AkhenOsiris
AI is just hype crowd in shambies
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AI is just hype crowd in shambies
NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA PACT: TO COOPERATE ON SPACE, PEACEFUL USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, AI - KCNA - First Squawktweet
AkhenOsiris
$TSM
Bernstein analysts lifted their price target for TSMC to $200 from $150.
The investment firm expects TSMC to surpass its 2024 guidance, driven by high-end phone demand and advanced technology nodes. The company's data center AI revenue is on the rise, aligning with projections. However, an unexpected boost has come from AI's influence on smartphone upgrades.
“N3 & N5 capacity is full now,” analysts noted. “We expect 3Q24 revenue guide to beat & 2024 full-year USD revenue to rise by 25% & EPS by 28%.”
Most notably, the firm projects that EPS could see an additional 26% increase in 2026, citing continued demand for its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) technology, the earlier-than-expected launch of Intel’s (INTC) Lunar Lake, and a potential price hike in advanced nodes.
Despite a lower-than-expected outsourcing volume from Intel, TSMC's EPS is expected to maintain a mid-teens percentage growth in 2026. This is partly due to AMD joining Apple as an early adopter of TSMC's N2 node technology. Moreover, TSMC is likely to retain some production of supporting tiles for Intel's Panther Lake, despite the latter's plan to move its compute tile back to its own 18A process.
Bernstein has also slightly adjusted its 2024 capital expenditure projections for TSMC upward due to CoWoS investments but has left the 2025 and 2026 estimates unchanged “as we need visibility on upcoming iPhone to better gauge the impact of Edge AI.”
With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times, TSMC stock still trades at a discount of approximately 25% compared to the SOX index, which is near “record deep,” analysts highlight.
“20x is very reasonable in light of the rapid earnings growth & good visibility,” analysts added
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$TSM
Bernstein analysts lifted their price target for TSMC to $200 from $150.
The investment firm expects TSMC to surpass its 2024 guidance, driven by high-end phone demand and advanced technology nodes. The company's data center AI revenue is on the rise, aligning with projections. However, an unexpected boost has come from AI's influence on smartphone upgrades.
“N3 & N5 capacity is full now,” analysts noted. “We expect 3Q24 revenue guide to beat & 2024 full-year USD revenue to rise by 25% & EPS by 28%.”
Most notably, the firm projects that EPS could see an additional 26% increase in 2026, citing continued demand for its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) technology, the earlier-than-expected launch of Intel’s (INTC) Lunar Lake, and a potential price hike in advanced nodes.
Despite a lower-than-expected outsourcing volume from Intel, TSMC's EPS is expected to maintain a mid-teens percentage growth in 2026. This is partly due to AMD joining Apple as an early adopter of TSMC's N2 node technology. Moreover, TSMC is likely to retain some production of supporting tiles for Intel's Panther Lake, despite the latter's plan to move its compute tile back to its own 18A process.
Bernstein has also slightly adjusted its 2024 capital expenditure projections for TSMC upward due to CoWoS investments but has left the 2025 and 2026 estimates unchanged “as we need visibility on upcoming iPhone to better gauge the impact of Edge AI.”
With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times, TSMC stock still trades at a discount of approximately 25% compared to the SOX index, which is near “record deep,” analysts highlight.
“20x is very reasonable in light of the rapid earnings growth & good visibility,” analysts added
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AkhenOsiris
$NET 2nd firm to indicate Apple win
Wells Fargo says Cloudflare potentially embedded in Apple's new PCC architecture.
Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Nowinski believes Cloudflare (NET) was likely selected as the OHTTP provider in Apple's (AAPL) new PCC architecture, which should provide a boost to revenue growth in FY25, given that it will be GA later this fall. Since Apple did not disclose the third-party provider, "we may never hear confirmation of this win from management," the firm acknowledges.
Wells Fargo has an Overweight rating on Cloudflare's shares with a price target of $105.
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$NET 2nd firm to indicate Apple win
Wells Fargo says Cloudflare potentially embedded in Apple's new PCC architecture.
Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Nowinski believes Cloudflare (NET) was likely selected as the OHTTP provider in Apple's (AAPL) new PCC architecture, which should provide a boost to revenue growth in FY25, given that it will be GA later this fall. Since Apple did not disclose the third-party provider, "we may never hear confirmation of this win from management," the firm acknowledges.
Wells Fargo has an Overweight rating on Cloudflare's shares with a price target of $105.
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AkhenOsiris
Jefferies on cybersecurity space notes that while they don’t see material Gen AI revenue showing up until at least CY25, investors should position now given the Gen AI Software market represents an ~$500M to $2B market opportunity in 2024 growing to $3-10B in 2027. Jefferies sees Cyber platforms with access to the largest datasets are the biggest beneficiaries of Gen AI, and the biggest near-term winners in this theme likely CRWD, CHKP, PANW, VRNS, NET. Jefferies says while 2023 was spent dreaming of Gen AI's potential. 2024 will be about moving forward with concrete steps - vendors productizing features & exploring pricing, and customers looking for use cases that justify the cost. As the majority of Gen AI infused products become GA in 2H24, Jefferies expects to see a phased adoption and rev ramp into 2025 & beyond. 45% of CIOs in Jefferies 4Q23 survey expect to deploy AI in the next 12-24 months, up from just 35% in 2Q23.
H/T @heartbreakout
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Jefferies on cybersecurity space notes that while they don’t see material Gen AI revenue showing up until at least CY25, investors should position now given the Gen AI Software market represents an ~$500M to $2B market opportunity in 2024 growing to $3-10B in 2027. Jefferies sees Cyber platforms with access to the largest datasets are the biggest beneficiaries of Gen AI, and the biggest near-term winners in this theme likely CRWD, CHKP, PANW, VRNS, NET. Jefferies says while 2023 was spent dreaming of Gen AI's potential. 2024 will be about moving forward with concrete steps - vendors productizing features & exploring pricing, and customers looking for use cases that justify the cost. As the majority of Gen AI infused products become GA in 2H24, Jefferies expects to see a phased adoption and rev ramp into 2025 & beyond. 45% of CIOs in Jefferies 4Q23 survey expect to deploy AI in the next 12-24 months, up from just 35% in 2Q23.
H/T @heartbreakout
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AkhenOsiris
Anthropic announces latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Daniela Amodei, co-founder of Anthropic, spoke with VentureBeat about the significance of this release. “Claude 3.5 Sonnet is now the most capable, smartest, and cheapest model available on the market today,” Amodei said. “Out of the standard seven intelligence and capability metrics, Claude 3.5 Sonnet beats all of the competition on six of them and is quite close on the seventh. For standard vision metrics, we’re the top in the leaderboard on four out of five, and a close second on one.”
Anthropic’s focus on the enterprise market sets it apart from competitors like OpenAI, which has primarily targeted consumers with its GPT models. While OpenAI has made significant strides in pushing the boundaries of AI capabilities, Anthropic has carved out a niche by tailoring its offerings to the specific needs of businesses. This strategic difference is evident in the features and pricing of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which prioritizes the key factors that matter most to enterprise customers. venturebeat.com/ai/anthropic…
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Anthropic announces latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Daniela Amodei, co-founder of Anthropic, spoke with VentureBeat about the significance of this release. “Claude 3.5 Sonnet is now the most capable, smartest, and cheapest model available on the market today,” Amodei said. “Out of the standard seven intelligence and capability metrics, Claude 3.5 Sonnet beats all of the competition on six of them and is quite close on the seventh. For standard vision metrics, we’re the top in the leaderboard on four out of five, and a close second on one.”
Anthropic’s focus on the enterprise market sets it apart from competitors like OpenAI, which has primarily targeted consumers with its GPT models. While OpenAI has made significant strides in pushing the boundaries of AI capabilities, Anthropic has carved out a niche by tailoring its offerings to the specific needs of businesses. This strategic difference is evident in the features and pricing of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which prioritizes the key factors that matter most to enterprise customers. venturebeat.com/ai/anthropic…
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AkhenOsiris
Along with the new model, Anthropic is also introducing a new feature called Artifacts. With Artifacts, you’ll be able to see and interact with the results of your Claude requests: if you ask the model to design something for you, it can now show you what it looks like and let you edit it right in the app. If Claude writes you an email, you can edit the email in the Claude app instead of having to copy it to a text editor. It’s a small feature, but a clever one — these AI tools need to become more than simple chatbots, and features like Artifacts just give the app more to do.
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Along with the new model, Anthropic is also introducing a new feature called Artifacts. With Artifacts, you’ll be able to see and interact with the results of your Claude requests: if you ask the model to design something for you, it can now show you what it looks like and let you edit it right in the app. If Claude writes you an email, you can edit the email in the Claude app instead of having to copy it to a text editor. It’s a small feature, but a clever one — these AI tools need to become more than simple chatbots, and features like Artifacts just give the app more to do.
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: BofA with "could be bumpy n-t but bullish stance unch" type of remarks on Adyen and Nvidia this morning
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RT @trader_53: BofA with "could be bumpy n-t but bullish stance unch" type of remarks on Adyen and Nvidia this morning
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
7 Quality Stocks FCF CAGR >10% Last 10 Years Trading Near Or Below 5-Year FCF Yield 💸
1️⃣ Visa $V
•FCF CAGR: 22.68%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.94%
•Mean: 3.59%
2️⃣ Salesforce $CRM
•FCF CAGR: 32.26%
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.97%
•Mean: 3.27%
3️⃣ Mastercard $MA
•FCF CAGR: 11.29%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.30%
•Mean: 2.98%
4️⃣ MSCI Inc $MSCI
•FCF CAGR: 15.76%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.47%
•Mean: 2.65%
5️⃣ Meta Platforms $META
•FCF CAGR: 32.85%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.67%
•Mean: 3.69%
6️⃣ Amazon $AMZN
•FCF CAGR: 31.84%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3:06%
•Mean: 2.84%
7️⃣ UnitedHealth $UNH
•FCF CAGR: 16.28%
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.84%
•Mean: 5.81%
#stocks #investing
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7 Quality Stocks FCF CAGR >10% Last 10 Years Trading Near Or Below 5-Year FCF Yield 💸
1️⃣ Visa $V
•FCF CAGR: 22.68%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.94%
•Mean: 3.59%
2️⃣ Salesforce $CRM
•FCF CAGR: 32.26%
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.97%
•Mean: 3.27%
3️⃣ Mastercard $MA
•FCF CAGR: 11.29%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.30%
•Mean: 2.98%
4️⃣ MSCI Inc $MSCI
•FCF CAGR: 15.76%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.47%
•Mean: 2.65%
5️⃣ Meta Platforms $META
•FCF CAGR: 32.85%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.67%
•Mean: 3.69%
6️⃣ Amazon $AMZN
•FCF CAGR: 31.84%
•NTM FCF Yield: 3:06%
•Mean: 2.84%
7️⃣ UnitedHealth $UNH
•FCF CAGR: 16.28%
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.84%
•Mean: 5.81%
#stocks #investing
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
BABA gave us some joy at $90 for a hot second, back in the dumps
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BABA gave us some joy at $90 for a hot second, back in the dumps
"China’s 618 online shopping event marks first-ever sales drop (-7%)" (FT)
Bad news for Estée Lauder $EL, currently guiding to a +6-10% organic sales growth for their Apr-Jun (FY24Q4; PY: +4%), even after some Asia Travel Retail order pull-forward into Q3
ft.com/content/0086c19c-b2d3… - Librarian Capitaltweet
AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
Baird lifted their price target from $210 to $213 on Amazon after revisiting the margin outlook for the e-commerce and cloud giant.
They believe that AWS margins may contract later this year and into 2025.
“Our view is that AWS segment margins will return to roughly 30% (or even below) as a result of higher levels of operating expenses to support new data centers and infrastructure, increasing mix of lower-margin GenAI workloads, and presumably a resumption of net headcount additions,” analysts said in a note.
“We don't believe GenAI workloads are generally incremental to revenues as yet, and are modeling mid-to-high teens percent AWS revenue CAGR from 2024-2027,” they added.
Baird also anticipates that North American Retail margins, excluding advertising, will return to low single-digit percentage levels over the next two years, with International Retail achieving sustained profitability within the next 2-3 years.
Advertising, on the other hand, is projected to remain a strong margin tailwind. Based on these revised assumptions, the analysts are increasing their consolidated operating margin and earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 above consensus, without altering revenue projections.
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$AMZN
Baird lifted their price target from $210 to $213 on Amazon after revisiting the margin outlook for the e-commerce and cloud giant.
They believe that AWS margins may contract later this year and into 2025.
“Our view is that AWS segment margins will return to roughly 30% (or even below) as a result of higher levels of operating expenses to support new data centers and infrastructure, increasing mix of lower-margin GenAI workloads, and presumably a resumption of net headcount additions,” analysts said in a note.
“We don't believe GenAI workloads are generally incremental to revenues as yet, and are modeling mid-to-high teens percent AWS revenue CAGR from 2024-2027,” they added.
Baird also anticipates that North American Retail margins, excluding advertising, will return to low single-digit percentage levels over the next two years, with International Retail achieving sustained profitability within the next 2-3 years.
Advertising, on the other hand, is projected to remain a strong margin tailwind. Based on these revised assumptions, the analysts are increasing their consolidated operating margin and earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 above consensus, without altering revenue projections.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don't have the faintest idea.
I think you can be quite sure that over the next ten years there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25%, a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between.
I haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do I think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor.”
— Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 1961 Shareholder Letter 📝
_______
TAKEAWAYS 👇🏽
• Focus on the long-term, not short-term predictions.*
• Resist the temptation to try to time the market or make short-term predictions
• Focus on the underlying fundamentals of your investments
• Have a time horizon of at least 10 years or more
• Avoid making emotional decisions based on short-term market volatility
By adopting this long-term perspective, you can ride out market fluctuations and ultimately achieve your financial goals
#stocks #investing
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“I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don't have the faintest idea.
I think you can be quite sure that over the next ten years there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25%, a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between.
I haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do I think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor.”
— Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 1961 Shareholder Letter 📝
_______
TAKEAWAYS 👇🏽
• Focus on the long-term, not short-term predictions.*
• Resist the temptation to try to time the market or make short-term predictions
• Focus on the underlying fundamentals of your investments
• Have a time horizon of at least 10 years or more
• Avoid making emotional decisions based on short-term market volatility
By adopting this long-term perspective, you can ride out market fluctuations and ultimately achieve your financial goals
#stocks #investing
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks NTM P/FCF | FCF Growth Estimates 2025 - 2026 | LTM ROIC 💸
🤖 NVIDIA $NVDA
•P/FCF: 49.67x
•2025E FCF: $59.25B (+119.3%)
•2026E FCF: $78.84B (+33.1%)
•LTM ROIC: 26.0%
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•P/FCF: 20.39x
•2025E FCF: $11.74B (+23.7%)
•2026E FCF: $13.30B (+13.2%)
•LTM ROIC: 9.0%
📦 Amazon $AMZN
•P/FCF: 33.15x
•2025E FCF: $78.79B (+27.1%)
•2026E FCF: $102.26B (+29.8%)
•LTM ROIC: 12.6%
💳 Mastercard $MA
•P/FCF: 30.46x
•2025E FCF: $14.73B (+21.6%)
•2026E FCF: $17.28B (+17.3%)
•LTM ROIC: 64.1%
📈 S&P Global $SPGI
•P/FCF: 26.68x
•2025E FCF: $4.85B (+12.3%)
•2026E FCF: $5.49B (+13.2%)
•LTM ROIC: 9.0%
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG
•P/FCF: 27.05x
•2025E FCF: $92.15B (+14.7%)
•2026E FCF: $108.82B (+18.1%)
•LTM ROIC: 30.2%
📸 META $META
•P/FCF: 26.85x
•2025E FCF: $52.17B (+14.1%)
•2026E FCF: $58.94B (+13.0%)
•LTM ROIC: 30.1%
🖨️ ASML Holding $ASML
•P/FCF: 63.68x
•2025E FCF: $9.31B (+73.1%)
•2026E FCF: $11.94B (+28.3%)
•LTM ROIC: 43.8%
📲 Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM
•P/FCF: 49.01x
•2025E FCF: $26.93B (+33.8%)
•2026E FCF: $41.35B (+53.5%)
•LTM ROIC: 20.1%
📉 Intercontinental Exchange $ICE
•P/FCF: 20.15x
•2025E FCF: $4.08B (+11.0%)
•2026E FCF: $4.63B (+13.5%)
•LTM ROIC: 7.7%
#stocks #investing
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10 Quality Stocks NTM P/FCF | FCF Growth Estimates 2025 - 2026 | LTM ROIC 💸
🤖 NVIDIA $NVDA
•P/FCF: 49.67x
•2025E FCF: $59.25B (+119.3%)
•2026E FCF: $78.84B (+33.1%)
•LTM ROIC: 26.0%
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•P/FCF: 20.39x
•2025E FCF: $11.74B (+23.7%)
•2026E FCF: $13.30B (+13.2%)
•LTM ROIC: 9.0%
📦 Amazon $AMZN
•P/FCF: 33.15x
•2025E FCF: $78.79B (+27.1%)
•2026E FCF: $102.26B (+29.8%)
•LTM ROIC: 12.6%
💳 Mastercard $MA
•P/FCF: 30.46x
•2025E FCF: $14.73B (+21.6%)
•2026E FCF: $17.28B (+17.3%)
•LTM ROIC: 64.1%
📈 S&P Global $SPGI
•P/FCF: 26.68x
•2025E FCF: $4.85B (+12.3%)
•2026E FCF: $5.49B (+13.2%)
•LTM ROIC: 9.0%
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG
•P/FCF: 27.05x
•2025E FCF: $92.15B (+14.7%)
•2026E FCF: $108.82B (+18.1%)
•LTM ROIC: 30.2%
📸 META $META
•P/FCF: 26.85x
•2025E FCF: $52.17B (+14.1%)
•2026E FCF: $58.94B (+13.0%)
•LTM ROIC: 30.1%
🖨️ ASML Holding $ASML
•P/FCF: 63.68x
•2025E FCF: $9.31B (+73.1%)
•2026E FCF: $11.94B (+28.3%)
•LTM ROIC: 43.8%
📲 Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM
•P/FCF: 49.01x
•2025E FCF: $26.93B (+33.8%)
•2026E FCF: $41.35B (+53.5%)
•LTM ROIC: 20.1%
📉 Intercontinental Exchange $ICE
•P/FCF: 20.15x
•2025E FCF: $4.08B (+11.0%)
•2026E FCF: $4.63B (+13.5%)
•LTM ROIC: 7.7%
#stocks #investing
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