AkhenOsiris
$ZS Upgrade

JPMorgan analyst Brian Essex upgraded Zscaler from Neutral to Overweight, price target $230 (from $205)
tweet

AkhenOsiris
RT @MikeZaccardi: BofA: Total card spending per HH was up 1.6% y/y in the week ending Jun 8

Retail ex auto spending per HH came in at 0.4% y/y in the week ending Jun 8, Card spending appears to be off to a solid start in June.
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $SHW 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 25.74x
•10-Year Mean: 24.36x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.12%
•10-Year Mean: 4.24%

As you can see, $SHW appears to be trading slightly above fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~5% LESS in earnings per share & ~3% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SHW is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $276.80M
•Long-Term Debt: $8.37B

$SHW has an ok balance sheet, a BBB S&P Credit Rating, & 8.44x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 15.4%
•2020: 19.6%
•2021: 18.1%
•2022: 18.4%
•2023: 22.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 39.2%
•2020: 52.5%
•2021: 61.7%
•2022: 72.9%
•2023: 70.1%

$SHW has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $10.19B
•2023: $23.05B
•CAGR: 8.50%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $917.09M
•2023: $2.63B
•CAGR: 11.12%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.54
•2023: $10.35
•CAGR: 15.08%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 302.69M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 255.40M

By reducing its shares outstanding 15.6%, $SHW increased its EPS by 18.5% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 46.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 15.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.4%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% LESS in EPS & ~3% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SHW has to grow earnings at a 12.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (12.87%) required growth rate:

2024E: $11.39 (10.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $12.71 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $14.24 (12.0% YoY)

$SHW has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $SHW ends 2026 with $14.24 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

26x P/E: $370.24💵 … ~10.1% CAGR

25x P/E: $356.00💵 … ~8.5% CAGR

24x P/E: $341.76💵 … ~6.8% CAGR

23x P/E: $327.52💵 … ~5.0% CAGR

As you can see, $SHW appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >26x earnings, a multiple greater than its 10-year mean & more importantly doesn’t leave us with a margin of safety

Today at $296💵 $SHW trades at a fair valuation

Instead, I’d consider $SHW a worthwhile consideration for investment closer to $270💵 (roughly 9% below today’s price) or at ~23.42x NTM earnings estimates

At $270💵 I can reasonably expect double-digit return potential when assuming a 24x multiple (assuming today’s estimates)

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

⁠iinvested
1Q'24 Third Point Offshore Fund on $AAP

https://t.co/zgQTg2WqAh

More fund letters here:
https://t.co/HhAAZQRRKy https://t.co/1sr3C8DuvX
tweet

⁠iinvested
1Q'24 RGA Investment Advisors on $MRVI, $SUVPF

Read the full commentary here:
https://t.co/HhAAZQSpA6 https://t.co/kA8W4TcuFt
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
8 Quality Stocks That Increased Normalized EPS ANNUALLY Since 2013 | LTM ROIC🧵

#stocks #investing https://t.co/t9IymrC9sY
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks With Double The YTD Return Of $SPY (+12.02%) | NTM P/E | 5-Year Mean P/E 💵

#stocks #investing https://t.co/Tgl4EQ96UF
tweet