Offshore
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Antonio Linares
Where do you need to be on this curve in order to not be displaced by AI at your job in the next 5 years? https://t.co/Cy7mds0Ms3
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Where do you need to be on this curve in order to not be displaced by AI at your job in the next 5 years? https://t.co/Cy7mds0Ms3
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
To be fair to @BillAckman, he thought there was an injustice and he tried to do something about.
FairPlay.
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To be fair to @BillAckman, he thought there was an injustice and he tried to do something about.
FairPlay.
I took an @Uber today and for the first time was offered a NYC yellow cab. I thought good for Uber supporting the cabbies. I asked the driver about his experience with Uber and he surprised me by saying it was bad.
He explained that even when the passenger agreed to pay a tip to the driver on the Uber app, the driver did not receive a tip and Uber kept the tip for itself.
I said that this could not be true so he asked me to test it. When the ride finished I added a $5.00 tip. His screen showed that I paid no tip.
The driver was right. In short, Uber is massively increasing its margins and profits in NYC by ripping off NYC cab drivers.
I texted @dkhos Dara from Uber midday today and sent this photo of the driver’s screen. He did not respond. I like Dara, but this is really bad. I can only assume that Dara is unaware of this.
Uber needs to immediately return the stolen funds with interest to the NYC taxi drivers and to other drivers in any other markets where they are doing the same and they should deeply apologize. And Uber should restate its earnings to reflect this overstatement of margins and profits.
This needs to happen now. @ericadamsfornyc Mayor Adams, I am sure agrees. tweet
Offshore
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Giuliano
Muchísimas gracias por compartir el artículo @investordotdev!
Fue una interesante escritura. https://t.co/kMcaf5FlSE
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Muchísimas gracias por compartir el artículo @investordotdev!
Fue una interesante escritura. https://t.co/kMcaf5FlSE
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Offshore
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Q-Cap
Brookfield CEO says public mkts have turned into a casino and institutions will prefer to be invested in private markets in the next 10 yrs due to better transparency.
This is coming from a company that needs 1000 forensic accountants to understand their holdings structure. https://t.co/3KfjasFIPh
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Brookfield CEO says public mkts have turned into a casino and institutions will prefer to be invested in private markets in the next 10 yrs due to better transparency.
This is coming from a company that needs 1000 forensic accountants to understand their holdings structure. https://t.co/3KfjasFIPh
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $LULU 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 21.14x
•10-Year Mean: 35.94x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.80%
•10-Year Mean: 2.16%
As you can see, $LULU appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~70% MORE in earnings per share & ~75% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LULU is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
•Total Debt: $1.40B
$LULU has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 32.5%
•2021: 23.8%
•2022: 37.4%
•2023: 40.4%
•2024: 39.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 38.0%
•2021: 26.1%
•2022: 36.8%
•2023: 29.0%
•2024: 42.0%
$LULU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $1.59B
•2024: $9.62B
•CAGR: 19.72%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $171.93M
•2024: $1.64B
•CAGR: 25.33%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.91
•2024: $12.77
•CAGR: 20.92%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 146.04M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 127.06M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~13%, $LULU increased its EPS by ~15% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~70% MORE in EPS & ~75% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LULU has to grow earnings at a 10.57% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over next few years to be slightly above the (10.57%) required growth rate:
2025E: $14.16 (10.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $15.86 (12.0% YoY)
$LULU has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $LULU ends 2026 with $15.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
25x P/E: $396.50💵 … ~19.2% CAGR
24x P/E: $380.64💵 … ~16.2% CAGR
23x P/E: $364.78💵 … ~13.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $348.92💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
As you can see, $LULU appears to have attractive return potential IF it can demand a >22x multiple
However, it’s important to keep in mind that it’s difficult to maintain a strong competitive advantage (over long periods of time) in the athletic apparel space & recent growth concerns amid increased competition is why $LULU stock is trading near the lowest end of its historical multiple range
$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone
I don’t believe it’s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth — $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 🤯)
Today at $300💵 $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment — albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closely
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $LULU 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 21.14x
•10-Year Mean: 35.94x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.80%
•10-Year Mean: 2.16%
As you can see, $LULU appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~70% MORE in earnings per share & ~75% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LULU is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
•Total Debt: $1.40B
$LULU has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 32.5%
•2021: 23.8%
•2022: 37.4%
•2023: 40.4%
•2024: 39.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 38.0%
•2021: 26.1%
•2022: 36.8%
•2023: 29.0%
•2024: 42.0%
$LULU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $1.59B
•2024: $9.62B
•CAGR: 19.72%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $171.93M
•2024: $1.64B
•CAGR: 25.33%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.91
•2024: $12.77
•CAGR: 20.92%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 146.04M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 127.06M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~13%, $LULU increased its EPS by ~15% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~70% MORE in EPS & ~75% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LULU has to grow earnings at a 10.57% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over next few years to be slightly above the (10.57%) required growth rate:
2025E: $14.16 (10.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $15.86 (12.0% YoY)
$LULU has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $LULU ends 2026 with $15.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
25x P/E: $396.50💵 … ~19.2% CAGR
24x P/E: $380.64💵 … ~16.2% CAGR
23x P/E: $364.78💵 … ~13.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $348.92💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
As you can see, $LULU appears to have attractive return potential IF it can demand a >22x multiple
However, it’s important to keep in mind that it’s difficult to maintain a strong competitive advantage (over long periods of time) in the athletic apparel space & recent growth concerns amid increased competition is why $LULU stock is trading near the lowest end of its historical multiple range
$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone
I don’t believe it’s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth — $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 🤯)
Today at $300💵 $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment — albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closely
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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