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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
~3 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $ACN stating:

โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโ€™s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306๐Ÿ’ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

Iโ€™d reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐Ÿ’ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโ€™s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026โ€

Since then, $ACN dropped ~7% & is currently trading at $285๐Ÿ’ต as my research suggested

Tomorrow I will share an updated analysis on $ACN ๐Ÿ’ฏ

#stocks #investing
_______

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ."

A sober valuation analysis on $ACN ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 23.98x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 5.20%

As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $ACN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $5.12B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $71.64M

$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2018: 54.2%
โ€ข2019: 42.1%
โ€ข2020: 30.8%
โ€ข2021: 32.0%
โ€ข2022: 38.2%
โ€ข2023: 33.8%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2018: 41.2%
โ€ข2019: 37.9%
โ€ข2020: 32.1%
โ€ข2021: 31.9%
โ€ข2022: 32.6%
โ€ข2023: 28.5%

$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: $28.56B
โ€ข2023: $64.11B
โ€ขCAGR: 8.42%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: $2.93B
โ€ข2023: $8.99B
โ€ขCAGR: 11.86%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $4.21
โ€ข2023: $11.67
โ€ขCAGR: 10.73%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $1.62
โ€ข2023: $4.48
โ€ขCAGR: 10.70%

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:

2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)

$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different m[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ ~3 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $ACN stating: โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average &โ€ฆ
ultiples

25x P/E: $370.75๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.3% CAGR

24x P/E: $355.92๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~8.4% CAGR

23x P/E: $341.09๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~6.5% CAGR

22x P/E: $326.26๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~4.5% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโ€™s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306๐Ÿ’ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

Iโ€™d reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐Ÿ’ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโ€™s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026

#stocks #investing

Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $ACN ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.04x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 24.03x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.78%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 5.18%

As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading slightly below fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $ACN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $5.12B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $71.64M

$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2019: 42.1%
โ€ข2020: 30.8%
โ€ข2021: 32.0%
โ€ข2022: 38.2%
โ€ข2023: 33.8%
โ€ขLTM: 32.3%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2019: 37.9%
โ€ข2020: 32.1%
โ€ข2021: 31.9%
โ€ข2022: 32.6%
โ€ข2023: 28.5%
โ€ขLTM: 27.4%

$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: $28.56B
โ€ข2023: $64.11B
โ€ขCAGR: 8.42%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: $2.93B
โ€ข2023: $8.99B
โ€ขCAGR: 11.86%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $4.21
โ€ข2023: $11.67
โ€ขCAGR: 10.73%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $1.62
โ€ข2023: $4.65
โ€ขCAGR: 11.12%

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in EPS & ~11% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 11.52% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.52%) required growth rate:

2024E: $12.15 (4.1% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.19 (8.6% YoY)
2026E: $14.80 (12.2% YoY)

$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.80 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

25x P/E: $370.00๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~14.2% CAGR

24x P/E: $355.20๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~12.2% CAGR

23x P/E: $340.40๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.2% CAGR

22x P/E: $325.26๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~8.0% CAGR

21x P/E: $310.80๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~5.9% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >23x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (~10-year average multiple, yet arguably a bit rich given its growth rate)

Today at $284๐Ÿ’ต it appears that $ACN valuation is being re-rated due to AI-related competitive pressures & itโ€™s growth slowdown, among other things

To ensure some margin of safety, Iโ€™d reconsider $ACN closer to $258๐Ÿ’ต or at ~21.00x forward estimates (~9% below todayโ€™s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 21x end multiple in 2026

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: How does a stock fall -72% from $548 to $150? ๐Ÿ”ด $PAYC

When it trades for ~120x earnings.

Before a period of aggressively rising rates.

And growth doesnโ€™t justify the valuation.

Hard to justify 120x earnings, youโ€™d need many years of 60%+ growth.

Valuations. Matter.

#stocks https://t.co/0zX6nwZLeZ
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $CRM ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.30x
โ€ข3-Year Mean: 38.89x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.18%
โ€ข3-Year Mean: 3.68%

As you can see, $CRM appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~67% MORE in earnings per share & ~40% MORE in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $CRM is a good business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $14.19B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $8.43B

$CRM has an excellent balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 352x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL๐Ÿ†—
โ€ข2020: 1.2%
โ€ข2021: 0.9%
โ€ข2022: 0.8%
โ€ข2023: 2.5%
โ€ข2024: 8.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY๐Ÿ†—
โ€ข2020: 0.5%
โ€ข2021: 10.8%
โ€ข2022: 2.9%
โ€ข2023: 0.4%
โ€ข2024: 7.0%

$CRM return metrics are ok, although more recently trending in the right direction

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2014: $4.07B
โ€ข2024: $34.86B
โ€ขCAGR: 23.95%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2014: $576.36M
โ€ข2024: $9.49B
โ€ขCAGR: 32.34%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2014: $0.35
โ€ข2024: $8.22
โ€ขCAGR: 37.11%

SHARE BUYBACKSโŒ
โ€ข2014 Shares Outstanding: 597.61M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 984.00M

By increasing its shares outstanding ~64%, $CRM diluted its EPS by ~39% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 75.5%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 17.2%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 11.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~67% MORE in EPS & ~40% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $CRM has to grow earnings at an 11.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.65%) required growth rate:

2025E: $9.91 (20.5% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $11.05 (11.5% YoY)
2027E: $12.65 (14.5% YoY)

$CRM has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $CRM ends 2027 with $12.65 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

25x P/E: $316.25๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~12.5% CAGR

24x P/E: $303.60๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.8% CAGR

23x P/E: $290.95๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~9.1% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >24x earnings for $CRM to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)

Today at $234.44๐Ÿ’ต $CRM appears to be worthwhile consideration for investment especially when you assess the trajectory of the companyโ€™s FCF & Net Income margins (steadily trending higher with further room to expand)

To ensure some margin of safety, if thereโ€™s further weakness, it could be wise to piece into the position, for example:

Initiating ~50% of the position at ~$234๐Ÿ’ต & adding a second tranche at ~$200๐Ÿ’ต or at ~20x NTM earnings

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @SaaSletter: This seems to partially refute the *macro* excuses on recent earnings

With macro defined as macroeconomics, not just software demand
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