⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: This is what happens when you pay a ludicrous 50x earnings for a business that does not meet growth estimates 📉

$NKE down nearly -60% from its highs ‼️

Multiples, relative to growth estimates, matter 🎯

#stocks #investing https://t.co/slqst29rL4
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
NOTABLE EARNINGS REPORTS THIS WEEK JULY 22 - 26🗓️

𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
PM🌓
$BRO $CDNS $MEDP

𝐓𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$MSCI $KO $DHR $PM $UPS $SHW $MCO $BTI $LMT $AOS

PM🌓
$GOOG $V $TSLA $TXN $CNI $CB

𝐖𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$TMO $ODFL $T $APH $CME $GD $ROP

PM🌓
$KLAC $CMG $WM $NOW $IBM $F $EW $TER

𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$ABBV $UNP $NOC $HON $NDAQ $STM $TSCO $POOL $WST

PM🌓
$NSC $LHX

𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$BMY $AON $CL $TROW $MMM

#stocks #investing
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ELV 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 12.61x
•5-Year Mean: 14.00x

•NTM FCF Yield: 6.28%
•5-Year Mean: 7.00%

As you can see, $ELV appears to be trading somewhere near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ELV is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $6.50B
•Total Investments: $37.15B
•Long-Term Debt: $24.56B

$ELV has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 7.83x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.3%
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.3%
•2022: 13.6%
•2023: 14.7%
•LTM: 14.6%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 16.0%
•2020: 14.1%
•2021: 17.7%
•2022: 16.3%
•2023: 15.8%
•LTM: 16.6%

$ELV has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $71.02B
•2023: $171.34B
•CAGR: 9.20%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.41B
•2023: $6.77B
•CAGR: 10.88%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $8.52
•2023: $33.14
•CAGR: 14.54%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 303.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 234.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.6%, $ELV increases its EPS by ~29.1% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 9.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 6.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 3.9%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.50
•2023: $5.92
•CAGR: 14.71%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ELV has to grow earnings at a 6.31% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (6.31%) required growth rate:

2024E: $37.27 (12.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $41.71 (11.9% YoY)
2026E: $47.00 (12.7% YoY)

$ELV has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ELV ends 2026 with $47.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

15x P/E: $705.00💵 … ~16.0% CAGR

14x P/E: $658.00💵 … ~12.9% CAGR

13.5x P/E: $611.00💵 … ~11.3% CAGR

13x P/E: $611.00💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $ELV has attractive CAGR potential if we assume a >13.5x multiple (below its 14.00x 5-year mean & below its 14.21x 10-year mean)

This assumption is MORE than reasonable for a business that’s growing earnings at a >10% rate & has a strong history of linear earnings growth ( $ELV has increased EPS annually since 2008 🎯)

I also like the negative price correlation $ELV can have, relative to tech, in the short-term … adding a layer of safety in a portfolio

In short, $ELV appears to be a worthwhile consideration at $500💵

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Brandon Beylo
Bill Miller is one of the greatest investors of our generation.

He beat the S&P 500 for 15 straight years.

And he returned 119% in 2019.

He's the brain-child of Buffett, Graham, John B. Williams, and Munger.

Here are three of Miller's most important investing lessons ... 🧵 https://t.co/DmYTZbQcJc
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⁠Brandon Beylo
We're lightening our book at Macro Ops.

This one charts explains why.

We're having a decent year and don't want to give too much back to Mr. Market.

The Trend is getting fragile.

Stay frosty. https://t.co/PrUaBE7GPt
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN $META $GOOGL

Amazon is emerging as the "most favored long among mega-caps" as the tech giant heads into its second-quarter earnings report, according to a recent note from Wells Fargo analysts.

Despite mixed hedge fund positioning for competitors like Meta, Wells Fargo believes Amazon stands out due to strong performance expectations and positive forward commentary.

The bank's analysts predict an 18% increase in Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue for the second quarter, with a sufficient operating income (OI) guidance of $16 billion for the third quarter.

The firm said it will also be closely monitoring Amazon's air freight commentary, estimating its impact on third-quarter operating income to be in the $200-$400 million range.

"See AMZN as the most favored long among mega-caps vs. META with more mixed HF positioning," the analysts stated, highlighting the strong investor sentiment towards Amazon.

In contrast, Google is expected to report a 14% constant currency growth for the second quarter, in line with the first quarter excluding Leap Day. They add that this growth is necessary to support the buyside's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $9.25.

For Meta, a $40 billion revenue guide for the third quarter would support the analysts' 2025 revenue growth outlook of 14-15%.

Investor interest is also high around 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) expectations for mega-cap internet companies. The analysts noted, "Unfortunately, believe clues on '25 CapEx from 2Q EPS will be limited."

Wells Fargo notes that current investor expectations for 2025 CapEx are as follows: Meta in the high $40 billion range, Google in the high $50 billion range, and Amazon AWS in the mid-$50 billion range.
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AkhenOsiris
Cohere, a generative AI startup co-founded by ex-Google researchers, has raised $500 million in new cash from investors including Cisco, AMD and Fujitsu.

Bloomberg says that the round, which also had participation from Canadian pension investment manager PSP Investments and Canada’s export credit agency EDC, values Toronto-based Cohere at $5.5 billion. That’s more than double the startup’s valuation from last June, when it secured $270 million from Inovia Capital and others, and brings Cohere’s total raised to $970 million.

Josh Gartner, head of communications at Cohere, told TechCrunch that the financing sets Cohere up for “accelerated growth.”

“[W]e continue to significantly expand our technical teams to build the next generations of accurate, data privacy-focused enterprise AI,” Gartner said in a statement. “Cohere is laser-focused on leading the AI industry beyond esoteric benchmarks to deliver real-world benefits in the daily workflows of global businesses across regions and languages.”
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

As the eCommerce earnings season approaches, Bernstein has identified Amazon as its top pick, citing the company's operational income (OI) inflection. Analysts emphasize the need for growth in the eCommerce sector, noting that while Amazon shows promise, other companies struggle to gain momentum.

"We've been here before," says Bernstein, reflecting on the familiar mixed data landscape for eCommerce. They note that US eCommerce grew approximately 7% year-over-year in Q2, with non-store sales slowing down from 12% in April to 5% in June.

Bernstein highlights Amazon's potential for incremental margin expansion, driven by cost cuts and typical operating leverage. However, they caution about recent concerns over freight costs and lower-margin sales during Prime Day potentially impacting margins.

Despite these worries, Bernstein remains optimistic about Amazon's performance, mentioning that "we should see advertising accelerate into 2H as Prime Video ads scale." They see Amazon's retail segment as the most defensive, with a focus on retail margins.
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⁠Brandon Beylo
Here's a tip on finding new event-driven/special situation ideas.

Look at the NEW HIGHS list ex-ATHs.

Screen for new 1M, 3M, 6M, or 52wk highs.

Why do I love this process?

Because you'll find stocks THAT ARE MOVING instead of wasting your time on dead money ideas.

Try it!
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AkhenOsiris
RT @MuppetTrading: This $CRWD take by Brad Zelnick should really be an instant classic.

Imagine being sell-sider wanting to publish $CRWD defend note but cannot hit send because the systems aren't working. - Random Muppet
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MSCI with a strong Q2 2024 Report 🗓️

Revenues: $707.95M (+14.0% YoY) ✅

Adjusted EPS: $3.64 (11.7% YoY) ✅

Notable Points 👇🏽

•Best Q2 of new recurring subscription sales

•Retention rate of 94.8%

•Total Run Rate: $2.80B (+14.6% YoY)

#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN $META $GOOGL

Morgan Stanley Mega-Cap Preview

Amazon remains Morgan Stanley's top mega-cap pick ahead of earnings, with analysts predicting strong potential for Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth and improved North American profitability in a note to clients this week.

According to Morgan Stanley, which raised its target for AMZN to $240, AWS needs to grow by at least 18% to build new management credibility and ensure confidence in its GenAI positioning.

The bank believes the market also needs clarity on the slope of North American retail profits, with Morgan Stanley estimating they are 8-12% ahead of street predictions for 2024/2025 company-wide EBIT.

"Stepping back to total company-wide EBIT, we think 2Q results/3Q guide should make the market feel more confident in a path toward ~$70bn of company-wide EBIT (mid-$80bn in '25)," wrote Morgan Stanley. "Notably for the 3Q guide, we are in-line with street on Total Revenue, largely driven by 1% above street North America Revenue and -2% below street International Revenue."

For Meta, Morgan Stanley highlights a new bottom-up capex model providing greater visibility into return on invested capital (ROIC). The model predicts Meta's total GPU power will increase sevenfold from 2024 to 2026.

Analysts believe more than 50% of Meta's current GPU capex is targeted toward high-ROIC core improvements, while the remainder funds longer-term projects like training Llama models and developing Meta AI.

Morgan Stanley sees a path toward approximately $29 of free cash flow in 2026 and sets a price target of $550, indicating a 15% upside.

Google is expected to show 12% year-over-year search revenue growth in Q2, driven by strong digital ad markets and recent SEO changes.

Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of profit revisions and believes the Street's EBIT estimates are too low. With disciplined opex management, Google's ability to deliver stronger revenue growth could drive tactical outperformance. The bank maintains an Overweight rating on Google with a price target of $210, reflecting an 18% upside.
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