⁠CapMrkt KGB
Shamrock Growth Fund VI & Clover Fund I (Apr-24)

https://t.co/fqFfWWghvO
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$LOW has seen its long-term debt outpace net income growth over the past decade 🏚️🤔

Long-Term Debt CAGR: 13.25%

Net Income CAGR: 12.93%

#stocks #investing https://t.co/Azg6xlbbZV
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 Quality Stocks 2018-2023 FCF CAGR | >10% FCF Growth (Estimates) In 2025 & 2026 | LTM ROIC 💵

📈 S&P Global $SPGI
•FCF CAGR: 15.1%
•2025E: $4.89B (13.4% YoY)
•2026E: $5.51B (12.5% YoY)
•ROIC: 9.0%

🤖 Fortinet $FTNT
•FCF CAGR: 24.1%
•2025E: $2.02B (15.5% YoY)
•2026E: $2.34B (15.8% YoY)
•ROIC: 135.9%

📦 Amazon $AMZN
•FCF CAGR: 13.6%
•2025E: $78.79B (27.1% YoY)
•2026E: $102.26B (29.8% YoY)
•ROIC: 12.6%

💼 AON plc $AON
•FCF CAGR: 17.0%
•2025E: $3.59B (24.5% YoY)
•2026E: $4.17B (16.1% YoY)
•ROIC: 23.8%

📸 Meta Platforms $META
•FCF CAGR: 22.8%
•2025E: $52.17B (14.1% YoY)
•2026E: $58.94B (13.0% YoY)
•ROIC: 30.1%

🖨️ KLA Corp $KLAC
•FCF CAGR: 23.4%
•2025E: $3.65B (23.2% YoY)
•2026E: $4.23B (16.1% YoY)
•ROIC: 33.5%

🚾 Agilent Technilogies $A
•FCF CAGR: 10.1%
•2025E: $1.58B (15.9% YoY)
•2026E: $1.77B (11.3% YoY)
•ROIC: 15.4%

💳 Mastercard $MA
•FCF CAGR: 14.5%
•2025E: $15.46B (25.9% YoY)
•2026E: $17.01 (10.0% YoY)
•ROIC: 64.1%

🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•FCF CAGR: 24.9%
•2025E: $92.11B (14.6% YoY)
•2026E: $106.95B (16.1% YoY)
•ROIC: 30.2%

💨 Watsco $WSO
•FCF CAGR: 27.9%
•2025E: $0.68B (10.4% YoY)
•2026E: $0.77B (12.4% YoY)
•ROIC: 21.3%

#stocks #investing
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $UNH 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.44x
•5-Year Mean: 19.73x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.79%
•5-Year Mean: 5.82%

As you can see, $UNH appears to be trading slightly below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & ~1% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $UNH is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Total Inv: $78.61B
•Long-Term Debt: $63.85B

$UNH has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 4.16x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 18.6%
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 19.4%
•2023: 19.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 24.1%
•2020: 23.8%
•2021: 24.1%
•2022: 25.4%
•2023: 25.0%

$UNH has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $122.49B
•2023: $371.62B
•CAGR: 11.73%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $5.68B
•2023: $25.68B
•CAGR: 16.28%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.50
•2023: $25.12
•CAGR: 16.40%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.05
•2023: $7.29
•CAGR: 21.38%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.02B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.93B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~8.8%, $UNH increased its EPS by ~9.6% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 14.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 8.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 4.0%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & ~1% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $UNH has to grow earnings at a 8.72% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.72%) required growth rate:

2024E: $27.71 (10.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.97 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $34.97 (12.9% YoY)

$UNH has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $UNH ends 2026 with $34.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

19x P/E: $664.43💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

18x P/E: $629.46💵 … ~12.1% CAGR

17x P/E: $594.49💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $UNH appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 18x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean)

That’s a solid rate of return for an excellent capital allocator & wide-moat recession-proof business like $UNH

Today at $489💵 $UNH appears to be a good consideration for investment

However, keep in mind how volatile $UNH (and all health insurers) can get amid regulatory & political risks

Those considering $UNH would be wise to piece into the position, leaving room for additional purchases if $UNH continues to trade down to an even more attractive valuation

E.g. 1/3 of the purchase at $489💵, another 1/3 at $440💵, & 1/3 at $390💵

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.80x
•5-Year Mean: 23.54x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.79%
•5-Year Mean: 4.18%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~3% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $108.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.87B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 332x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 29.8%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.65B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.0%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.1% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 25.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~3% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.40% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.40%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.54 (30.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.57 (13.6% YoY)
2026E: $9.82 (14.6% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.82 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

24x P/E: $235.68💵 … ~12.6% CAGR

23x P/E: $225.86💵 … ~10.7% CAGR

22x P/E: $216.04💵 … ~8.8% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume 23x - 24x earnings (a multiple near its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to trade for 24x (given current growth rate estimates, its moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Today at $176.00💵 $GOOG appears to be an attractive consideration for investment

Those investing today can do well & expect decent returns, albeit without much of a margin of safety

$GOOG presents excellent value & a wide margin of safety closer to $150💵 or ~15% below today’s price

At $150💵, investors can reasonably expect ~13.8% CAGR even assuming 21x earnings

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

AkhenOsiris
CELH NVDA research
tweet

AkhenOsiris
AI is just hype crowd in shambies

NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA PACT: TO COOPERATE ON SPACE, PEACEFUL USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, AI - KCNA - First Squawk
tweet