Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
It takes 29 years to develop a new mine in the United States.
But yes, we'll have the metals we need to achieve Net Zero by 2050.
And we'll do it without China's help.
Lol.
#mining #commodities https://t.co/g9Z3cgtf7L
tweet
It takes 29 years to develop a new mine in the United States.
But yes, we'll have the metals we need to achieve Net Zero by 2050.
And we'll do it without China's help.
Lol.
#mining #commodities https://t.co/g9Z3cgtf7L
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
I hope you enjoy my conversation with @TheTungstenGuy.
This podcast will light a fire under anyone interested in commodities, critical minerals, and reshoring US production.
Taylor is building a US-based tungsten company from scratch.
Here's how.
Link in comments. https://t.co/EhpkfZ0IJc
tweet
I hope you enjoy my conversation with @TheTungstenGuy.
This podcast will light a fire under anyone interested in commodities, critical minerals, and reshoring US production.
Taylor is building a US-based tungsten company from scratch.
Here's how.
Link in comments. https://t.co/EhpkfZ0IJc
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
RT @TheTungstenGuy: For anyone interested in what I’ve been working on the past couple of months!
Be on the lookout for additional information over the coming weeks, but here is a great preview with @marketplunger1.
Thanks for having me on!
tweet
RT @TheTungstenGuy: For anyone interested in what I’ve been working on the past couple of months!
Be on the lookout for additional information over the coming weeks, but here is a great preview with @marketplunger1.
Thanks for having me on!
I hope you enjoy my conversation with @TheTungstenGuy.
This podcast will light a fire under anyone interested in commodities, critical minerals, and reshoring US production.
Taylor is building a US-based tungsten company from scratch.
Here's how.
Link in comments. https://t.co/EhpkfZ0IJc tweet
Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
What are we reading this weekend?
I’ll go first.
(Side note: this book is so heavy it could kill a man) https://t.co/MeRZw3z5ln
tweet
What are we reading this weekend?
I’ll go first.
(Side note: this book is so heavy it could kill a man) https://t.co/MeRZw3z5ln
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: This is what happens when you pay a ludicrous 50x earnings for a business that does not meet growth estimates 📉
$NKE down nearly -60% from its highs ‼️
Multiples, relative to growth estimates, matter 🎯
#stocks #investing https://t.co/slqst29rL4
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: This is what happens when you pay a ludicrous 50x earnings for a business that does not meet growth estimates 📉
$NKE down nearly -60% from its highs ‼️
Multiples, relative to growth estimates, matter 🎯
#stocks #investing https://t.co/slqst29rL4
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
NOTABLE EARNINGS REPORTS THIS WEEK JULY 22 - 26🗓️
𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
PM🌓
$BRO $CDNS $MEDP
𝐓𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$MSCI $KO $DHR $PM $UPS $SHW $MCO $BTI $LMT $AOS
PM🌓
$GOOG $V $TSLA $TXN $CNI $CB
𝐖𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$TMO $ODFL $T $APH $CME $GD $ROP
PM🌓
$KLAC $CMG $WM $NOW $IBM $F $EW $TER
𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$ABBV $UNP $NOC $HON $NDAQ $STM $TSCO $POOL $WST
PM🌓
$NSC $LHX
𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$BMY $AON $CL $TROW $MMM
#stocks #investing
tweet
NOTABLE EARNINGS REPORTS THIS WEEK JULY 22 - 26🗓️
𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
PM🌓
$BRO $CDNS $MEDP
𝐓𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$MSCI $KO $DHR $PM $UPS $SHW $MCO $BTI $LMT $AOS
PM🌓
$GOOG $V $TSLA $TXN $CNI $CB
𝐖𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$TMO $ODFL $T $APH $CME $GD $ROP
PM🌓
$KLAC $CMG $WM $NOW $IBM $F $EW $TER
𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$ABBV $UNP $NOC $HON $NDAQ $STM $TSCO $POOL $WST
PM🌓
$NSC $LHX
𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲🗓️
AM☀️
$BMY $AON $CL $TROW $MMM
#stocks #investing
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ELV 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 12.61x
•5-Year Mean: 14.00x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.28%
•5-Year Mean: 7.00%
As you can see, $ELV appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ELV is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $6.50B
•Total Investments: $37.15B
•Long-Term Debt: $24.56B
$ELV has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 7.83x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.3%
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.3%
•2022: 13.6%
•2023: 14.7%
•LTM: 14.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 16.0%
•2020: 14.1%
•2021: 17.7%
•2022: 16.3%
•2023: 15.8%
•LTM: 16.6%
$ELV has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $71.02B
•2023: $171.34B
•CAGR: 9.20%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.41B
•2023: $6.77B
•CAGR: 10.88%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $8.52
•2023: $33.14
•CAGR: 14.54%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 303.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 234.95M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.6%, $ELV increases its EPS by ~29.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 9.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 6.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 3.9%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.50
•2023: $5.92
•CAGR: 14.71%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ELV has to grow earnings at a 6.31% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (6.31%) required growth rate:
2024E: $37.27 (12.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $41.71 (11.9% YoY)
2026E: $47.00 (12.7% YoY)
$ELV has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ELV ends 2026 with $47.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
15x P/E: $705.00💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $658.00💵 … ~12.9% CAGR
13.5x P/E: $611.00💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
13x P/E: $611.00💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, $ELV has attractive CAGR potential if we assume a >13.5x multiple (below its 14.00x 5-year mean & below its 14.21x 10-year mean)
This assumption is MORE than reasonable for a business that’s growing earnings at a >10% rate & has a strong history of linear earnings growth ( $ELV has increased EPS annually since 2008 🎯)
I also like the negative price correlation $ELV can have, relative to tech, in the short-term … adding a layer of safety in a portfolio
In short, $ELV appears to be a worthwhile consideration at $500💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $ELV 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 12.61x
•5-Year Mean: 14.00x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.28%
•5-Year Mean: 7.00%
As you can see, $ELV appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ELV is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $6.50B
•Total Investments: $37.15B
•Long-Term Debt: $24.56B
$ELV has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 7.83x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.3%
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.3%
•2022: 13.6%
•2023: 14.7%
•LTM: 14.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 16.0%
•2020: 14.1%
•2021: 17.7%
•2022: 16.3%
•2023: 15.8%
•LTM: 16.6%
$ELV has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $71.02B
•2023: $171.34B
•CAGR: 9.20%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.41B
•2023: $6.77B
•CAGR: 10.88%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $8.52
•2023: $33.14
•CAGR: 14.54%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 303.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 234.95M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.6%, $ELV increases its EPS by ~29.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 9.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 6.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 3.9%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.50
•2023: $5.92
•CAGR: 14.71%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ELV has to grow earnings at a 6.31% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (6.31%) required growth rate:
2024E: $37.27 (12.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $41.71 (11.9% YoY)
2026E: $47.00 (12.7% YoY)
$ELV has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ELV ends 2026 with $47.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
15x P/E: $705.00💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $658.00💵 … ~12.9% CAGR
13.5x P/E: $611.00💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
13x P/E: $611.00💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, $ELV has attractive CAGR potential if we assume a >13.5x multiple (below its 14.00x 5-year mean & below its 14.21x 10-year mean)
This assumption is MORE than reasonable for a business that’s growing earnings at a >10% rate & has a strong history of linear earnings growth ( $ELV has increased EPS annually since 2008 🎯)
I also like the negative price correlation $ELV can have, relative to tech, in the short-term … adding a layer of safety in a portfolio
In short, $ELV appears to be a worthwhile consideration at $500💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
Bill Miller is one of the greatest investors of our generation.
He beat the S&P 500 for 15 straight years.
And he returned 119% in 2019.
He's the brain-child of Buffett, Graham, John B. Williams, and Munger.
Here are three of Miller's most important investing lessons ... 🧵 https://t.co/DmYTZbQcJc
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Bill Miller is one of the greatest investors of our generation.
He beat the S&P 500 for 15 straight years.
And he returned 119% in 2019.
He's the brain-child of Buffett, Graham, John B. Williams, and Munger.
Here are three of Miller's most important investing lessons ... 🧵 https://t.co/DmYTZbQcJc
tweet