AkhenOsiris
"TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels"

$AMZN

Piper Sandler analysts said its ad buyer checks were once again constructive, exceeding expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter after a series of misses during the period from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022.

Digital spend in 1Q was up 8.4% year-over-year, approximately 70 basis points above ad buyerโ€™s expectation at the end of the quarter. Although 2Q outperformance was lower than 1Q's 290 basis points, it still surpassed 4Q's 40 basis points.

Looking into 2024, Piper Sandler said ad buyer forecasts about 8.4% digital growth for the fiscal year, down approximately 110 basis points from their March estimate. Analysts also noted a slightly weaker economy compared to three months ago.

"While key debates like student loans repayment and high rates have been better, certain verticals have struggled to recover (auto, financials) and the election creates some uncertainty," the note states.

Amazon, Snapchat, and Pinterest all outperformed 2Q24 estimates by over 300 basis points, while TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels.

Amazon has achieved an "incredible" level of data utilization through its Amazon Media Cloud (AMC), with even Google and Meta contributing anonymized data due to the advantages.
- AkhenOsiris
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
WHERE IS ADAM JONAS

Another episode of Overpromise / underdeliver. On the day of Muskโ€˜s 8/8 announcment no one at Tesla knew they had something to reveal and it is pretty clear that they still have nothing.

Yet another red flag added to the collection. On what foundation the massive stock run now rests remains totally unclear.

$TSLA
- Trader 53
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
Today I realized I once bought SKLZ at a split-adjusted price of $180 ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

Trades at $6 today...sounds preposterous until you see the high was ~$875 ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚
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AkhenOsiris
Earnings setups are still terrible, but less so today ๐Ÿ”ฅ
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: 7 Quality Stocks With >10% CAGR Potential Assuming Lower Multiple & 2026 EPS Est ๐Ÿ’ต

๐Ÿ’ณ Visa $V
โ€ข10-Year Avg P/E: 28.10x
โ€ข2026E Earnings: $12.68
โ€ขCAGR Potential w 27x โ€” 12.2% โœ…

๐Ÿ’ธ Mastercard $MA
โ€ข10-Year Avg P/E: 31.28x
โ€ข2026E Earnings: $19.34
โ€ขCAGR Potential w 30x โ€” 11.8% โœ…

๐Ÿ“ฆ Amazon $AMZN (P/FCF Used)
โ€ข10-Year Avg P/FCF: 37.79x
โ€ข2026E FCF: $102.26B
โ€ขCAGR Potential w 27x โ€” 12.0% โœ…

๐Ÿ“Š Salesforce $CRM
โ€ข5-Year Avg P/E: 47.63
โ€ข2026E Earnings: $11.01
โ€ขCAGR Potential w 27x โ€” 10.4% โœ…

๐Ÿฉป UnitedHealth $UNH
โ€ข10-Year Avg P/E: 18.64x
โ€ข2026E Earnings: $34.97
โ€ขCAGR Potential w 18x โ€” 11.5% โœ…

๐Ÿงพ Automatic Data $ADP
โ€ข10-Year Avg P/E: 27.28x
โ€ข2026E Earnings: $10.85
โ€ขCAGR Potential w 26x โ€” 11.5% โœ…

๐Ÿ“ˆ FactSet Research $FDS
โ€ข10-Year Avg P/E: 26.05x
โ€ข2026E Earnings: $19.35
โ€ขCAGR Potential w 26x โ€” 10.2% โœ…

#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
Terrible setups because up so much

Today can be filed under โ€œbe careful what you wish for.โ€ CPI was down 0.1% from May & was the first decline since May 2020 which is certainly good news. While Fed cut hopes rose, investor complacency in all things AI related was reflected in the violent rotation within the market. This is best illustrated by $NVDA down -5.6%. Additionally, the Magnificent7/Nasdaq fell (-4.0%/-2.0%) while the Russell 2000 rose (+3.6%).

Looking forward into tech earnings season which starts in earnest next week, with mega cap starting the week after, I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated. I believe today is a warning sign of what could occur if there are any disappointments among the Mag7 due to ROI (return on investment) concerns.

During Q1 earnings season, the Mag7 were on average +4% the day after reporting with only $META down the next day. The group surged another 20% the day after reporting earnings to the close today on 7/11 for a total year-to-date gain of 43%. This upcoming Q2 earnings season could be very different than Q1.

$AAPL is my favorite of the Mag7 given its poor revenue performance over the past three years and likelihood finally for a multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle driven by AI.

$META is likely to benefit from upcoming election & Olympics spend. Having said that, they did guide below expectations for Q2 revenue when they reported in Q1 and the stock was hit for 11% the next day.

$MSFT scares me due to my increasing concerns over a potential mismatch in AI investment in Azure versus revenues, despite their relationship with OpenAI (the maker of ChatGPT).

$GOOGL has this mismatch risk as well in Google Cloud but I hope the election and Olympics spend can offset this risk in the second half of the year.

$AMZN also has this mismatch risk in Amazon Web Services, but I believe their total company margin expansion driven by e-commerce & advertising revenue growth will continue.

$TSLA reported an upside surprise to deliveries for the first time in a while, but I just cannot get comfortable with their valuation or the heavy price competition in the EV market right now.

$NVDA is deservedly the poster child for the AI trade. But any issues at any of the big hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft & Google) that report before them is likely to matter more than their own results at least till they report in late August.

In summary, my plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections. As I have written about before, while in the near-term I am concerned about an AI digestion period, I believe the ultimate peak is still several years in the future.
- Dan Niles
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $ACN stating:

โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโ€™s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306๐Ÿ’ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

Iโ€™d reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐Ÿ’ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโ€™s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026โ€

Since then, $ACN dropped ~7% & is currently trading at $285๐Ÿ’ต as my research suggested

Tomorrow I will share an updated analysis on $ACN ๐Ÿ’ฏ

#stocks #investing
_______

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ."

A sober valuation analysis on $ACN ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 23.98x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 5.20%

As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $ACN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $5.12B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $71.64M

$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2018: 54.2%
โ€ข2019: 42.1%
โ€ข2020: 30.8%
โ€ข2021: 32.0%
โ€ข2022: 38.2%
โ€ข2023: 33.8%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2018: 41.2%
โ€ข2019: 37.9%
โ€ข2020: 32.1%
โ€ข2021: 31.9%
โ€ข2022: 32.6%
โ€ข2023: 28.5%

$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: $28.56B
โ€ข2023: $64.11B
โ€ขCAGR: 8.42%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: $2.93B
โ€ข2023: $8.99B
โ€ขCAGR: 11.86%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $4.21
โ€ข2023: $11.67
โ€ขCAGR: 10.73%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $1.62
โ€ข2023: $4.48
โ€ขCAGR: 10.70%

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:

2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)

$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential a[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $ACN stating: โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above itsโ€ฆ
ssuming different multiples

25x P/E: $370.75๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.3% CAGR

24x P/E: $355.92๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~8.4% CAGR

23x P/E: $341.09๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~6.5% CAGR

22x P/E: $326.26๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~4.5% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโ€™s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306๐Ÿ’ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

Iโ€™d reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐Ÿ’ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโ€™s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026

#stocks #investing

Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.91x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 24.92x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 4.56%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 4.13%

As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business

*Financials In Euros โ‚ฌ*

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: โ‚ฌ11.29B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: โ‚ฌ11.33B

$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 18.91x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2019: 16.6%
โ€ข2020: 10.2%
โ€ข2021: 18.9%
โ€ข2022: 21.2%
โ€ข2023: 21.0%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2019: 21.5%
โ€ข2020: 12.8%
โ€ข2021: 28.9%
โ€ข2022: 28.0%
โ€ข2023: 26.7%

$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the companyโ€™s financial efficiency

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: โ‚ฌ29.02B
โ€ข2023: โ‚ฌ86.15B
โ€ขCAGR: 11.49%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: โ‚ฌ2.99B
โ€ข2023: โ‚ฌ11.59B
โ€ขCAGR: 14.50%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: โ‚ฌ6.83
โ€ข2023: โ‚ฌ30.33
โ€ขCAGR: 16.07%

SHARE BUYBACKSโŒ
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 500.30M

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 26.5%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 10.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2025 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than (10.95%) the required growth rate:

2024E: โ‚ฌ31.56 (4.3% YoY)* Dec

2025E: โ‚ฌ35.25 (11.4% YoY)
2026E: โ‚ฌ38.15 (8.2% YoY)

So, letโ€™s assume $LVMH ends 2026 with โ‚ฌ38.15 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:

23x P/E: โ‚ฌ877.45๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.0% CAGR

22x P/E: โ‚ฌ839.30๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~8.1% CAGR

21x P/E: โ‚ฌ801.15๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~6.2% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume 23x for $LVMH to have attractive return potential & while 23x is certainly reasonable given its quality, we should be aware that $LVMH 10-Year average multiple (24.92x) is elevated a bit due to the valuation spike in 2020-2021

While $LVMH deserves to trade at a premium multiple due to its quality, Iโ€™m hesitant to rely on 23x because I want to ensure some margin of safety

Itโ€™s safer to rely on ~21x earnings & be pleasantly surprised with some multiple expansion (rather than have the risk of multiple compression)

Iโ€™d prefer to be more patient & wait for a better entry price around โ‚ฌ640๐Ÿ’ต (11% below todays price), this way I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a 21x multiple

$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY

#stocks #investing
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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