⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
7 Quality Stocks FCF CAGR >10% Last 10 Years Trading Near Or Below 5-Year FCF Yield 💸

1️⃣ Visa $V
•FCF CAGR: 22.68%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.94%
•Mean: 3.59%

2️⃣ Salesforce $CRM
•FCF CAGR: 32.26%
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.97%
•Mean: 3.27%

3️⃣ Mastercard $MA
•FCF CAGR: 11.29%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.30%
•Mean: 2.98%

4️⃣ MSCI Inc $MSCI
•FCF CAGR: 15.76%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.47%
•Mean: 2.65%

5️⃣ Meta Platforms $META
•FCF CAGR: 32.85%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.67%
•Mean: 3.69%

6️⃣ Amazon $AMZN
•FCF CAGR: 31.84%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3:06%
•Mean: 2.84%

7️⃣ UnitedHealth $UNH
•FCF CAGR: 16.28%
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.84%
•Mean: 5.81%

#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
$NVDA

Melius: 'Raising Estimates Again - EPS Power of $5 Looking More Real'
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AkhenOsiris
BABA gave us some joy at $90 for a hot second, back in the dumps

"China’s 618 online shopping event marks first-ever sales drop (-7%)" (FT)

Bad news for Estée Lauder $EL, currently guiding to a +6-10% organic sales growth for their Apr-Jun (FY24Q4; PY: +4%), even after some Asia Travel Retail order pull-forward into Q3
ft.com/content/0086c19c-b2d3… - Librarian Capital
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

Baird lifted their price target from $210 to $213 on Amazon after revisiting the margin outlook for the e-commerce and cloud giant.

They believe that AWS margins may contract later this year and into 2025.

“Our view is that AWS segment margins will return to roughly 30% (or even below) as a result of higher levels of operating expenses to support new data centers and infrastructure, increasing mix of lower-margin GenAI workloads, and presumably a resumption of net headcount additions,” analysts said in a note.

“We don't believe GenAI workloads are generally incremental to revenues as yet, and are modeling mid-to-high teens percent AWS revenue CAGR from 2024-2027,” they added.

Baird also anticipates that North American Retail margins, excluding advertising, will return to low single-digit percentage levels over the next two years, with International Retail achieving sustained profitability within the next 2-3 years.

Advertising, on the other hand, is projected to remain a strong margin tailwind. Based on these revised assumptions, the analysts are increasing their consolidated operating margin and earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 above consensus, without altering revenue projections.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don't have the faintest idea.

I think you can be quite sure that over the next ten years there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25%, a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between.

I haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do I think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor.”

— Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 1961 Shareholder Letter 📝
_______

TAKEAWAYS 👇🏽

• Focus on the long-term, not short-term predictions.*

• Resist the temptation to try to time the market or make short-term predictions

• Focus on the underlying fundamentals of your investments

• Have a time horizon of at least 10 years or more

• Avoid making emotional decisions based on short-term market volatility

By adopting this long-term perspective, you can ride out market fluctuations and ultimately achieve your financial goals

#stocks #investing
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks NTM P/FCF | FCF Growth Estimates 2025 - 2026 | LTM ROIC 💸

🤖 NVIDIA $NVDA
•P/FCF: 49.67x
•2025E FCF: $59.25B (+119.3%)
•2026E FCF: $78.84B (+33.1%)
•LTM ROIC: 26.0%

📊 Salesforce $CRM
•P/FCF: 20.39x
•2025E FCF: $11.74B (+23.7%)
•2026E FCF: $13.30B (+13.2%)
•LTM ROIC: 9.0%

📦 Amazon $AMZN
•P/FCF: 33.15x
•2025E FCF: $78.79B (+27.1%)
•2026E FCF: $102.26B (+29.8%)
•LTM ROIC: 12.6%

💳 Mastercard $MA
•P/FCF: 30.46x
•2025E FCF: $14.73B (+21.6%)
•2026E FCF: $17.28B (+17.3%)
•LTM ROIC: 64.1%

📈 S&P Global $SPGI
•P/FCF: 26.68x
•2025E FCF: $4.85B (+12.3%)
•2026E FCF: $5.49B (+13.2%)
•LTM ROIC: 9.0%

🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG
•P/FCF: 27.05x
•2025E FCF: $92.15B (+14.7%)
•2026E FCF: $108.82B (+18.1%)
•LTM ROIC: 30.2%

📸 META $META
•P/FCF: 26.85x
•2025E FCF: $52.17B (+14.1%)
•2026E FCF: $58.94B (+13.0%)
•LTM ROIC: 30.1%

🖨️ ASML Holding $ASML
•P/FCF: 63.68x
•2025E FCF: $9.31B (+73.1%)
•2026E FCF: $11.94B (+28.3%)
•LTM ROIC: 43.8%

📲 Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM
•P/FCF: 49.01x
•2025E FCF: $26.93B (+33.8%)
•2026E FCF: $41.35B (+53.5%)
•LTM ROIC: 20.1%

📉 Intercontinental Exchange $ICE
•P/FCF: 20.15x
•2025E FCF: $4.08B (+11.0%)
•2026E FCF: $4.63B (+13.5%)
•LTM ROIC: 7.7%

#stocks #investing
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $MNST 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 26.71x
•10-Year Mean: 33.16x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.36%
•10-Year Mean: 3.05%

As you can see, $MNST appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~24% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MNST is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $0

$MNST has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 33.7%
•2020: 31.5%
•2021: 27.4%
•2022: 22.4%
•2023: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 28.5%
•2020: 30.2%
•2021: 23.5%
•2022: 17.5%
•2023: 21.4%
•LTM: 21.0%

$MNST has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $2.25B
•2023: $7.14B
•CAGR: 12.24%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $301.27M
•2023: $1.49B
•CAGR: 17.38%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.34
•2023: $1.54
•CAGR: 16.30%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.04B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.05B

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 53.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 22.8%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~24% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MNST has to grow earnings at a 13.36% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (13.36%) required growth rate:

2024E: $1.78 (15.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $2.04 (14.4% YoY)
2026E: $2.31 (13.3% YoY)

$MNST has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MNST ends 2026 with $2.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $73.92💵 … ~17.8% CAGR

30x P/E: $69.30💵 … ~14.8% CAGR

29x P/E: $66.99💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

28x P/E: $64.68💵 … ~11.7% CAGR

As you can see, $MNST appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume 28x earnings, a multiple substantially below its 5-year mean (32.24x) & 10-year mean (33.16x)

Today at $49💵 $MNST appears to be an attractive consideration for investment

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @markflowchatter: Nvidia $NVDA weak in the pre , on some cautious comments from a 3Pdata shop citing momentum weakening in June and less than May - keyword on the AI theme is weakening
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 15 Quality Linear Compounders | Normalized EPS 2008 - 2023 | LTM ROIC🧵

#stocks #investing https://t.co/88H7DTH7vY
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks With Double The YTD Return Of $SPY (+12.02%) | NTM P/E | 5-Year Mean P/E 💵

#stocks #investing https://t.co/Tgl4EQ96UF
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

BI:

Amazon wants Metis to use an AI technique called retrieval-augmented generation, or RAG, the people said. This means Metis will be able to retrieve information from beyond the original data used to train its underlying Olympus model.

The goal is to generate more up-to-date responses. For example, Metis should be able to share the latest stock prices, while some other chatbots that are not RAG can't do so, the people familiar with the situation said.

Metis is also expected to work as an AI agent, one of the people said. AI agents are capable of automating and performing complex tasks based on existing data, like planning a vacation itinerary. Metis's potential use cases range from turning on your lights to booking a flight for you, one of the people told BI.

Jassy is directly involved in Metis and has recently reviewed the progress of the team, one of the people said. The project is currently being tested internally, this person added.

Amazon's AGI team
Metis is part of Amazon's AGI team, led by head scientist and SVP Rohit Prasad, the people familiar with the project said. Jassy last year said this team would report to him and be responsible for building the most ambitious AI models for Amazon, BI previously reported. Vishal Sharma, VP of AGI, has direct oversight of Project Metis, one of the people said.

Amazon is also relying on Alexa for the development of Metis, two of the people said. Many employees working on Metis moved over from Alexa's AI team, and Metis's technology uses some of the resources found in the upgraded version of Alexa, internally dubbed "Remarkable Alexa," they said. BI first reported in January that Amazon plans to launch a new paid version of Alexa, powered by Remarkable Alexa, and a new web browser-based service.

The tentative launch date for Metis is September, right around the time when Amazon hosts a big Alexa event, though the timeline could change, one of the people said. Still, some people on the Metis team said it feels like Amazon is already late to the AI chatbot game and it's unclear how much investment the company is committed to make for the project.

"Technically it will work, I guess, but the question is if it's already too late," one of the people said. "We're playing chase."
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AkhenOsiris
$NET Upgrade

UBS Upgrades Cloudflare to Neutral with $82 PT "Initially, we rated as Sell due to concerns about the premium multiple, near-term Al upside, and go-to-market (GTM) challenges." "However, following recent GTM momentum, better SASE checks, a 1Q guide-down, and a valuation de-rating, we now see a more balanced risk/reward." "Growth headwinds, with Consensus mid-20% revenue grOwth similar to our estimates, appear reflected with shares down 12% since 1Q (vs IGV up 5%)."
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