing the inference system stack to enable real-time, high-throughput inference and further democratize powerful natural language processing and generation applications. Snowflake’s industry-leading AI Research Team has optimized Llama 3.1 405B for both inference and fine-tuning, supporting a massive 128K context window from day one, while enabling real-time inference with up to 3x lower end-to-end latency and 1.4x higher throughput than existing open source solutions. Moreover, it allows for fine-tuning on the massive model using just a single GPU node — eliminating costs and complexity for developers and users — all within Cortex AI.
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