Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
We're lightening our book at Macro Ops.
This one charts explains why.
We're having a decent year and don't want to give too much back to Mr. Market.
The Trend is getting fragile.
Stay frosty. https://t.co/PrUaBE7GPt
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We're lightening our book at Macro Ops.
This one charts explains why.
We're having a decent year and don't want to give too much back to Mr. Market.
The Trend is getting fragile.
Stay frosty. https://t.co/PrUaBE7GPt
tweet
AkhenOsiris
$AMZN $META $GOOGL
Amazon is emerging as the "most favored long among mega-caps" as the tech giant heads into its second-quarter earnings report, according to a recent note from Wells Fargo analysts.
Despite mixed hedge fund positioning for competitors like Meta, Wells Fargo believes Amazon stands out due to strong performance expectations and positive forward commentary.
The bank's analysts predict an 18% increase in Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue for the second quarter, with a sufficient operating income (OI) guidance of $16 billion for the third quarter.
The firm said it will also be closely monitoring Amazon's air freight commentary, estimating its impact on third-quarter operating income to be in the $200-$400 million range.
"See AMZN as the most favored long among mega-caps vs. META with more mixed HF positioning," the analysts stated, highlighting the strong investor sentiment towards Amazon.
In contrast, Google is expected to report a 14% constant currency growth for the second quarter, in line with the first quarter excluding Leap Day. They add that this growth is necessary to support the buyside's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $9.25.
For Meta, a $40 billion revenue guide for the third quarter would support the analysts' 2025 revenue growth outlook of 14-15%.
Investor interest is also high around 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) expectations for mega-cap internet companies. The analysts noted, "Unfortunately, believe clues on '25 CapEx from 2Q EPS will be limited."
Wells Fargo notes that current investor expectations for 2025 CapEx are as follows: Meta in the high $40 billion range, Google in the high $50 billion range, and Amazon AWS in the mid-$50 billion range.
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$AMZN $META $GOOGL
Amazon is emerging as the "most favored long among mega-caps" as the tech giant heads into its second-quarter earnings report, according to a recent note from Wells Fargo analysts.
Despite mixed hedge fund positioning for competitors like Meta, Wells Fargo believes Amazon stands out due to strong performance expectations and positive forward commentary.
The bank's analysts predict an 18% increase in Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue for the second quarter, with a sufficient operating income (OI) guidance of $16 billion for the third quarter.
The firm said it will also be closely monitoring Amazon's air freight commentary, estimating its impact on third-quarter operating income to be in the $200-$400 million range.
"See AMZN as the most favored long among mega-caps vs. META with more mixed HF positioning," the analysts stated, highlighting the strong investor sentiment towards Amazon.
In contrast, Google is expected to report a 14% constant currency growth for the second quarter, in line with the first quarter excluding Leap Day. They add that this growth is necessary to support the buyside's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $9.25.
For Meta, a $40 billion revenue guide for the third quarter would support the analysts' 2025 revenue growth outlook of 14-15%.
Investor interest is also high around 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) expectations for mega-cap internet companies. The analysts noted, "Unfortunately, believe clues on '25 CapEx from 2Q EPS will be limited."
Wells Fargo notes that current investor expectations for 2025 CapEx are as follows: Meta in the high $40 billion range, Google in the high $50 billion range, and Amazon AWS in the mid-$50 billion range.
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AkhenOsiris
Cohere, a generative AI startup co-founded by ex-Google researchers, has raised $500 million in new cash from investors including Cisco, AMD and Fujitsu.
Bloomberg says that the round, which also had participation from Canadian pension investment manager PSP Investments and Canada’s export credit agency EDC, values Toronto-based Cohere at $5.5 billion. That’s more than double the startup’s valuation from last June, when it secured $270 million from Inovia Capital and others, and brings Cohere’s total raised to $970 million.
Josh Gartner, head of communications at Cohere, told TechCrunch that the financing sets Cohere up for “accelerated growth.”
“[W]e continue to significantly expand our technical teams to build the next generations of accurate, data privacy-focused enterprise AI,” Gartner said in a statement. “Cohere is laser-focused on leading the AI industry beyond esoteric benchmarks to deliver real-world benefits in the daily workflows of global businesses across regions and languages.”
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Cohere, a generative AI startup co-founded by ex-Google researchers, has raised $500 million in new cash from investors including Cisco, AMD and Fujitsu.
Bloomberg says that the round, which also had participation from Canadian pension investment manager PSP Investments and Canada’s export credit agency EDC, values Toronto-based Cohere at $5.5 billion. That’s more than double the startup’s valuation from last June, when it secured $270 million from Inovia Capital and others, and brings Cohere’s total raised to $970 million.
Josh Gartner, head of communications at Cohere, told TechCrunch that the financing sets Cohere up for “accelerated growth.”
“[W]e continue to significantly expand our technical teams to build the next generations of accurate, data privacy-focused enterprise AI,” Gartner said in a statement. “Cohere is laser-focused on leading the AI industry beyond esoteric benchmarks to deliver real-world benefits in the daily workflows of global businesses across regions and languages.”
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
As the eCommerce earnings season approaches, Bernstein has identified Amazon as its top pick, citing the company's operational income (OI) inflection. Analysts emphasize the need for growth in the eCommerce sector, noting that while Amazon shows promise, other companies struggle to gain momentum.
"We've been here before," says Bernstein, reflecting on the familiar mixed data landscape for eCommerce. They note that US eCommerce grew approximately 7% year-over-year in Q2, with non-store sales slowing down from 12% in April to 5% in June.
Bernstein highlights Amazon's potential for incremental margin expansion, driven by cost cuts and typical operating leverage. However, they caution about recent concerns over freight costs and lower-margin sales during Prime Day potentially impacting margins.
Despite these worries, Bernstein remains optimistic about Amazon's performance, mentioning that "we should see advertising accelerate into 2H as Prime Video ads scale." They see Amazon's retail segment as the most defensive, with a focus on retail margins.
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$AMZN
As the eCommerce earnings season approaches, Bernstein has identified Amazon as its top pick, citing the company's operational income (OI) inflection. Analysts emphasize the need for growth in the eCommerce sector, noting that while Amazon shows promise, other companies struggle to gain momentum.
"We've been here before," says Bernstein, reflecting on the familiar mixed data landscape for eCommerce. They note that US eCommerce grew approximately 7% year-over-year in Q2, with non-store sales slowing down from 12% in April to 5% in June.
Bernstein highlights Amazon's potential for incremental margin expansion, driven by cost cuts and typical operating leverage. However, they caution about recent concerns over freight costs and lower-margin sales during Prime Day potentially impacting margins.
Despite these worries, Bernstein remains optimistic about Amazon's performance, mentioning that "we should see advertising accelerate into 2H as Prime Video ads scale." They see Amazon's retail segment as the most defensive, with a focus on retail margins.
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
RT @MuppetTrading: This $CRWD take by Brad Zelnick should really be an instant classic.
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RT @MuppetTrading: This $CRWD take by Brad Zelnick should really be an instant classic.
Imagine being sell-sider wanting to publish $CRWD defend note but cannot hit send because the systems aren't working. - Random Muppettweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MSCI with a strong Q2 2024 Report 🗓️
Revenues: $707.95M (+14.0% YoY) ✅
Adjusted EPS: $3.64 (11.7% YoY) ✅
Notable Points 👇🏽
•Best Q2 of new recurring subscription sales
•Retention rate of 94.8%
•Total Run Rate: $2.80B (+14.6% YoY)
#stocks #investing
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$MSCI with a strong Q2 2024 Report 🗓️
Revenues: $707.95M (+14.0% YoY) ✅
Adjusted EPS: $3.64 (11.7% YoY) ✅
Notable Points 👇🏽
•Best Q2 of new recurring subscription sales
•Retention rate of 94.8%
•Total Run Rate: $2.80B (+14.6% YoY)
#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN $META $GOOGL
Morgan Stanley Mega-Cap Preview
Amazon remains Morgan Stanley's top mega-cap pick ahead of earnings, with analysts predicting strong potential for Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth and improved North American profitability in a note to clients this week.
According to Morgan Stanley, which raised its target for AMZN to $240, AWS needs to grow by at least 18% to build new management credibility and ensure confidence in its GenAI positioning.
The bank believes the market also needs clarity on the slope of North American retail profits, with Morgan Stanley estimating they are 8-12% ahead of street predictions for 2024/2025 company-wide EBIT.
"Stepping back to total company-wide EBIT, we think 2Q results/3Q guide should make the market feel more confident in a path toward ~$70bn of company-wide EBIT (mid-$80bn in '25)," wrote Morgan Stanley. "Notably for the 3Q guide, we are in-line with street on Total Revenue, largely driven by 1% above street North America Revenue and -2% below street International Revenue."
For Meta, Morgan Stanley highlights a new bottom-up capex model providing greater visibility into return on invested capital (ROIC). The model predicts Meta's total GPU power will increase sevenfold from 2024 to 2026.
Analysts believe more than 50% of Meta's current GPU capex is targeted toward high-ROIC core improvements, while the remainder funds longer-term projects like training Llama models and developing Meta AI.
Morgan Stanley sees a path toward approximately $29 of free cash flow in 2026 and sets a price target of $550, indicating a 15% upside.
Google is expected to show 12% year-over-year search revenue growth in Q2, driven by strong digital ad markets and recent SEO changes.
Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of profit revisions and believes the Street's EBIT estimates are too low. With disciplined opex management, Google's ability to deliver stronger revenue growth could drive tactical outperformance. The bank maintains an Overweight rating on Google with a price target of $210, reflecting an 18% upside.
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$AMZN $META $GOOGL
Morgan Stanley Mega-Cap Preview
Amazon remains Morgan Stanley's top mega-cap pick ahead of earnings, with analysts predicting strong potential for Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth and improved North American profitability in a note to clients this week.
According to Morgan Stanley, which raised its target for AMZN to $240, AWS needs to grow by at least 18% to build new management credibility and ensure confidence in its GenAI positioning.
The bank believes the market also needs clarity on the slope of North American retail profits, with Morgan Stanley estimating they are 8-12% ahead of street predictions for 2024/2025 company-wide EBIT.
"Stepping back to total company-wide EBIT, we think 2Q results/3Q guide should make the market feel more confident in a path toward ~$70bn of company-wide EBIT (mid-$80bn in '25)," wrote Morgan Stanley. "Notably for the 3Q guide, we are in-line with street on Total Revenue, largely driven by 1% above street North America Revenue and -2% below street International Revenue."
For Meta, Morgan Stanley highlights a new bottom-up capex model providing greater visibility into return on invested capital (ROIC). The model predicts Meta's total GPU power will increase sevenfold from 2024 to 2026.
Analysts believe more than 50% of Meta's current GPU capex is targeted toward high-ROIC core improvements, while the remainder funds longer-term projects like training Llama models and developing Meta AI.
Morgan Stanley sees a path toward approximately $29 of free cash flow in 2026 and sets a price target of $550, indicating a 15% upside.
Google is expected to show 12% year-over-year search revenue growth in Q2, driven by strong digital ad markets and recent SEO changes.
Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of profit revisions and believes the Street's EBIT estimates are too low. With disciplined opex management, Google's ability to deliver stronger revenue growth could drive tactical outperformance. The bank maintains an Overweight rating on Google with a price target of $210, reflecting an 18% upside.
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
7 Quality Stocks with 10%+ CAGR Potential if 2026 EPS Estimates are Met & Valuations Return to <5-year mean 💸
📦 amazon $amzn* (p/ocf better metric)
•5-year mean p/ocf: 23.13x
•used p/ocf: 16.00x
•ocf 2026e: $16.33
•cagr potential: 15.42% ✅
💳 visa $v
•5-year mean p/e: 30.11x
•used p/e: 27.00x
•eps 2026e: $12.65
•cagr potential: 12.21% ✅
💵 mastercard $ma
•5-year mean p/e: 35.28x
•used p/e: 27.00x
•eps 2026e: $19.35
•cagr potential: 11.50% ✅
🖱️ alphabet $goog $googl
•5-year mean p/e: 24.62x
•used p/e: 24.00x
•eps 2026e: $9.87
•cagr potential: 11.23% ✅
🖨️ asml holding $asml
•5-year mean p/e: 35.28x
•used p/e: 32.00x
•eps 2026e: $37.67
•cagr potential: 11.11% ✅
🩻 elevance health $elv
•5-year mean p/e: 14.00x
•used p/e: 13.50x
•eps 2026e: $47.00
•cagr potential: 10.95% ✅
🤖 fortinet $ftnt
•5-year mean p/e: 46.92x
•used p/e: 31.50x
•eps 2026e: $2.36
•cagr potential: 10.01% ✅
#stocks #investing
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7 Quality Stocks with 10%+ CAGR Potential if 2026 EPS Estimates are Met & Valuations Return to <5-year mean 💸
📦 amazon $amzn* (p/ocf better metric)
•5-year mean p/ocf: 23.13x
•used p/ocf: 16.00x
•ocf 2026e: $16.33
•cagr potential: 15.42% ✅
💳 visa $v
•5-year mean p/e: 30.11x
•used p/e: 27.00x
•eps 2026e: $12.65
•cagr potential: 12.21% ✅
💵 mastercard $ma
•5-year mean p/e: 35.28x
•used p/e: 27.00x
•eps 2026e: $19.35
•cagr potential: 11.50% ✅
🖱️ alphabet $goog $googl
•5-year mean p/e: 24.62x
•used p/e: 24.00x
•eps 2026e: $9.87
•cagr potential: 11.23% ✅
🖨️ asml holding $asml
•5-year mean p/e: 35.28x
•used p/e: 32.00x
•eps 2026e: $37.67
•cagr potential: 11.11% ✅
🩻 elevance health $elv
•5-year mean p/e: 14.00x
•used p/e: 13.50x
•eps 2026e: $47.00
•cagr potential: 10.95% ✅
🤖 fortinet $ftnt
•5-year mean p/e: 46.92x
•used p/e: 31.50x
•eps 2026e: $2.36
•cagr potential: 10.01% ✅
#stocks #investing
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Offshore
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: @DividendDynasty Yup! $MSCI finally got to my target price 🤞🏽
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RT @DimitryNakhla: @DividendDynasty Yup! $MSCI finally got to my target price 🤞🏽
On April 10 2024, I shared my analysis on $MSCI suggesting it was overvalued at $542💵 & a good consideration at $450💵
Since that post, $MSCI is down -13.0% & is currently trading for $473💵
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, I’d demand greater value from $MSCI
I’d likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450💵 or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)”
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. tweet
Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
We are long Fenix Resources $FEX.
The market sees a single-asset iron ore producer w/ low mine life.
We see a business growing production to 4Mt/year in 1-2 years w/ path towards 10Mt/yr.
900% upside + net cash/port asset value protection
Read here 👇
https://t.co/CgCtOLLUXZ
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We are long Fenix Resources $FEX.
The market sees a single-asset iron ore producer w/ low mine life.
We see a business growing production to 4Mt/year in 1-2 years w/ path towards 10Mt/yr.
900% upside + net cash/port asset value protection
Read here 👇
https://t.co/CgCtOLLUXZ
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Attention investors ‼️ — I am SURE this post will sharpen your investing mindset and skills. Take a couple minutes to read it in full - it'll be a game-changer for your investment journey.
Yesterday I shared a poll asking if you thought $BMY was undervalued or a value trap, given its 17.32% FCF Yield.
Before I share my opinion, I believe it’s CRITICAL to emphasize the importance of being selective when building a portfolio.
Imagine you were the manager of a fútbol club (in this case Liverpool FC 😉) and you have to choose your Starting XI.
Would you add $BMY? .. More on this later.
You can see my Starting XI in the photo below.
It’s a club of exceptional businesses that have wide moats, pristine balance sheets, excellent returns on invested capital and quality revenues & earnings.
$BMY on the other hand doesn’t really fit in this club as it fails to meet these standards.
Another way to demonstrate this is if you were building a fútbol club & you could choose ANY footballer, I’m sure your club may look something like this:
Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham, Alison Becker, Virgil Van Dyke, David Alaba, Kyle Walker, Trent Alexander Arnold, & Ilkay Gundogan.
INVESTING IS NO DIFFERENT.
You have the opportunity to build a SUPERTEAM of quality businesses & nobody is forcing you to buy “subpar players” for your club.
As Warren Buffett even said:
“I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime.”
The mistake MANY investors make is NOT being SELECTIVE enough.
Why add a subpar player to your squad when you could buy Ronaldo?
You’ll become a better investor and enhance your financial welfare by focusing on buying the world’s BEST & MOST QUALITY business when they trade at a fair or better valuation. This should be your focus.
Do not let the daily noise of the market sway you into buying a subpar company just because it trades for a low multiple.
So this brings us to $BMY.
Although $BMY may “appear” undervalued due to its low multiple & high FCF Yield, it could be a value trap and does not belong in my “superteam” of companies.
In short, it lacks many of the qualities I mentioned for the other businesses & has a poor history of performance.
Just have a look at the long-term growth of $BMY Revenues, EPS, & Balance Sheet and you’ll be very unimpressed.
Sure, $BMY may “have moments of excellence” (as any footballer may have in the occasional game) with nice rallies off its lows, but this doesn’t make $BMY a consistent performer for my club.
Yes, it’s important to consider the future when investing (which isn’t even bright for $BMY at the moment). However, it doesn’t mean we should forget about the poor performances $BMY has had over the last 15 years.
I wouldn’t want to count on a player who’s been performing poorly over 15 seasons and hope that this player will finally show me moments of consistent brilliance for the next 5 seasons.
Also, we should to be wise and consider the opportunity cost of owning subpar businesses over excellent businesses over the years.
I am sure there are many investors who have owned $BMY for the last ~5 years in hopes that $BMY would eventually see it supposed “value” realized.
Meanwhile, the same investors would have been better off, owning more shares of companies like $V $MA $GOOG $META $ASML $LRCX $NVDA $MSFT $CRM $VRTX $TMO $AAPL etc.
This was my Achilles Heel when I first started my investment journey in 2016. I was TOO focused on valuation & lower multiples rather than QUALITY & growth at a reasonable price.
So when you’re[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: Attention investors ‼️ — I am SURE this post will sharpen your investing mindset and skills. Take a couple minutes to read it in full - it'll be a game-changer for your investment journey.
Yesterday I shared a poll asking if you thought $BMY was undervalued or a value trap, given its 17.32% FCF Yield.
Before I share my opinion, I believe it’s CRITICAL to emphasize the importance of being selective when building a portfolio.
Imagine you were the manager of a fútbol club (in this case Liverpool FC 😉) and you have to choose your Starting XI.
Would you add $BMY? .. More on this later.
You can see my Starting XI in the photo below.
It’s a club of exceptional businesses that have wide moats, pristine balance sheets, excellent returns on invested capital and quality revenues & earnings.
$BMY on the other hand doesn’t really fit in this club as it fails to meet these standards.
Another way to demonstrate this is if you were building a fútbol club & you could choose ANY footballer, I’m sure your club may look something like this:
Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham, Alison Becker, Virgil Van Dyke, David Alaba, Kyle Walker, Trent Alexander Arnold, & Ilkay Gundogan.
INVESTING IS NO DIFFERENT.
You have the opportunity to build a SUPERTEAM of quality businesses & nobody is forcing you to buy “subpar players” for your club.
As Warren Buffett even said:
“I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime.”
The mistake MANY investors make is NOT being SELECTIVE enough.
Why add a subpar player to your squad when you could buy Ronaldo?
You’ll become a better investor and enhance your financial welfare by focusing on buying the world’s BEST & MOST QUALITY business when they trade at a fair or better valuation. This should be your focus.
Do not let the daily noise of the market sway you into buying a subpar company just because it trades for a low multiple.
So this brings us to $BMY.
Although $BMY may “appear” undervalued due to its low multiple & high FCF Yield, it could be a value trap and does not belong in my “superteam” of companies.
In short, it lacks many of the qualities I mentioned for the other businesses & has a poor history of performance.
Just have a look at the long-term growth of $BMY Revenues, EPS, & Balance Sheet and you’ll be very unimpressed.
Sure, $BMY may “have moments of excellence” (as any footballer may have in the occasional game) with nice rallies off its lows, but this doesn’t make $BMY a consistent performer for my club.
Yes, it’s important to consider the future when investing (which isn’t even bright for $BMY at the moment). However, it doesn’t mean we should forget about the poor performances $BMY has had over the last 15 years.
I wouldn’t want to count on a player who’s been performing poorly over 15 seasons and hope that this player will finally show me moments of consistent brilliance for the next 5 seasons.
Also, we should to be wise and consider the opportunity cost of owning subpar businesses over excellent businesses over the years.
I am sure there are many investors who have owned $BMY for the last ~5 years in hopes that $BMY would eventually see it supposed “value” realized.
Meanwhile, the same investors would have been better off, owning more shares of companies like $V $MA $GOOG $META $ASML $LRCX $NVDA $MSFT $CRM $VRTX $TMO $AAPL etc.
This was my Achilles Heel when I first started my investment journey in 2016. I was TOO focused on valuation & lower multiples rather than QUALITY & growth at a reasonable price.
So when you’re[...]